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European equity markets closed higher across the region and
US/APAC markets were mixed. US government bonds and the dollar
closed flat, while benchmark European bonds were higher. CDX closed
tighter, but near the widest levels of the day. Gold/oil closed
lower and silver/copper were higher on the day.
Americas
The US equity market closed mixed; S&P 500 +0.9%,
DJIA/Nasdaq +0.7%, and Russell 2000 -0.4%.
10yr US govt bonds closed flat/0.93% yield and 30yr bonds
flat/1.66% yield.
CDX-NAIG closed -2bps/52bps and CDX-NAHY -3bps/295bps.
DXY US dollar index closed flat/90.34.
Gold closed -0.1%/$1,880 per ounce, silver +2.4%/$26.54 per
ounce, and copper +0.3%/$3.57 per pound.
Crude oil closed -1.3%/$47.62 per barrel.
The US House of Representatives is set to vote Monday to
replace the $600 stimulus payments in the newly enacted pandemic
relief law with the $2,000 President Donald Trump demanded -- a
Democratic-led effort that is politically fraught for congressional
Republicans and unlikely to become law. The bill would need
two-thirds support to clear the House under the procedure being
used for the vote, and it remains unclear if enough Republicans
will shelve their opposition to higher payments -- partly driven by
deficit concerns -- to support Trump's request. (Bloomberg)
Averaged over the last seven days, the count of seated diners
on the OpenTable platform, relative to year-earlier levels, was
down about 62%. This was 5 percentage points better than the prior
week's reading, but volatility around the Christmas holiday may
have influenced the latest weekly data so it is too soon to tell if
the downward trend since mid-October has stalled or begun to
reverse. Meanwhile, activity at small businesses (revenue and the
number of small businesses in operation) turned up in the first few
days of December before reversing those gains by 9 December,
according to the Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker. This
followed diminishing activity over most of November and left
small-business activity in line with a flat trend, down materially
from January. (IHS Markit Economists Ben Herzon and Joel
Prakken)
Merck & Co. (US) announced that it has entered into an
agreement with the US government under which it will receive
support for the development, production, and early distribution of
investigational biological therapeutic CD24Fc, to be renamed
MK-7110, upon its receiving approval of emergency use authorization
(EUA) from the United States FDA. The molecule, a potentially
first-in-class recombinant fusion protein targeting the innate
immune system, was brought into Merck's pipeline under its recent
acquisition of Oncoimmune (US), and it is involved in late-stage
trials for the treatment of severe and critical COVID-19.. The
agreement foresees Merck receiving up to USD356 million for
producing and supplying 60,000 - 100,000 doses of MK-7110 to the US
government until 30 June 2021, as part of the goals of Operation
Warp Speed. MK-7110 is intended to suppress the body's inflammatory
response to SARS-CoV-2, which is a major cause of severe illness in
patients with COVID-19. Although other immunomodulatory drugs have
been tried in the treatment of COVID-19, notably Roche
(Switzerland)'s Roactemra (tocilizumab), results have been
unconvincing. However, it appears that Merck has been sufficiently
convinced of the potential of the molecule, and it will now be able
to pursue its development with the financial support of the US
government. (IHS Markit Life Sciences' Brendan Melck)
Nikola and waste company Republic Services had agreed to
collaborate on developing a battery-electric refuse truck, but have
announced the end of the collaboration. The end of the
collaboration also means the cancellation of Republic Services'
order for 2,500 units. Hydrogen fuel-cell and battery electric
vehicles are being explored by several automakers in the MHCV
space, as well as battery electrics. The propulsion systems have
advantages in MHCV use, and there are increasing regulatory
pressures for a shift to zero-emission vehicles only, even in the
MHCV category. Nikola is looking to develop its presence in a space
that has the potential for demand growth in the coming decades, but
it must first survive a difficult initial development period. (IHS
Markit AutoIntelligence's Stephanie Brinley)
Robotics company Nuro has received a permit to launch a
commercial autonomous delivery service in California (US). This is
the first ever permit issued from the state's Department of Motor
Vehicles (DMV), and it will allow Nuro to charge customers for its
