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Daily Global Market Summary - 12 January 2022

12 January 2022 Chris Fenske

All major European and APAC, and most US equity indices closed higher. US government bonds closed lower, while most benchmark European bonds were higher on the day. European iTraxx closed tighter across IG and high yield, while CDX-NA was almost unchanged on the day. Natural gas, oil, copper, gold, and silver closed higher, while the US dollar was sharply lower on the day.

Please note that we are now including a link to the profiles of contributing authors who are available for one-on-one discussions through our Experts by IHS Markit platform.

Americas

  1. Most major US equity indices closed higher except for Russell 2000 -0.8%; S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.2%, and DJIA +0.1%.
  2. 10yr US govt bonds closed +1bp/1.75% yield and 30yr bonds +2bps/2.09% yield.
  3. CDX-NAIG closed -1bp/51bps and CDX-NAHY flat/300bps.
  4. DXY US dollar index closed -0.7%/94.92.
  5. Gold closed +0.5%/$1,827 per troy oz, silver +1.7%/$23.21 per troy oz, and copper +3.3%/$4.58 per pound.
  6. Crude oil closed +1.7%/$82.64 per barrel and natural gas closed +9.0%/$4.33 per mmbtu.
  7. Global securities finance revenues totaled $870m in December, a 4% YoY decline. December saw the lowest global equity revenue for this quarter which can be attributed to the dwindling EMEA and Americas equity revenues. The general uptrend in borrow demand for global ETPs and ADRs remained intact in December. In this note we'll discuss the drivers of December revenue. (IHS Markit Securities Finance's Paul Wilson)
  8. Averaged over the last seven days, and after seasonal adjustment, passenger throughput at US airports was 87.2% of the January 2020 average. This was notably below the recent range and suggests that surging COVID-19 cases are now having an impact on air travel. (IHS Markit Economists Ben Herzon and Lawrence Nelson)
  9. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in December. The core CPI, which excludes the direct effects of moves in food and energy prices, rose 0.6% in December. The CPI for food rose 0.5% but the CPI for energy declined 0.4%, the first decline since April. (IHS Markit Economists Ken Matheny and Juan Turcios)
    • The 12-month change in the overall CPI climbed to 7.0%, the highest in nearly four decades. The 12-month change in the core CPI rose to 5.5%, the highest in more than 30 years.
    • The rise in consumer prices continued to be broad-based in December. Among notable increases were those for apparel (1.7%), airline fares (2.7%), used vehicles (3.5%), and new vehicles (1.0%).
    • The price of new vehicles is up 12.3% since March while used-car prices are up 39.0% since March. Supply chain bottlenecks have hampered vehicle production, resulting in lean inventories and higher prices. Limited availability of new vehicles for sale continues to spill over into strong demand and extraordinary price increases for used vehicles.
    • Rent inflation has accelerated in response to low vacancies and surging home prices. Owners' equivalent rent (OER) and rent of primary residence (RPR) each rose 0.4% in December, similar to recent increases but up sharply from increases during approximately the first year of the pandemic. Twelve-month changes for OER (3.8%) and RPR (3.3%) are up from 2.0% and 1.8%, respectively, as of April.
    • The combination of high inflation and tight labor markets supports our expectation that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy several times over the course of 2022, including a first hike in interest rates at the March policy meeting.
  10. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook on January 11 predicting US natural gas production will reach 96.04 Bcf/d this year. And production will continue to break records in 2023 with 97.6 Bcf/d expected. Currently, the record stands at 93.51 Bcf/d, a record set in 2021. (IHS Markit PointLogic's Annalisa Kraft)
    • EIA explained: "Recent increases in oil and domestic natural gas prices contribute to an overall increase in drilling activity in 2022 that will lead to production growth from 2Q22 onward. Growth in dry natural gas production in 2022 is led by the Haynesville region, where production tends to be sensitive to change in U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas prices, and by the Permian Basin, where production tends to be more sensitive to oil prices."
    • Starting off with a caveat that the pandemic still makes it difficult to estimate global or US consumption, the EIA said uncertainty about winter weather and consumer demand clouded its outlook.
    • That said, EIA is predicting US gas consumption is set to stay flat at 83 Bcf/d in 2022 and 2023 amid the record-breaking production. EIA stated: "We forecast that the electric power sector will consume an average 28.8 Bcf/d in 2022, which is 6% less than in 2021. This decline is a result of rising electricity-generating capacity from renewable energy. We expect that the consumption of natural gas by the electric power sector will decline by 0.5 Bcf/d (2%) in 2023."
    • As to pricing EIA expects Henry Hub to stay near $2.82/MMBtu throughout the first quarter of 2022, averaging $3.79 for the full year and average $3.63.MMBtu in 2023.
