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Latin American countries are gradually beginning to reopen after
18 months of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-virus-related
restrictions. Although the region is set to grow in 2021, long-run
political and economic-related grievances have been exacerbated by
the pandemic. Here are a few factors to watch in the coming
months.
Corruption: Increasing corruption-related
scandals leading to road blockades and business interruption,
particularly in Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua.
Tax increases: To replace pandemic-related
revenue shortfalls, if they affect the population, such as the
proposed VAT rises in Colombia and Costa Rica.
Crime: Increased incidents of crime, such as
robbery and extortion, during the post-pandemic downturn, likely to
trigger protests in countries such as Mexico and Haiti.
Prior consultation and natural resources: Local
indigenous communities demanding prior consultation or opposing
extractive projects or use of water resources in countries such as
Argentina, Ecuador, and Peru.
Gender and equality issues: Unrest against
gender violence in Mexico and Argentina and to demand equality in
Chile.
Healthcare: Demands for access to the COVID-19
vaccine, as several governments are behind their vaccination
targets, such as Argentina, Ecuador, and Peru.
Elections: Politically motivated protests in
countries such as Brazil, Chile, Honduras, and Nicaragua in the
run-up to elections, or over the political transition in Haiti and
calls for free elections in Venezuela.
Economic policy: Unrest over spending cuts and
privatization efforts in Brazil, Ecuador, and Uruguay and demands
for COVID-19 financial assistance across the region. Changes to the
state-controlled model in Cuba.
Job protection: Unrest against dismissals
during the pandemic, demands for employment and higher salaries,
including in Argentina, Ecuador, and Mexico
Police brutality: Against security forces seen
as using excessive violence when containing protests or enforcing
COVID-19-virus-related restrictions, including in Brazil, Chile,
and Colombia.
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Posted 04 October 2021 by Ailsa Rosales, Country Risk Analyst, Latin America and Caribbean, S&P Global Market Intelligence and
Carla Selman, Principal Research Analyst, Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence and
Carlos Cardenas, Director, Latin America Country Risk and Forecasting, S&P Global Market Intelligence and
Veronica Retamales Burford, Senior Research Analyst, Latin America Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
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