driverless delivery service, reports TechCrunch. Nuro will deploy
its fleet of light-duty driverless vehicles in Santa Clara and San
Mateo counties. The company will initially use autonomous Toyota
Priuses to launch the service in early 2021, and later add its own
low-speed R2 vehicles, which has no pedals or steering wheel. In a
separate statement, Nuro has acquired autonomous truck startup Ike
for an undisclosed amount. The companies have already started
working on integration of teams and technology and this will
support Nuro to "move faster on an ambitious mission to make
people's lives better with automated vehicles". It is the second
big milestone for Nuro this year. In February, Nuro was granted
approval by US regulator the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (NHTSA) to deploy up to 5,000 autonomous vehicles
(AVs) with no traditional controls in Houston, Texas. The company
received USD500 million funding in November, bringing its total
funding so far to USD1.5 billion. (IHS Markit Automotive Mobility's
Surabhi Rajpal)
Lloyd's Register and Northeast Technical Service Co. (NETSCo)
have signed an agreement to design and develop a Jones Act
compliant wind turbine installation vessel (WTIV). Under the joint
development project agreement, NETSCo will handle concept design of
the vessel, while Lloyd's Register will review and evaluate the
design. The design will focus on "meeting the requirement of
current developments along the U.S. East coast and Great Lakes such
as crane capacity, deck space and water depth." (IHS Markit
Upstream Costs and Technology's Genevieve Wheeler Melvin)
In October, Mexico's monthly index of economic activity (MIEA)
grew by 1.6% compared with September, driven by growth in industry,
particularly manufacturing. An increase in the number of COVID-19
cases is prompting restrictive measures that will slow down growth.
(IHS Markit Economist Rafael Amiel)
The National Statistics Office of Mexico (INEGI) reported that
the MIEA grew by 1.6% month on month (m/m) in October compared with
September; this is based on seasonally adjusted data.
Growth was driven by industry (up 2.0% m/m), which in turn was
propelled by an acceleration in manufacturing and construction. In
the first case, the automotive industry played a key role as
exports of cars to the United States grew substantially.
Construction data are very volatile and do not suggest a trend;
this follows a big decline in September.
Growth in the service sector - the most affected by the
pandemic - is still relatively low and will not improve
significantly until COVID-19-virus-related restrictions are
lifted.
The MIEA growth rate for September was revised up from 1.0% m/m
to 1.2% m/m.
The arrival of the vaccine and approval of a new fiscal
stimulus package has prompted the IHS Markit US macro team to
revise its forecast for GDP growth. A similar revision will follow
for Mexico in the January 2021 forecast round. We anticipate that
Mexico's GDP will grow by 3.7% in 2021, but this estimate may
increase by 4-5 tenths of a percentage point once we incorporate
the new figures for the US economy.
Mexico is co-operating with COVID-19-virus vaccine developers
and should be among the first countries to receive a vaccine. This
means that by the end of the third quarter of 2021 most of the
population will have been vaccinated and economic activity will
reflect Mexico's new normality.
COVID-19 cases are increasing again in Mexico, which has a
traffic light system: Mexico City (Federal District), Baja
California, and the state of Mexico are on a "red light", which
means that non-essential businesses must close. These three states
account for almost 30% of national GDP.
Europe/Middle East/Africa
European equity markets closed higher across the region;
Germany +1.5%, France +1.2%, Italy +0.7%, and Spain +0.5%.
10yr European govt bonds closed higher; Italy -5bps, France
-2bps, and Germany/Spain -1bp.
Brent crude closed -0.9%/$50.90 per barrel.
EU ambassadors have approved the post-Brexit trade agreement
that was announced on Christmas Eve, according to a spokesman from
the German government. However, agri-food industry warns of future
disruption. (IHS Markit Food and Agricultural Policy's Steve
Gillman)
Over 60% of British agri-food exports go to the bloc, according
to the UK farmers union, while FoodDrinkEurope estimates that 73%
of the UK's imports of agri-food products came from the EU-27.
FoodDrinkEurope said it is essential for authorities on both
sides to move at "lightning speed" to ensure that border controls
can operate efficiently from 1 January.
