Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
All major European and US equity indices closed higher, while
APAC markets closed mixed. US government bonds closed mixed and
most benchmark European bonds were higher. European iTraxx and
CDX-NA closed slightly tighter across IG and high yield. Oil and
natural gas closed higher, the US dollar was flat, and gold,
copper, and silver were lower on the day.
Please note that we are now including a link to the profiles of
contributing authors who are available for one-on-one discussions
through our newly launched Experts
by IHS Markit platform.
Americas
Major US equity indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq +0.7%
and S&P 500 +0.6% closing at new all-time record highs; Russell
2000 +1.3% and DJIA +1.0%.
10yr US govt bonds closed +1bp/1.49% yield and 30yr bonds
-1bp/2.10% yield.
CDX-NAIG closed -1bp/48bps and CDX-NAHY -3bps/276bps.
DXY US dollar index closed flat/91.81.
Gold closed -0.4%/$1,777 per troy oz, silver -0.2%/$26.05 per
troy oz, and copper -0.5%/$4.31 per pound.
Crude oil closed +0.3%/$73.30 per barrel and natural gas closed
+2.5%/$3.44 per mmbtu.
President Biden and a group of centrist senators agreed to a
roughly $1 trillion infrastructure plan Thursday, securing a
long-sought bipartisan deal that lawmakers and the White House will
now attempt to shepherd through Congress alongside a broader
package sought by Democrats. With $579 billion of spending above
expected federal levels and a total of $973 billion of investment
over five years and $1.2 trillion if continued over eight, the
agreement will make new investments in the electrical grid,
transit, roads and bridges and other forms of infrastructure.
(WSJ)
The Senate today (June 24) overwhelmingly approved a bipartisan
climate bill to create a USDA-certification program to help farmers
enroll in carbon markets and ensure the ag sector is rewarded for
adopting climate-friendly practices. The Growing Climate Solutions
Act passed by a vote of 92-8, the strong support for the measure a
rare sign of bipartisanship touted by proponents. The potential
financial benefits of carbon credits "hold a great deal of promise,
however, producers and landowners must navigate a complex and
costly landscape in order to access these markets," said Boozman, a
co-sponsor and ranking member of the Senate Ag Committee. "The
Growing Climate Solutions Act provides a framework for producers to
access technical assistance, guidance and resources in these
emerging markets as they investigate whether to pursue this new
opportunity." (IHS Markit Food and Agricultural Policy's JR
Pegg)
The first quarter of 2021 saw record-shattering growth in total
state personal income with an unprecedented 59.7% annualized rate
of expansion, topping the prior record of 35.8% set in the second
quarter of 2020. A 548% surge in transfer payment income was the
dominant factor, accounting for 92.6% of the total increase in
state personal income levels. The increase in transfer payments
during the first quarter resulted from the $600 economic impact
payment that was part of the Coronavirus Response and Relief
Supplemental Appropriations (CARES) Act, along with the $1,400
impact payment and temporary increase of $300 per week to state
unemployment insurance that were part of the American Rescue Plan
Act. Net earnings increased a modest 4.4% q/q, while dividends,
interest, and rents were unchanged from the prior quarter. Personal
income grew the fastest in Mississippi (89.3% quarter on quarter
[q/q]), West Virginia (88.3% q/q), and Kentucky (83.4% q/q) where
transfer payments make up a large portion of total income. Growth
was the slowest in the District of Columbia (31.1% q/q),
Connecticut (42.0% q/q), and California (42.8% q/q). (IHS Markit
Economist Alexander Minelli)
US seasonally adjusted (SA) initial claims for unemployment
insurance fell by 7,000 to 411,000 in the week ended 19 June.
Pennsylvania (up 21,905), California (up 15,131), and Kentucky (up
9,172) were the largest contributors to initial claims in the week
ended 19 June; these states were also the three largest
contributors in the prior week. (IHS Markit Economist Akshat Goel)
Seasonally adjusted continuing claims (in regular state
programs) fell by 144,000 to 3,390,000 in the week ended 12 June,
the lowest level since the week ended 21 March 2020. The insured
unemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage point to 2.4%.
In the week ended 5 June, continuing claims for Pandemic
Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) rose by 107,931 to
5,273,180.
There were 104,682 unadjusted initial claims for PUA in the
week ended 19 June. In the week ended 5 June, continuing claims for
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) dropped by 175,357 to
5,950,167.
US manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose 2.3% in May,
more than reversing an April decline and continuing along a firming
trend. Shipments of durable goods rose 0.4% in May, and inventories
rose 0.7%. (IHS Markit Economists Ben
Herzon and Lawrence Nelson)
Each of these indicators reinforces the notion that the goods
sector remains hot. Orders and shipments of durable goods remain
well above their pre-pandemic levels, and inventories are
climbing.
Spending on goods, more generally, has replaced spending on
some services, as households have been cautious about participating
in socially dense, service-sector activities.
As vaccination rates increase, and as local authorities
continue to relax restrictions on various social and economic
activities (these restrictions are in fact nearly gone), spending
on services will firm and spending on goods will retreat. In the
meantime, manufacturers are doing all they can to keep pace with
elevated demand for goods.
Manufacturers' inventories were revised higher for April and
rose in line with our assumption for May. This added about $5
billion to our second-quarter forecast of inventory
investment.
Consumption of gasoline edged up last week and remains within
the lower portion of a range that we would consider to be normal
for this time of year. This indicates nearly full recovery in
internal mobility. Meanwhile, passenger throughput at US airports
in recent days, seasonally adjusted, has been running at about 87%
of the January 2020 level. Recovery in air travel is nearly
complete. (IHS Markit Economists Ben
Herzon and Joel
Prakken)
General Motors (GM) and Shell are launching a pilot program to
expand access to renewable energy, including providing free
charging to owners of GM electric vehicles (EVs) using renewable
energy. According to a joint statement from the two companies, the
program is to be available to certain customers in Texas, United
States, through a wholly owned subsidiary of Shell called MP2
Energy. The statement said that the collaboration would "provide
comprehensive energy solutions programs to GM's customers and
supply chain partners, including fixed-rate home energy plans
backed by 100 percent renewable energy resources". In addition, in
mid-2021, owners of EVs from GM brands are to be able to select a
home-energy plan including an option of free overnight hours of EV
charging. (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Stephanie
Brinley)
Motional has introduced an extended public dataset of
autonomous vehicle (AV) testing, named nuPlan. The company calls
this the world's first benchmark for AV planning, as it includes a
large-scale machine-learning dataset and a "virtual driving test"
that measures the performance of vehicle planning methods. An
expanded version of Motional's nuScenes, which was published in
March 2019, nuPlan is to be available to the public later this
year. NuPlan's data is not annotated by people and is performed by
machines, and the quality is almost same. Furthermore, the
collection represents a significant expansion, containing around
500 million pictures and 100 million LiDAR scans. (IHS Markit
Automotive Mobility's Surabhi Rajpal)
Embark Trucks is going public through a reverse merger
agreement with Northern Genesis Acquisition Corp II, a
special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC). The combined entity's
value by equity and enterprise is expected to reach about USD5.16
billion and USD4.55 billion respectively. As part of the agreement,
Embark Trucks will receive an injection of around USD614 million in
gross cash proceeds, including USD414 million from the SPAC and
USD200 million from private investment in public equity (PIPE)
funding. Mergers with SPACs have become a common way for companies
to go public during the COVID-19 virus pandemic, which has badly
hurt automotive and mobility businesses. Autonomous vehicle (AV)
companies are looking to public markets for financial support as
they plan to launch their technology at a commercial scale. Embark
takes a different approach to autonomous trucking than other tech
firms as it provides AV software as a service, rather than building
and running a fleet of trucks itself. Carriers and fleets can pay a
per-mile subscription fee to access Embark's services. (IHS Markit
Automotive Mobility's Surabhi Rajpal)
The latest data from Argentina's National Institute of
Statistics and Censuses (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y
Censos: INDEC) show that GDP increased by 2.5% year on year (y/y)
in the first quarter of 2021. Correcting for seasonality, GDP
during the first quarter of 2021 increased by 2.6% quarter on
quarter (q/q) after rising by 4.4% q/q in the previous quarter (IHS
Markit Economist Paula
Diosquez-Rice)
A few sectors recorded a rise in annual terms: activity
increased in the construction and wholesale and retail sectors; the
most dynamic sector was the financial intermediation sector, which
increased by 10.6% y/y.
GDP data shows significant annual declines in the first quarter
for some sectors; for example in mining; utilities; transport and
communication; non-profit and social services; education services;
and the health sector. The hospitality and restaurants sector
posted a decline of 35.5% y/y.
