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Total volumes of crude oil liftings from Russia have been
marginally down in July and August, as the decline reached 1.2%
since June, however a new trend has developed for Russian exports.
Baltic Sea seaborne exports have been slowing down quickly, with
year-on-year remaining positive, but with losses to report
month-on-month since June. Levels in August stand at 1,750,000 b/d,
down around 435,000 b/d from the highest achieved earlier this year
(May/June). This is a drop of 20% so far, as shown in the chart
below from IHS Markit Commodities at
Sea.
Performance has been much better in the Black Sea, with volumes
remaining above 2,000,000 b/d during the last three months. The
average liftings since early June currently stand at 2,370,000 b/d,
almost 17% up compared to volumes exported daily between January
and May 2019, with additions having reached 350,000 b/d.
There is a minor increase to report in volumes lifted from
Russian Far East during the last couple of months as well, but with
current levels close to this year's average so far, marginally
above 1,000,000 b/d. Competition for grades exported from the
region has been much higher this year, primarily due to the further
expansion of US production and exports.
In terms of destinations, there hasn't been any significant
changes so far, with European importers still absorbing most of the
barrels coming from Baltic and Black Sea, while China, South Korea
and Japan continue importing most of Russian Far Eastern
barrels.
Elsewhere, after a bankruptcy declared earlier this year,
Russia's biggest independent oil refinery went through some severe
restructuring and resumed operations last month. The Antipinsky
Refinery now plans to double its production month-on-month. Up to
550,000 tons of crude oil will be processed in August, more than
double the 200,000 tons of crude it processed in July. This is the
only oil-processing plant in the Tyumen region and Ural Federal
District. The main creditor of the refinery, Sberbank, a joint
venture between SOCAR Energoresurs and SOCAR, has recently acquired
80% of the refinery. Processing capacity currently stands
marginally above 180,000 b/d.
Posted 23 August 2019 by Fotios Katsoulas, Liquid Bulk Principal Analyst, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence
