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Rejoining the Paris Accord on climate change will be easy for US
President-elect Joe Biden compared with the task of revising a goal
to reach economywide net zero carbon levels by mid century.
Climate analysts and attorneys alike say rejoining the 2015
accord should not pose a problem for Biden because it is a
non-binding international agreement that doesn't commit the US to
making any carbon emissions cuts. It merely urges all signatories
to make a good faith effort to commit to carbon emissions cuts so
that temperatures do not rise by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius by
2050.
Procedurally, it would be very easy for Biden, Daniel Bodansky,
senior adviser at the Washington D.C.-based Center for Climate and
Energy Solutions, and Elliot Diringer, the center's executive vice
president, wrote in a
joint blog. "He can rejoin the Paris Agreement on Day 1, simply
by depositing an instrument of acceptance with the UN
Secretary-General. Thirty days later, the United States will again
be a party," they wrote.
The real challenge for the Biden administration is to put
forward a new nationally determined contribution (NDC) for the US
that is widely viewed as "ambitious and credible," Bob Perciasepe,
the center's president, told IHS Markit.
Climate change on National Security agenda
As president-elect, Biden already has made global climate change
a priority of his administration, elevating the issue for the first
time to the National Security Council level, and by appointing
former Secretary of State John Kerry as the first presidential
envoy on climate. Kerry was the top US diplomat involved in the
talks that led to the Paris Agreement.
"For the first time ever, there will be a principal on the
National Security Council who will make sure climate change is on
the agenda in the Situation Room," Biden said 24 November,
introducing Kerry.
During his election campaign, Biden pledged to achieve a
net-zero carbon-emitting US power sector by 2035 and net-zero
carbon emissions across the economy by 2050.
If Biden adopts his campaign pledge as the US national
contribution, it would place the country on a much faster and
ambitious energy transition than the commitment President Barack
Obama made in March 2015, according to climate analysts.
Obama goal 'a placeholder'
Obama committed to achieving a 26%-28% economywide reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions compared with 2005 levels by 2025.
"It is not yet clear whether in rejoining the Paris Agreement
the United States will introduce a new, higher level of commitment
in keeping with the president-elect's plan," Steven Knell, senior
director of IHS Markit's Gas, Power and Energy Futures group, wrote
in a 13 November insight article.
Knell, who specializes in low-carbon transitions, opined that
the US may retain its 2015 commitment as a placeholder until a new
target can be formulated, "potentially in support of the global
stock-take to raise the NDC ambition by 2023 called for under the
Paris Agreement."
Biden to date has expressed no misgivings about moving forward
with adopting his campaign climate pledge.
"Let me be clear: I don't for a minute underestimate the
difficulties of meeting my bold commitments to fighting climate
change. But at the same time, no one should underestimate for a
minute my determination to do just that," Biden said 24
November.
Multi-agency effort
To get to the point where the US can commit to Biden's campaign
pledge would require a White House-led multi-agency effort, as was
the case during the Obama administration, according to Janet
McCabe, who headed the Environmental Protection Agency's Office of
Air and Radiation in 2015.
Five years ago, the Obama White House staff drew on multiple
agencies, including the EPA, with expertise in forecasting and
reducing emissions to pull together a mix of voluntary and
mandatory carbon reduction programs that would inform the US
nationally determined commitment to the Paris Agreement, said
McCabe, who currently is the director of Indiana University's
Environmental Resilience Institute.
By all accounts, she said, Biden likely will issue an executive
order that is expected to provide guidance to various agencies,
including EPA and the departments of Interior, Energy and
Transportation, on issues to tackle early. These will include
revisiting Obama-era greenhouse gas regulations for passenger cars
and light trucks, power plants, and oil and gas facilities that
President Donald Trump has weakened over the past four years
through executive fiats and rulemakings.
"The various agencies will want to work together quickly to
assess reduction opportunities, updating those predictions from
2016, since much has changed in the country in the last four years,
including the urgency for steep reductions in carbon emissions,"
McCabe said.
White House Climate Policy Coordinator
Biden said 24 November he plans to name a high-level White House
Climate Policy Coordinator along with a policy-making structure in
December that will lead US efforts to mobilize action to combat the
climate crisis. Former EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy, who
spearheaded the nation's first ever greenhouse gas regulation for
power plants, is reportedly the top candidate for this
position.
Perciasepe said Biden doesn't have to commit to an economywide
net carbon zero by mid century as part of its updated national
commitments. The Paris Agreement allows each country to update its
NDC every five years.
The US can start off with Biden's initial pledge to decarbonize
the electric power sector, which is best positioned to achieve the
cuts rapidly. In the short term, Perciasepe said the US power
industry can replace coal with natural gas and renewables, while
preserving nuclear and hydro generation—two sources of zero
carbon emissions—that represent 25% of power generation.
By 2030, the US can revisit its national contribution to carbon
emissions and take steps like cutting emissions by gas-fired power
plants.
'Serious Muscle'
Kerry's appointment comes at a crucial juncture as countries
will resume climate talks that were disrupted by the coronavirus
pandemic. The 26th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) is now scheduled to
meet in November 2021 in Glasgow, UK, when most expect the US to
not only bump up its five-year-old contribution but take a leading
role in talks.
At that meeting, most countries will expect the US, as a world
leader, to either report on its national contribution or show what
it could be, Perciasepe said.
Perciasepe said Biden is putting "some serious muscle" into the
international arena on climate change by appointing Kerry, a former
US senator, a Democratic presidential nominee and a former
Secretary of State, to take on the portfolio of climate change.
"This action alone sends a very powerful statement on the
domestic and international fronts," said Perciasepe, who served
under Obama as EPA deputy administrator from 2009 through 2017.
Lauding Biden's climate pledge, Kerry said the US, which
accounts for 15% of global GHG emissions, cannot solve the climate
crisis alone. "Mr. President-elect — you've put forward a bold,
transformative climate plan that lives up to the moment. But you've
also underscored that no country alone can solve this challenge,"
Kerry said. "The world must come to the table."
Alluding to the COP-26 meeting, Kerry said that "all nations
must raise ambition together - or we will all fail, together."
Posted 16 December 2020 by Amena Saiyid, Senior Climate & Energy Research Analyst, IHS Markit