Mella Frewen, the trade group's director general, said:
"Failure to move quickly will lead to more border chaos and supply
chain disruption that will not only put thousands of jobs at risk,
but also impact the safe supply of affordable agri-food products to
consumers."
FoodDrinkEurope want government authorities to ensure that
businesses understand the new trade requirements and called on the
Commission to establish direct communications with agri-food chain
operators to identify and solve border any issues that arise over
the coming weeks and months.
Frewen also called for "swift deployment" of the EU's €5
billion Brexit Adjustment Reserve, which hopes to help the sector
deal with the costs of the future trading situation, and said EU
policymakers still need to scrutinize the EU-UK trade agreement to
understand its full implications.
The European Parliament must still ratify the post-Brexit trade
deal, probably by late February, but EU member states have the
option to provisionally apply the agreement before their
approval.
GE Renewable Energy has scored a first with its 14 MW Haliade-X
offshore wind turbine. The company has been selected by Dogger Bank
Wind Farm as the preferred turbine supplier for its Dogger Bank C
project. Finalization of the supply agreement and confirmation of
the order will take place in the first quarter of 2021, and subject
to the project reaching final close, expected to be in late 2021.
The turbines are scheduled to be installed in 2025, with completion
sometime in 2026. (IHS Markit Upstream Costs and Technology's
Melvin Leong)
The CEO of the Volkswagen (VW) Group, Herbert Diess, has said
that VW is taking the prospect of Apple entering the automotive
space very seriously, according to a Bloomberg report. Apple was
reported earlier this week to be targeting a 2024 entry into the
automotive market with its 'Project Titan' vehicle project that
would employ a brand new battery chemistry. Diess is all too aware
that Apple's formidable technology capability and massive cash
reserves will make it a potentially formidable competitor. In a
Linked-In post Diess said, "We look forward to new competitors who
will certainly accelerate the change in our industry and bring in
new skills,". He added, "The unbelievable valuation and the
practically unlimited access to resources instill a lot of respect
in us." (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Tim Urquhart)
Iceland's consumer price index rose by 3.6% year on year (y/y)
in December, according to figures released by Statistics Iceland.
Prices had increased by 3.5% y/y in November. (IHS Markit Economist
Diego Iscaro)
Inflation has averaged 2.8% in 2020, following readings of 3.0%
in 2019 and 2.8% in 2018. While inflation had ranged between 1.7%
and 2.6% during the first half of the year, a weakening of the
krona as a result of lower tourism revenues has led to an
acceleration of the inflation rate from July.
The prices of household equipment and food continued to be the
main drivers of the headline inflation rate in December. On the
other hand, communication costs fell sharply following a smaller
contraction in November.
Inflation was slightly above our estimates for December,
although we still expect a gradual deceleration in early 2021.
The krona has firmed up as a result of large foreign exchange
interventions by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI), appreciating by
just below 6% since reaching a seven-year low (on a trade basis) in
October. In our December interim forecast, we expect the krona to
remain relatively stable at the start of 2021, and then gradually
strengthens as exports revenues benefit from improving demand from
vaccine rollouts in key trade partners.
The director general of KamAZ, Sergey Kogogin, has said that
the company plans to produce an electric light commercial vehicle
(LCV) based on its Kama-1 electric crossover prototype. KamAZ has
developed the Kama-1 in conjunction with the Peter the Great St
Petersburg Polytechnic University, and the concept was presented in
Moscow two weeks ago. The Kama-1 is KamAZ's first foray into
passenger car design, and features a Level 3 intelligent driver
assistance system (ADAS). It has a three-door, four-seater compact
crossover body style. The vehicle is equipped with a 33 kW/h
lithium-ion battery and an 80 kW electric engine, which enable a
maximum velocity of 150 km/h and a journey range of 250 km in one
charge. The vehicle has been designed initially for urban
car-sharing schemes in major cities such as Moscow and St
Petersburg, although it may find more traction commercially as a
local urban delivery van. However, the electric vehicle market and
associated infrastructure in Russia is still very much in its
infancy. (IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Tim Urquhart)
Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz have agreed to cooperate
on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion
of Uzbekneftegaz's Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the
proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. Gazprom Neft
is the oil subsidiary of Gazprom. (IHS Markit Chemical Advisory)
"Sibur and Gazprom Neft will explore the possibilities of
participating in the implementation of the project to expand the
production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex," says
Sibur, Russia's largest producer of petrochemicals. The companies
will also "consider the possibility of joint implementation of an
investment project for the construction of a gas chemical complex
based on natural gas resources produced in Uzbekistan with a
capacity of up to 3 billion cubic meters," Sibur says. The location
for the new complex and potential investment amounts have not been
given.