Europe/Middle East/Africa
Major European equity indices closed higher; Italy +1.4%, Spain
+1.3%, France +1.2%, Germany +0.9%, and UK +0.5%.
Most 10yr European govt bonds closed higher except for France
flat; UK -4bps, Italy -3bps, Spain -2bps, and Germany -1bp.
iTraxx-Europe closed -1bp/46bps and iTraxx-Xover
-3bps/227bps.
Brent crude closed +0.4%/$74.81 per barrel.
The Renewable Infrastructure Group (TRIG) has partially
suspended operations at the 396MW Merkur wind farm pending further
investigations into signs of stress fatigue suffered by its GE
Haliade-X 160-6MW turbines. According to TRIG, routine inspections
discovered; the issue on certain areas of the support structure of
the helihoist on some of the turbines. Operations were partially
suspended as part of a precautionary measure, with some of the
turbines now back online. As the turbines are under warranty, the
lost revenue experienced during the downtime will be protected,
subject to a cap, and TRIG is not expecting that the cap will be
exceeded. The turbines, supplied by GE Renewable Energy, have a
10-year operations and maintenance (O&M) service agreement. GE
has acknowledged the issue but pointed out that the affected areas
are not part of the primary nacelle frame. (IHS Markit Upstream
Costs and Technology's Monish Thakkar)
SAIC Maxus, a wholly owned subsidiary of SAIC Motor, is
shipping 750 electric vans to delivery company DPD in the UK,
according to China Daily. The order includes 500 units of 3.5-tonne
vans and 250 units of smaller ones. These vans will double DPD's
fleet of battery vehicle to 1,500, out of the total number of 8,000
vehicles in its fleet. (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Nitin
Budhiraja)
A regulation allowing insect processed animal protein (PAP) to
be used for pig and poultry feed will open up 65% of the EU's €50
billion compound feed market, according to the International
Platform of Insects for Food and Feed (IPIFF). The European
Commission is due to adopt the regulation updating an annex (IV) to
a 2001 law to allow insect PAP in pig and poultry feed this autumn,
after the regulatory scrutiny period ends in the European
Parliament and Council. Insect PAP was already authorised for feed
used in aquaculture in 2017 and now it is to be rolled out to pigs
and poultry. (IHS Markit Food and Agricultural Policy's Sara
Lewis)
German business confidence has picked up anew owing to a
substantial loosening of COVID-19-related restrictions. In June,
the headline Ifo index, which reflects business confidence in
industry, services, trade, and construction combined, improved
markedly further from 99.2 to a two-and-a-half year high of 101.8.
(IHS Markit Economist Timo
Klein)
Improvements were most pronounced in the retail and services
sectors, as was to be expected because of the lifting of many
restrictions for stores, hotels/restaurants, and the tourism
business in response to rapidly declining COVID-19 cases.
Expectations in the manufacturing and construction sectors
improved only slightly, as supply-chain bottlenecks are of
increasing concern, either owing to actual shortages of materials
or associated large input price increases.
Business expectations advanced anew from 102.9 to 104.0, with
the pace of improvement thus slowing down. This should not
surprise, as this is a 10-year high already and the series high of
106.1 (November 2010) is coming into sight.
After media reports on the subject, Audi issued a statement
clarifying its intent to release only battery electric vehicles
(BEVs) on the global market beginning in 2026, and that it plans to
phase out production of its last internal combustion engines (ICEs)
by 2033. The statement did not set out specifics of the product
plans, but clarified some of Audi's direction. Audi also confirmed
that production of its "final completely newly developed combustion
engine model will start in just four years. And beginning in 2026,
the premium brand will only release new models onto the global
market that are powered purely by electricity." However, Audi did
not detail when it expects to discontinue production of ICEs or
models that use them. The company also notes that it sees demand
for combustion engine models in China beyond 2033, and "there could
be a supply of vehicles there with combustion engines manufactured
locally." (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Stephanie
Brinley)
France's business sentiment index has risen by 5 points to 113
in June, reaching its highest level since mid-2007. The index had
rebounded strongly from 96 to 108 in May, as COVID-19-related
restrictions were eased. (HIS Markit Economist Diego
Iscaro)
June's rise in the composite index has been mainly driven by
improved sentiment in the service sector. The service sector
confidence index has risen from 107 to 113, boosted by respondents'
more upbeat view on the general economic outlook, and more positive
expected activity.
