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December Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit

Monthly GDP Index rises 0.8% in November 2017

The Monthly GDP Index rose 0.8% in November, following a 0.3% decline in October that was revised down from a previously reported 0.1% decline. The jump in November reflected sizable gains in both inventory investment and domestic final sales, with little contribution from net exports. Averaged over October and November, monthly GDP was 1.5% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a 0.3% increase in monthly GDP in December.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Ben Herzon is is an economist for the US Macro team at Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit
Kathleen Navin is an economist for the US Macro team at Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit

Posted 29 December 2017

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