The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes "the
creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins [MTO]
technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the
Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex," says Uzbekistan's energy ministry in
an official statement. The cooperation agreements were signed by
the two Russian companies and Uzbekneftegaz last week during an
official visit to Moscow by a delegation from Uzbekistan's energy
ministry.
The Shurtan complex, operated by state-owned Uzbekneftegaz,
currently produces ethylene and more than 134,000 metric tons/year
of polyethylene (PE), as well as 116,000 metric tons/year of
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), 103,000 metric tons/year of gas
condensate, and 4.1 billion cu meters/year of raw gas, according to
the latest information on the SGCC website.
In October, Lummus Technology was awarded a contract by Enter
Engineering (Tashkent, Uzbekistan) to design and supply four
steam-cracking furnaces to more than double ethylene production at
the facility in the Kashkadarya Region of southwestern
Uzbekistan.
Local press reports in Uzbekistan have previously outlined
proposed plans by Uzbekneftegaz to build a new gas chemicals
cluster at a provisional cost of $4.25 billion using MTO
technology, with up to 10 polymer plants producing up to 250,000
metric tons/year of polypropylene, 100,000 metric tons/year of
synthetic rubber, 100,000 metric tons/year of polyethylene
terephthalate and ethylene-vinyl acetate, and up to 150,000 metric
tons/year of ethylene glycol and PE.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) released its financial
stability report on 21 December. According to the regulator,
Ukraine's banking sector demonstrated resilience to the
COVID-19-virus pandemic, remaining well-capitalized and able to
absorb losses and increase lending in support of the economic
recovery. (IHS Markit Banking Risk's Greta Butaviciute)
Credit growth has gradually recovered from contraction in the
second quarter, with the fastest lending pace in the SME sector
since September and rising mortgage lending since July. The NBU
called the latter "an unprecedented phenomenon for Ukraine, given
the depth of the crisis and remarkable uncertainty" and attributed
lower cost of loans as the key driver. However, the report also
warned of rising profitability risks due to narrowing margins as
lending rates are likely to fall further in the medium term.
The report stated that the NBU will introduce new bank capital
requirements over the next two years to harmonize national
regulation with Basel Committee recommendations.
Despite recovery in lending, Ukraine's banking sector
profitability remains under pressure, with profits from January to
October coming in 23% lower than in the same period last year.
While this is partially due to increased provisioning, volatile
lending and deposit base leave Ukrainian banks' cost of funding
high, thus hindering profitability.
Asset quality is extremely weak, putting further pressure on
profitability. While the sector's gross non-performing loan (NPL)
ratio improved by 2.9 percentage points since June, it still stood
at 45.6% in the third quarter, an extremely high level reflecting
the severe credit risk that banks are facing.
The banking sector's Tier 1 ratio and capital adequacy ratio
stood at 16.1% and 21.9%, respectively, in September. However, the
sector's capital position is unlikely to strengthen further in the
short term, especially because the central bank delayed introducing
capital conservation and systemic risk buffers to contain the
economic impact of the COVID-19-virus outbreak.
IHS Markit assesses that the planned introduction of new bank
capital requirements in the next few years is risk positive for
Ukraine's banking sector as it will strengthen the regulatory
framework further by bringing it closer to best international
practices.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to an
extension of Mauritania's Extended Credit Facility (ECF)
arrangement to 5 March 2021. The ECF was due to expire on 5
December and Mauritania requested a three-month extension amid
worsened balance-of-payments issues. (IHS Markit Economist Alisa
Strobel)
The IMF's three-year ECF, providing access to 90% (SDR115.92
million) of quota, was approved on 6 December 2017 and was set to
expire on 5 December 2020. In addition, access to an additional
15.7% of quota (SDR20.24 million) was approved on 2 September 2020.