Service-sector firms' expected selling prices also rose sharply
in June, standing above their long-term average for the second
consecutive month. Confidence has improved among all the service
sub-sectors, although it increased particularly sharply in
accommodation/food.
The easing of restrictions also led to a sharp increase in
sentiment in the retail sector. The index has stood at 113, its
highest level since the beginning of the series in 1991.
Confidence in the manufacturing sector has remained stable in
June, following five successive increases. While manufacturers
reported improved order books and brighter general economic
expectations, their assessment of their past activity was less
positive than in May.
The 1,400-metric-ton substation topside for RWE's 342 MW
Kaskasi wind farm development in the German North Sea has arrived
at Bladt Industries Aalborg, Denmark site for further outfitting
with the electrical equipment. The substation topside was shipped
from Energomontaz-Pólnoc Gdynia's (EPG) assembly yard in Gdynia,
Poland. Bladt was awarded the turnkey engineering, procurement,
construction, and installation (EPCI) contract for the substation
in April 2020, with the offshore installation scheduled in the
first half of 2022. The contract is being executed in cooperation
with Semco Maritime and ISC Engineering. RWE (ex-Innogy) also
awarded Bladt a contract for the fabrication and design of the 38
monopile turbine foundations to be installed on the development.
(IHS Markit Upstream Costs and Technology's Jie Sheng Aw)
The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Georgia
(NBG) in its June monetary policy meeting decided to leave the
refinancing interest rate unchanged at 9.5%. Before this, it had
increased the policy rate by 100 basis points in May and by 50
basis points in April, in a monetary tightening turn following the
cumulative rate cuts of 100 basis points during 2020. (IHS Markit
Economist Lilit
Gevorgyan)
The latest inflation from the National Statistical Service of
Georgia (GeoStat) show that consumer prices in May increased by
7.7% year on year (y/y), after rising by a sharply accelerated rate
of 7.2% y/y in both March and April. The surge of over 17% y/y in
transport service prices contributed 2.1 percentage points to the
annual inflation rate, while the growth of both utility and food
prices had around a 1.1-percentage-point impact.
The MPC also notes signs of significant recovery of aggregate
demand, supported by accelerating credit growth and continuing
fiscal stimulus.
However, the central bank adds that the recently increased
external foreign currency inflows are counterbalancing the above
factors, by contributing to "positive dynamics in the foreign
exchange market". Thereby they undoubtedly reference the recent
strengthening of the lari, which suppresses the risk of imported
inflation, given that the pass-through of depreciation to inflation
is still very direct in Georgia, due to the country's high
dependence on imports for both consumption and investment
goods.
Israelis can expect to start donning masks again and the
country has put off the reopening of its borders to foreign
tourists, after its bid to return to a post-Covid normal was
hobbled by a surge in infections linked to the highly transmissible
delta variant. New cases were down to the single digits in
mid-June, but this week topped 100 for three days straight. Most of
the new cases have been unvaccinated children and people returning
from abroad. Some of the sick had been fully vaccinated with the
Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. (Bloomberg)
South Africa's headline inflation rate accelerated to 5.2% y/y
in May from 4.4% y/y in the previous month, meaning that the
official inflation rate is now well above the mid-point of the 3-6%
target range of the central bank. (IHS Markit Economist Thea
Fourie)
The transport component added a full 2.0 percentage points to
the annual rise in headline inflation, followed by food and
non-alcoholic beverages at 1.2 percentage point and the alcoholic
and tobacco category at 0.7 percentage point.
The steep drop in global oil prices during April-May 2020 left
the base of comparison for fuel prices in April-May 2021
exceptionally low. As a result, transport costs increased by 15.3%
y/y in May.
'Core' inflation, excluding food, fuel, and energy, showed no
month-on-month change and averaged 3.1% y/y during May.
Asia-Pacific
APAC equity markets closed mixed; India +0.8%, South Korea
+0.3%, Hong Kong +0.2%, Mainland China/Japan flat, and Australia
-0.3%.
On 21 June China's central bank, the People's Bank of China,
issued a notice restricting the ability of China's financial sector
to conduct activities related to cryptocurrency. (IHS Markit
Economists Brian
Lawson and David Wilson)
It stated that virtual currencies "disrupt the normal economic
and financial order", since they "breed the risk of illegal
cross-border transfer of assets, money laundering and other illegal
and criminal activities".
