Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
ERCOT issues report on capacity and reserve margins in Texas
12 December 2019IHS Markit Expert
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) on December 5
released its December Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) Report,
which includes planning reserve margins for the next five
years.
The planning reserve margin for summer 2020 is forecasted to be
10.6%, based on resource updates provided to ERCOT from generation
developers and an updated peak demand forecast. This is 2% higher
than the 8.6% reserve margin ERCOT reported as it entered the
summer 2019 peak demand season.
"ERCOT maintained system reliability through record-setting
electric demand and high temperatures this summer," said ERCOT
President and CEO Bill Magness. "We anticipate there will continue
to be sufficient generation to meet Texas' growing power
needs."
The ERCOT region continues to experience above-normal growth in
peak electricity demand due to strong load growth in Far West Texas
and along the Gulf Coast where new industrial facilities are being
constructed.
For 2020, the forecasted peak demand is 76,696 MW. ERCOT's
current system-wide peak demand record is 74,820 MW, set on August
12, 2019, between 4 and 5 p.m.
Based on preliminary data from generation owners, new capacity
additions from planned projects for summer 2020 total 7,633 MW.
Based on ERCOT's current interconnection queue, the majority of new
generation projects are renewable and small, flexible gas-fired
resources.
Since the May 2019 CDR report, two gas-fired plants totaling
1,227 MW have been canceled, and eight solar projects with a 1,056
MW capacity contribution have been delayed. The CDR includes a
Generation Resource Scenarios tab that identifies generation units
that have informally announced plans to retire. Until ERCOT
receives an official Notice of Suspension of Operation from the
owners, these units will continue to be reflected in the CDR.
Resources totaling 1,058 MW of installed capacity have been
approved by ERCOT for commercial operations since the May CDR, and
a total of 4,654 MW of installed capacity became eligible for
inclusion in the CDR.
The CDR report includes a look forward at all currently
operational and planned resource capacity as reported to ERCOT by
resource developers and owners. It provides annual projections of
ERCOT's planning reserve margins for the summer and winter seasons.
The planning reserve margin is the difference between the total
generation available in the ERCOT system and the forecasted firm
peak demand, with the difference expressed as a percentage of the
forecasted firm peak demand.
ERCOT manages the flow of electric power to more than 25 million
Texas customers - representing about 90% of the state's electric
load.