On 23 April, the executive board of the IMF also approved USD130
million in financial assistance to Mauritania under the Rapid
Credit Facility (RCF), to address the country's deteriorating
balance-of-payments issues resulting from the COVID-19
pandemic.
The extension has been granted to allow additional time to
complete the final IMF ECF review; due to the COVID-19 outbreak,
the completion of the review was delayed. The official IMF
statement highlighted that the additional time was needed to assess
the latest economic developments and assess the government's new
Priority Programme and 2021 budget, which is expected to be
consistent with ECF-supported program objectives.
We anticipate the sixth review will show Mauritania's program
performance to be in line with IMF requirements, despite the
challenges imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic on broader
macroeconomic development. The fifth review mission under the ECF,
which was concluded in early March 2020, found that Mauritania's
performance under the program was broadly on track. IMF preliminary
data suggest that the program's quantitative performance criteria
for end-June 2020 were met, including the floors on net
international reserves and the primary budget balance, as well as
ceilings on non-concessional borrowing. Additionally, indicative
targets for end-September, for which preliminary data are
available, seem to have been met and structural benchmarks are
being implemented.
Asia-Pacific
Most APAC equity markets closed higher except for Hong Kong
-0.3%; India +0.8%, Japan +0.7%, South Korea +0.1%, and Mainland
China flat.
At the 16-18 December Central Economic Conference (CEWC)
chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping, policymakers vowed to
maintain stable economic policy and enhance demand-side management
in 2021 to consolidate economic recovery and promote quality
growth. (IHS Markit Economist Yating Xu)
The current economic recovery remains fragile with various
uncertainties. The CEWC confirmed that mainland China will be the
only major economy in the world to realize economic expansion in
2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic. However, policymakers at the
meeting also stressed that the uncertainties of the COVID-19
situation overseas and global relationships, the fragile and uneven
economic recovery, and various derivative risks caused by the
pandemic could still weigh on the economy going forward. For
example, the recovery in some contact services remains slow,
structural unemployment is still prominent, and companies will be
facing great debt repayment pressures in 2021.
Macroeconomic policy is to be stable in 2021 to maintain the
pace of economic recovery and pandemic control. Given the
abovementioned uncertainties, macro polices will be focused on
maintaining continuity, stability, and sustainability to provide
necessary support for the economic recovery. Policies should be
"more precise and effective, with no sharp turns and a good grasp
of the timeliness and effectiveness". The general principle of
"proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy" is to remain
unchanged.
Fiscal policy will be more effective and sustainable with
strict supervision on hidden debt. Spending allocation will be
tilted toward improving people's livelihood and furthering
structural reforms, especially those promoting technological
innovation, accelerating economic restructuring, and adjusting
income distribution. The issue of local governments' hidden debt
was brought up again at the conference; to help address this issue,
according to policymakers at the meeting, governments at all levels
must "insist on living a tight life".
Monetary policy will be more precise and reasonable. As stated
in the central bank's third-quarter 2020 Monetary Policy
Implementation Report, the growth rate of money supply and total
social financing (TSF) should basically match nominal GDP growth to
keep the macro leverage ratio stable. This is in contrast with the
statement made during the early stages of the pandemic that "money
supply and TSF growth should be significantly faster than the
previous year". Policymakers at the conference also highlighted the
importance of balancing "the relationship between economic recovery
and risk prevention."
Technology innovation tops the list of the eight major economic
tasks for 2021. The CEWC outlined eight major tasks for 2021 (see
table below), including more government engagement in technology
development, income distribution adjustment, more housing market
control in big cities, and risk management for internet companies
and internet finance.
The 16-18 December CEWC conveyed expectations of stable
economic policy for 2021, easing worries of a rapid retraction of
stimulus measures over the short term. Although the general fiscal
deficit rate in 2021 could be lower compared with 2020, it may
still stay at a relatively high level taking into account the
impact of the epidemic uncertainty. However, considering of the
local governments' debt issues, infrastructure investment is still
likely to face pressure in 2021.