It specified that they also "seriously infringe the people's
property safety", stating that banks and the Alipay payment system
must not provide "account opening, registration, and registration
for related activities" involving cryptocurrencies.
In response China's Postal Savings Bank banned use of its
accounts to provide "token issuance financing and "virtual currency
transactions".
South Korea's market for carbonated water has grown nearly 29%
over the past five years amid growing consumer interest in
low-calorie drinks, a state food trade firm said Wednesday. The
country's Yonhap news agency says that 24.3 million liters of
bottled water were sold in South Korea in 2020, up 28.6% from five
years earlier, according to Euromonitor. Euromonitor has projected
local sales of carbonated bottled water to reach 28.8 million
liters in 2025, up 18.5% from 2020. Last year, Ilhwa Co.'s Chojung
Sparkling Water was the top-selling brand with a market share of
30.9%, followed by Lotte Chilsung Beverage Co.'s Trevi with 29.9%.
South Korean sales of carbonated soft drinks were 1.27 billion
liters last year, up 20.3% from 2015, and the market is expected to
reach 1.41 billion liters in 2025. Coca-Cola was the most popular
brand with a market share of 23.2%, followed by Chilsung Cider with
17.5% and Pepsi with 7.0%. (IHS Markit Food and Agricultural
Commodities' Neil Murray)
The Urban Air Mobility (UAM) division of Hyundai Motor Group
has partnered with ANRA Technologies - a leading international
provider of end-to-end drone operations and traffic management
solutions for unmanned system operators and airspace managers - to
begin developing the operating environment for the advanced air
mobility (AAM) industry, according to a company statement. "We are
pleased to partner with ANRA Technologies to begin building toward
the safe and efficient integration of AAM into existing airspace,"
said Hyundai Motor Group's UAM division chief operating officer
Pamela Cohn, adding, "As an emerging mobility solution, it is
critical diverse parties work together to co-create the AAM
ecosystem, including its necessary digital and physical
infrastructure. ANRA brings a unique background of operational
history in the drone services sector that will help define the
operating environment for all AAM vehicles". (IHS Markit
AutoIntelligence's Jamal Amir)
Tata Motors has announced three financing solutions for
passenger vehicle finance, according to company sources. They are
the Red Carpet, the Prime Vishwas, and the Low EMI Scheme, which
are designed for use by urban and rural customers who are salaried,
self-employed, or have no income proof. These solutions have
optional tenure periods depending on the vehicle model chosen by
the customer. The Red Carpet plan is for customers with income
proof and funds up to 90% of the on-road price with a loan tenure
of up to seven years (and pre-payment and part payment facility).
The Prime Vishwas plan is for customers with no income proof and
provides up to 90% of ex-showroom funding with a loan tenure of up
to five years (with an assessment of the person's assets). The Low
EMI Scheme is for self-employed and salaried customers and offers
50% low equated monthly instalments (EMIs) for the first three
months of vehicle purchase and up to 80% of the on-road price of
the vehicle. (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Tarun Thakur)
The Philippine's current account balance returned to a deficit
in the first quarter of 2021, amounting to USD614 million. It
reversed sharply from a surplus of USD4.2 billion posted during the
fourth quarter of 2020 and was also a turnaround from the surplus
of USD225 million recorded during the same quarter a year earlier.
In 2020 as a whole, the current account posted a surplus of USD13
billion, the highest level on record, which was prompted by a sharp
moderation in goods trade shortfall as the plunge in imports
outpaced the drop in exports. (IHS Markit Economist Ling-Wei
Chung)
Goods imports increased by 10% year on year (y/y) in the first
quarter, boosted by higher government spending and stronger
international oil and commodity prices. It reversed a 22.9% y/y
plunge in 2020 as a whole when the pandemic took a heavy toll on
domestic sentiment and spending.
Imports of capital goods jumped 18.1% y/y in the first quarter
of 2021, driven by a 50% y/y surge in telecommunications equipment
and electrical machineries as well as a 19.7% y/y increase in
manufactured goods. Imports of raw material and intermediate goods
jumped 17.7% y/y, and imports of consumer goods expanded by 10.3%
y/y.
IHS Markit provides industry-leading data, software and technology platforms and managed services to tackle some of the most difficult challenges in financial markets. We help our customers better understand complicated markets, reduce risk, operate more efficiently and comply with financial regulation.
