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US crop protection market outlook

21 July 2022 Darren Stobbart

S&P Global's sector outlook reports provide estimates for 2022 and forecasts to 2030 across a selection of significant countries and crop groups, updated on a quarterly basis. The proprietary model inputs S&P Global's forecast harvested area, exchange rate and inflation data through an API and our own insights and research of key crop protection market drivers (e.g., weather, weed, disease, insect pressure, new traits, banning and deregistration, competition, and innovation) to provide a unique viewpoint for our clients.

Corn

  • The combined market for herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides is forecasted to grow high single digits in 2022 with a 1.2% CAGR through 2030.
  • Total harvested, planted area and production are forecasted to decrease low single digits % in 2022 due to farmers opting to plant less fertiliser intensive crops and weather.
  • Expect Significant downside to prices in 2023 (investment opportunity costs, less demand for gasoline blending)

Soybeans

  • The combined market for herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides is forecasted to grow low double digits in 2022 with a CAGR <1% through 2030.
  • Total harvested area and production are forecasted to increase low single digits % in 2022 (benefitting from farmers swapping out of corn).
  • Exports are forecast to decline low single digits in 2022 as Brazil ramps its exports significantly.

Cotton

  • The combined market for herbicide and insecticide is forecasted to increase high single digits in 2022 with a 1.5% CAGR through 2030.
  • Total planted area is forecast to increase by low double digits this year as farmers responded to favorable prices.
  • Total cotton production is forecast to decrease low single digits in 2022 due to declining crop conditions/greater abandonment.
  • Cotton prices are forecast to up a little <5% in 2022 due to lower supply, inventories, and drought conditions. Exports will increase marginally on lower consumer spending for textiles.

Ask Darren a question about the crop market.

Posted 21 July 2022 by Darren Stobbart, Senior Analyst, Crop Science, S&P Global Commodity Insights



This article was published by S&P Global Commodity Insights and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

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