Chinese electric vehicle (EV) startup NIO is to unveil a new
electric sedan at its 2021 NIO Day event. The new model is expected
to feature a 150-kWh battery pack and NIO's NT2.0 NIO Pilot system.
NIO has also said it will showcase its second-generation
battery-swapping technologies that deliver improved efficiency at
its battery-swapping stations. The 2021 NIO Day event will take
place on 9 January 2021 in Chengdu, China. NIO says it has several
exciting developments to be announced during the NIO Day event, the
company's annual event focusing on its new technologies and
products. The new sedan is expected to deliver a long driving range
using a 150-kWh battery pack. None of its rivals in the EV space
currently offers a production model featuring a 150-kWh battery.
The new battery is likely to have a higher density compared with
the 70-kWh and 100-kWh battery packs currently used in NIO's ES6
and ES8. However, given the battery's high cost, NIO is likely to
give consumers the option of a smaller battery with the new sedan.
(IHS Markit AutoIntelligence's Abby Chun Tu)
SsangYong has decided to temporarily suspend production
operations at its Pyeongtaek plant on 24 and 28 December, mainly
because its suppliers refused to deliver parts, reports Korea
JoongAng Daily. "With the disruption of auto parts delivery,
production will be suspended," the automaker said in a regulatory
filing. SsangYong is negotiating with its suppliers and will resume
operations on 29 December, but the schedule can change depending on
the situation. Hyundai Mobis, LG Hausys, and S&T Dynamics are
among the multiple parts suppliers that have suspended deliveries
to SsangYong. The missing parts include headlights and bumpers. The
latest development comes after SsangYong filed for court
receivership as it struggles with increasing debts amid the
COVID-19 virus pandemic. The automaker asked the creditors to roll
over the loans but failed to obtain approval from the lenders. This
is the second time that SsangYong has placed itself under court
receivership after undergoing the same process a decade ago.
China-based SAIC Motor Corporation acquired a 51% stake in
SsangYong in 2004 but in 2009 relinquished its control of the
company in the wake of the economic downturn. (IHS Markit
AutoIntelligence's Jamal Amir)
Domestic milk production in South Korea is to decrease in 2021,
as the government increases efforts to regulate stocks. Import
demand is to be sustained by rapidly growing cheese consumption.
(IHS Markit Food and Agricultural Commodities' Jana Sutenko)
Domestic milk production in South Korea is forecast to decrease
70,000 tons in 2021 to 2.03 million tons, according to the USDA's
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). This is after the 2020 forecast
milk production was raised 70,000 tons to 2.1 million tons. The
industry increased production because it expected a higher
negotiated milk price in August 2020 from the government, but the
expectation never materialized.
The government has been working to address oversupply of raw
milk in the market since 2014, when production reached 2.21 million
tons which resulted in 261,862 tons of inventories. Production has
been declining ever since, with milk inventories falling below
100,000 tons in 2018 for the first time in five years.
Milk powder inventories in January 2020 were estimated at
101,167 tons, down more than half from January 2015, but stocks are
said to have grown quickly again throughout 2020 as domestic milk
production increased and it was not absorbed due to COVID19 related
school and foodservice closures. Although dairy processing
companies supplied more products through online and offline
channels in the belief that consumption at home would increase
during the pandemic, their net profits suffered due to aggressive
marketing campaigns aimed at promoting consumption.
Cheese consumption is forecast to increase 8.1% percent in 2021
to 200,000 tons. Consumer tastes are becoming more westernized and
more products using cheese are being introduced to the market. As a
result, cheese consumption is expected to continue to increase both
for direct consumption and in the food processing industry.
Estimated 2020 cheese consumption is raised 5,000 tons to
185,000 tons based on rising consumption trends.
According to the latest customs data, Korean dairy imports in
January-November 2020 reached 290,600 tons in volume and exceeded
USD1.0 billion in value. Particular high increases were seen in
imports of cheese, which were up 13% to 137,600 tons.
Posted 29 December 2020 by Chris Fenske, Head of Fixed Income Research, Americas, IHS Markit
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