    • While EIA may be bearish on natural gas prices, it is bullish on LNG exports from the US predicting a rise from the 2021 average of 9.8 Bcf/d in 2021 to 11.5 Bcf/d and 12.1 Bcf/d in 2023.
    • EIA explained rising European and Asian demand will drive the increase as well as planned LNG terminal completions this year. "The completion of Train 6 at Sabine Pass, the optimization of operations at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi LNG terminals, and the completion of a new LNG export facility—Calcasieu Pass LNG—are all expected in 2022," EIA wrote.
    • As for overall exports, including by pipeline to Mexico, EIA stated: "Gross U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico and Canada in the forecast average 8.9 Bcf/d in 2022, up 0.4 Bcf/d (5.0%) from 2021, and 9.2 Bcf/d in 2023. Net natural gas exports averaged 10.7 Bcf/d in 2021 and we forecast that they will increase to 13.4 Bcf/d in 2022 and 14.3 Bcf/d in 2023."
  11. General Motors (GM) is rolling out a new platform called CarBravo for purchasing used cars in the United States. GM's CarBravo blends digital and dealership used-car sales with promised increased inventory, and in some ways, the platform is taking on online used-car retailers such as CarMax and Carvana. GM says CarBravo uses the automaker's new digital retail platform (DRP) to provide a simple and transparent shopping interface for used vehicles, as well new-car support. CarBravo will connect consumers with a used-car inventory, including used vehicles in the national dealership pool, used vehicles on a given dealer's lot, and used cars owned by GM, largely vehicles obtained through GM Financial and returned lease cars. GM says CarBravo will give customers convenient access to a massive inventory, including vehicles of non-GM brands that may be in a GM dealer's inventory. The automaker says the platform will offer transparency on pricing as well as vehicle history, including vehicle condition reports and details of repairs that were needed to bring the vehicle to its condition at sale, and photographs providing a 360-degree view. In addition, GM says customers will receive peace of mind by vehicles sold via the platform coming with a warranty, roadside assistance, courtesy transportation, and trial subscriptions to OnStar and Sirius/XM, regardless of vehicle make. GM says the CarBravo platform will enable users to purchase a vehicle through online and digital tools or through a dealership, depending on dealers' participation in at-home test drives or home deliveries. (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Stephanie Brinley)
  12. Aptiv has announced the USD4.3-billion acquisition of Wind River, a company that provides intelligent-edge software, including for automotive applications. According to Aptiv's statement, the acquisition is an all-cash deal and Wind River achieved revenues of approximately USD400 million in 2021. In the statement, Kevin Clark, president of Aptiv, said, "The automotive industry is undergoing its largest transformation in over a century, as connected, software-defined vehicles increasingly become critical elements of the broader intelligent ecosystem. Fully capitalizing on this opportunity requires comprehensive solutions that enable software to be developed faster, deployed seamlessly and optimized throughout the vehicle lifecycle by leveraging data-driven insights. These same needs are driving the growth of the intelligent edge across multiple end markets. With Aptiv and Wind River's synergistic technologies and decades of experience delivering safety-critical systems, we will accelerate this journey to a software-defined future of the automotive industry. In addition, we are committed to further strengthening Wind River's competitive position in the multiple industries it serves. We look forward to welcoming the world class Wind River team to the Aptiv family as we continue to develop a safer, greener and more connected world." Aptiv expects the acquisition to enable it to expand into other high-value industries, and plans to combine Wind River Studio with its SVA Platform to extend its position in automotive software solutions. (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Stephanie Brinley)
  13. Automotive industry supplier Magna has announced the acquisition of the engineering team of Optimus Ride, an autonomous vehicle (AV) and mobility solutions provider and self-driving shuttle company, and an engineering center in Boston, Massachusetts (United States). A company statement said that more than 120 employees of Optimus Ride had agreed to join Magna. Automotive News reports a Magna spokesperson as confirming that Magna sent offers of employment to more than 140 "engineering-related employees" of Optimus Ride and more than 120 accepted. The deal also reportedly includes Optimus Ride's AV technology and intellectual property. Optimus Ride had been operating autonomous shuttles in geofenced urban areas of Boston, New York, Virginia, California, and Washington DC, but those commercial activities have ended and Magna has not acquired them, the report states. (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Stephanie Brinley)

