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Global PMI surveys to add insight to growth, hiring and price
trends at end of second quarter
UK PMI surveys to give guidance to Bank of England policy
stance
US non-farm payrolls to follow PMI surveys and FOMC
minutes
Australia's policy meeting in spotlight
The coming week sees important data releases which include
worldwide PMI surveys and US employment numbers. Policy highlights
include the Reserve Bank of Australia's monthly meeting and the
release of FOMC minutes.
Global PMI updates
Key business survey data will be eyed for any signs that
escalating trade wars and rising uncertainty are dampening growth.
The global economic expansion picked up in May,
according to the PMI surveys, but remained weaker than seen at
the start of the year. Flash surveys for the US, Eurozone and Japan
have meanwhile indicated that growth looks to have become
increasingly dependent on service sectors in June, with
manufacturing seeing downside risks as export trends
deteriorated.
UK interest rate guidance
In the UK,
the PMI data will be especially important in terms of guiding
Bank of England policy. Rate setters will be hoping to see growth
strengthen to justify an increasingly hawkish stance. Three of the
nine Monetary Policy Committee members voted to hike interest rates
at the June meeting. The next meeting is scheduled for 2nd August,
meaning the June data will be the latest available services PMI at
that gathering.
US PMI surveys and employment report
Markets will also receive some guidance on the likely trajectory
of US interest rates amid a flurry of news updates. The minutes of
the June FOMC meeting will add colour to the recent rate hike
decision and outlook for rates, while PMI survey updates from IHS
Markit and the ISM will provide new information for policymakers,
as will the June employment report. The flash PMI survey's
employment index, which
acts as a reliable guide to non-farm payroll data, pointed to
another healthy 190k rise in June.
Australia policy meeting
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets to set policy at a time when
expectations of a hike have been pushed back into 2019, though an
imminent rate rise has by no means been discounted by many.
Economic growth accelerated to 3.1% in the first quarter and
CBA PMI surveys have been resilient so far in the second
quarter. However, while price pressures have also picked up, wage
growth remains subdued and uncertainty about the global economic
environment has intensified, suggesting policymakers will err on
the side of caution and hold rates.
* Includes June flash data.
Download the report for a full diary of key economic
releases.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are
compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The
monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at
private sector companies, and are available only via subscription.
The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the
overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide
insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation,
exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI
data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better
understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover
opportunities.