Europe/Middle East/Africa

  1. All major European equity markets closed higher; UK/France +0.8%, Italy +0.7%, Germany +0.4%, and Spain +0.2%.
  2. Most 10yr European govt bonds closed higher except for France +3bps; Italy/Spain -5bps, Germany -4bps, and UK -3bps.
  3. iTraxx-Europe closed -1bp/50bps and iTraxx-Xover -3bps/249bps.
  4. Brent crude closed +1.1%/$84.67 per barrel.
  5. Waste management company Veolia has announced the opening of a recycling facility for electric vehicle (EV) battery packs. According to a statement, the new site located in Minworth, near Birmingham (United Kingdom), will "initially discharge and dismantle batteries before the mechanical and chemical separation recycling processes will be completed". The company has added that the facility will have the capacity to process 20% of the UK's end-of-life EV batteries by 2024. Although there is an intention to use EV batteries in second-life applications such as energy storage, in many instances there will be a point where many of these batteries are no longer useable in these roles. Recycling batteries can not only enable the reuse of many of the key materials that go into a lithium-ion cell but can also reduce the carbon footprint and resource impact that a new battery cell can have. Indeed, Veolia's statement notes that an estimated 500,000 gallons of water are required to extract one ton of lithium using this type of mining, and that so-called "urban mining" can cut "greenhouse gas emissions from battery production by up to 50%". The announcement also coincides with a report in the Financial Times (FT) that suggests that battery costs will rise in 2022 following a sharp decline in the supplies of lithium and other raw materials as output has failed to keep up with demands of the wider market. (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Ian Fletcher)
  6. In the first week of 2022 ending 7 January, some fruit and vegetables noted a steep wholesale price increase from a year ago in the UK, according to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra, 10 January). Bramley's Seedling apples' average wholesale prices climbed 65% y/y and 12% w/w to £1.90 per kilo ($2.58/kg). The 2021 highest price point was £1.69 in week 50. (IHS Markit Food and Agricultural Commodities' Hope Lee)
    • Both Braeburn and Gala apples showed little y/y change. Braeburn increased by 1% y/y and 15% w/w to £0.97/kg while Gala went down 1% y/y and +1% w/w to £0.95/kg. Egremont Russet's wholesale price fell by 44% y/y to £0.96/kg, the biggest fall among main fruits tracked in week one. In January-October 2021, the UK's apple import value was $372 million, about 1% down y/y.
    • Conference pear noted a hike of 30% y/y and 69% w/w to £1.30/kg. In 2021, the highest point was £1.17/kg in week 14. In January-October, the UK's fresh pear import value was $96 million, 18% y/y down.
    • Red cabbages' wholesale price rose by 66% y/y and 2% w/w to £0.58/kg while savoy went up by 4% y/y and decreased 13% w/w to £0.49/kg.
    • Beetroot (17% y/y), Pak choi (21% y/y) and curly kale (22% y/y) increased rapidly.
    • Both brown and red onions saw increases of 15% y/y and 17% y/y to £0.46/kg and £0.62/kg, respectively.
    • Cauliflower noted the biggest price fall of 34% y/y to £0.68/heard among main vegetables. In January-October, the UK's cauliflower import value was $159 million, 9% down y/y.
    • Over the three months to December 2021, the UK's total food sales increased 0.4% while non-food retail sales rose 4.8%, according to the BRC-KPMG retail sales monitor. UK businesses are warned to be facing significant head winds in 2022 as consumer spending is expected to be held back by rising inflation, increasing energy bills.
  7. Mercedes-Benz will build the powertrains for the new MMA and MB.EA architectures completely in-house, according to the firm's board member for development Markus Schäfer, who was interviewed by Automotive News Europe. This will mean a move to more vertical integration in the supply chain and manufacturing process and less reliance on suppliers. Schäfer said, "To do this, we are significantly increasing the depth of added value and are also switching from third-party sourcing to in-house production. Until now, the electric powertrains have come from external partners." He added, "We want to control the overall system of electric motor, battery and power electronics as much as possible, similar to what is the case with the combustion engine." OEMs have generally had battery electric vehicle (BEV) powertrains supplied in full by suppliers, although this appears to be changing. There appears to be a general trend developing in the wake of the semiconductor supply crisis for OEMs to take more and more manufacturing of critical components in-house. The company introduced its next-generation BEV drivetrain technology and gave an insight into it when it debuted the EQXX concept at the CES 2022 last week. The EQXX consumes only 10 kilowatt hours per 100 kilometers (km), which is one-third more efficient than current production, giving the EQXX a range of around 1,000 km, a claim that was provisionally confirmed when the car's initial specifications were run through IHS Markit's vehicle performance and compliance product (VPac). (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Tim Urquhart)
  8. Ride-hailing firm Bolt has raised EUR628 million (USD709 million) in a new round of funding co-led by Sequoia Capital and Fidelity Management and Research Company, reports TechCrunch. The investment, which was also backed by Whale Rock, Owl Rock, D1, G Squared, Tekne, Ghisallo, and other unnamed backers, values Bolt at USD8.4 billion. The company plans to use the infused capital to expand into new geographies, attract more customers and partners to its 'super app', and introduce newer business lines. The company also plans to expand the construction of 'dark stores', which only fulfil online orders, in more cities. (IHS Markit Automotive Mobility's Surabhi Rajpal)
  9. Favorable base effects and real exchange support allowed Belarus to hold on to its current-account surplus in the third quarter of 2021, even if it narrowed by 19% from the previous quarter. The positive balance is unsustainable, however, and IHS Markit assumes that depreciation is needed to keep the shortfall manageable, given Belarus's very limited external financing options, even if the second-quarter injection of special drawing rights (SDR) allocations provided reserves with some needed support. (IHS Markit Economist Venla Sipilä)
    • According to preliminary figures from the National Bank of Belarus (NBB), the current account in the third quarter of 2021 held on to a surplus, with foreign currency inflows exceeding outflows by USD905 million. This total represents a widening of the surplus of 42% year on year (y/y), but a narrowing of one-fifth compared with the second quarter.
    • The cumulative January-September 2021 surplus of USD1.1 billion marks a strengthening compared with a deficit of USD416 billion in the same period of 2020.
    • The goods trade deficit, the largest negative component of the Belarusian current account, halved y/y in January-September, while it narrowed by a more moderate rate of 13% y/y in the third quarter. The other typically negative current-account sub-section, the primary income balance, retuned to a deficit following a modest surplus in the second quarter, as income inflows decreased.
    • Meanwhile, the services account surplus widened by around 22% y/y in the third quarter. However, in cumulative terms the strengthening was more modest, with service imports rising somewhat faster than exports y/y in January-September.
    • Modest net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the third quarter remained negative. However, with net FDI outflows also starting to signal disinvestment, the total net position strengthened by 75% from the previous quarter, albeit remaining negative.
    • Belarusian total gross external debt during the third quarter remained virtually stable, while it increased by 0.6% from the beginning of the year. However, Belarus's portion of the overall IMF SDR allocation lifted the share of central bank debt of total external debt to 3.7% from 2.0% at the end of 2020. Meanwhile, the shares of banking sector and corporate external obligations decreased.
  10. Net capital outflows from Turkey continued during November 2021, fueled by hugely negative real interest rates. The current account slipped back into deficit in November, although it remained better than year-earlier levels. In 2022, it will be difficult for Turkey to recapture net capital inflows. Although the current-account deficit may re-widen, any such worsening will be modest. (IHS Markit Economist Andrew Birch)
    • Although they moderated somewhat from October, net capital outflows from Turkey remained significant in November 2021. According to data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası: TCMB), the country lost USD1.446 billion in net foreign portfolio investment in November. Hugely negative real interest rates and international investor doubts regarding Turkish monetary policy fueled the outflows.
    • Meanwhile, following three consecutive months of surplus, the current account fell back into deficit in November. The USD2.681-billion gap, however, remained lower than it had been a year earlier. Seasonal merchandise trade factors contributed heavily to the resumed deficit in November.
    • However, USD1.2 billion in fresh service imports in November also contributed to the overall deterioration in the current-account deficit. During the month, travel and transport imports - reflective of substantial new merchandise imports - drove up overall service imports. Additionally, there was a sharp rise in insurance and pension, financial services, and government service imports in November compared with earlier in the year.
  11. Egypt's headline urban consumer price inflation was slightly up in December at 5.9% from 5.6% in November, ending a two-month downward trend, according to data published by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS). (IHS Markit Economist Yasmine Ghozzi)
    • On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell for the first time in 11 months, declining 0.1% due to a 1% decrease in food prices. The annual rate remains at the lower end of the central bank's 7% (±2%) target range by Q4 2022.
    • A slower than anticipated rise in food and beverage costs led to a subdued rise in the annual headline figure. Food and beverage costs (which constitute the largest component of the basket of goods used to measure prices) increased 8.4% on an annual basis but fell 1% from November, as highlighted by CAPMAS. Vegetables were the only item included in inflation figures to register a year-on-year (y/y) drop in price, falling 9.6% on an annual basis and 7.1% monthly.
    • However, other products' prices increased, including cereals and bread by 0.9%, fruit by 0.9%, and oils and fats by 0.6%. Housing and utility prices rose by 4.2% y/y, owing to an 11.6% increase in gas, electricity, and other fuel prices, while clothing and footwear rose to 2.7% from 1.2% the month prior. Healthcare costs rose 2.7% annually, transport increased 4.8%, and recreation and culture rose by 14.8%.

Asia-Pacific

  1. All major APAC equity indices closed higher; Hong Kong +2.8%, Japan +1.9%, South Korea +1.5%, India +0.9%, Mainland China +0.8%, and Australia +0.7%.
  2. China Evergrande 8.75% 6/2025 closed at a price of 12.00 today, which is only slightly higher than the all-time low price of 11.75 set on Monday.
  3. China's auto market will continue to play a central role in accelerating the global auto industry's transition to electrification over the next few years, IHS Markit's latest forecasts show. Latest data from China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicate that retail sales of passenger new energy vehicles (NEVs), including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), reached 475,000 units in China in December 2021, taking the country's full-year passenger NEV sales to a record of 2.99 million units. NEV production in the country is expected to reach more than 4 million units this year and increase to 5.5 million units in 2023, according to IHS Markit's latest forecasts. Of this total, BEV production is expected to increase 23% to around 3.2 million units in 2022, before growing further to 4.43 million units in 2023. The projections take into account factors such as an increase in NEV models, cheaper battery prices, the wider availability of public EV charging stations and automakers' continual efforts to speed up new car deliveries. The penetration rate of NEVs reached 22.6% in December 2021 in the Chinese passenger vehicle market, according to CPCA data. Chinese OEMs have outperformed their joint venture (JV) counterparts to lead sales growth in the NEV segment. This is in part thanks to Chinese OEMs' early involvement in the NEV sector and their ability to respond quickly to consumer demand changes. (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Abby Chun Tu)
  4. Japan's current-account surplus fell by 48.2% year on year (y/y) to JPY835.0 billion (USD7.8 billion) in November on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, but rose by 33.5% month on month (m/m) to JPY1.4 trillion on a seasonally adjusted basis. The y/y decline was due largely to a JPY1.4-billion drop in the trade of goods balance to a deficit of JPY431.3 billion on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. (IHS Markit Economist Harumi Taguchi)
    • A faster increase in import prices associated with the weak yen accelerated import growth to 44.9% y/y, outpacing exports, which were up 23.2% y/y. However, the seasonally adjusted trade of goods balance turned positive for the first time in four months, reflecting easing supply chain disruption. The sustained current-account surplus was thanks to solid primary income, which was up 14.3% y/y to JPY1.8 trillion on a non-seasonally adjusted basis or up 1.9% m/m to JPY1.9 trillion on a seasonally adjusted basis. The faster rise largely reflected increased income from portfolio investment.
    • The November results were largely in line with IHS Markit's expectations. The improved seasonally adjusted balance signaled a positive contribution of net exports to quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2021 (which will be released on 15 February 2022).
  5. Hyundai has started developing next-generation power semiconductors for vehicles, reports the Business Korea Daily News. Along with power semiconductor company Power Cube, the automaker will develop semiconductors using new materials such as silicon carbide (SiC), gallium nitride (GaN), and gallium oxide (Ga203). Next-generation semiconductors outperform current silicon-based semiconductors in terms of performance. Hyundai is also expected to place new orders with South Korean foundries. It will reportedly outsource production of gallium oxide power management integrated circuits and microcontroller units to domestic foundry companies. Samsung Electronics is also on the horizon for collaboration. Hyundai will use or is considering using Samsung Electronics's products such as camera image sensors, vehicle power management integrated circuits, and infotainment application processors in Genesis premium-brand models. (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Jamal Amir)
  6. VinFast has announced that its first three smart electric car models, the VF e34, VF 8, and VF 9, will deploy HERE Navigation, according to a company press release. The automaker will also integrate HERE's software development kit (SDK) into its dedicated smartphone mobile application. "In the era of connected vehicle, it's important for us to remain competitive by being agile and flexible with our offerings. The services put forth by HERE are outstanding and they offer one of the most customizable, reliable, and accurate navigation systems for electric vehicles [EVs]. Not only are these services cost-effective and highly scalable, they provide our drivers with an upgraded overall navigation and driving experience. Thanks to the collaboration with HERE, we are able to carry out our mission to offer one of the best intelligent mobility experiences to our customers," said VinFast chief technology officer Hong Sang Bae. (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Jamal Amir)
  7. The ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) expects Southeast Asian nations to boost renewable energy deployment following their climate pledges in recent quarters. Among the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), nine are aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050 or later to help counter climate change. The Philippines is the sole exception. (IHS Markit Net-Zero Business Daily's Max Lin)
    • ASEAN is targeting a 23% share of renewables in total primary energy supply and a 35% share in installed power capacity by 2025. The intergovernmental organization also wants to see a 32% energy intensity reduction from 2005 levels.
    • The latest ACE figures show ASEAN had a 13.9% renewable share of primary energy and a 28.7% share of power capacity in 2019. But the region had already achieved a 21.8% cut in energy intensity by that point.
    • Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are expected to see some of the largest renewable capacity expansions in Southeast Asia in 2022, according to ACE.
    • In Indonesia, two floating solar plants-one 40-MW power station at a Krakatau Steel facility, and one 145-MW station in Cirata, West Java-are due to come online this year.
    • Thailand has plans to have 1.77 GW of capacity installed this year, the majority of which will be renewable, ACE said.
    • Having granted approval for 11.8 GW of wind power by the end of 2021, Vietnam is expected to see 488 MW installed in 2022.

Posted 12 January 2022 by Chris Fenske, Head of Fixed Income Research, Americas

IHS Markit provides industry-leading data, software and technology platforms and managed services to tackle some of the most difficult challenges in financial markets. We help our customers better understand complicated markets, reduce risk, operate more efficiently and comply with financial regulation.


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