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As the vaccine campaign is well under way in critical markets,
the perceived slow uptake of vaccines in several countries is
in-line with our expectations of a broad access to the vaccine in
mid-2021. This is mainly due to the high level of logistical
barriers, unrealistic target expectations and limited vaccine
supply. At the country level, the vaccination uptake also depends
on the country's willingness to engage in direct investment and
advanced purchase agreements (APAs), as well as its ability to pay
for the doses. Vaccine prices are a key component of the equation;
and although price levels are often not disclosed, APAs - which are
tracked in our weekly report - provide a useful estimate in terms
of future vaccine pricing.
According to our Weekly COVID19 R&D Tracker, 17 vaccine
candidates intended for COVID-19 are in Phase III development or
approved. Given the urgency of the situation, approval processes
have commonly been accelerated.
Approvals in major pharmaceutical markets (Australia,
Canada, EU, US)
The below table provides approval dates for the three main
vaccines in circulation in the US, Australia, Canada and EU.
Last week, a new entrant by Johnson & Johnson was approved
in the US just as Canada announced the marketing authorization of
the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine.
Without surprise, the Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca COVID-19
vaccines are the ones who garnered the largest number of APAs
worldwide since the beginning of the pandemic. AstraZeneca ranks at
the top place in terms of number of doses ordered, closely followed
by the Johnson & Johnson vaccine which represents an important
addition to the growing list of vaccines being distributed
globally.
Vaccine pricing
Future vaccine pricing can be estimated by looking at the
various APAs signed to date. Our data provides the order value of
the APA and the number of doses ordered for 20 APAs. A selection
for the United States is listed below.
For example, the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, which is sold on a
non-profit basis, ranges in price per dose between USD0.82 in the
UK, and about USD14.62 under the Australian deal. Meanwhile, the
Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, which is sold on a for-profit basis, is
priced at USD19.50 per dose for the US market under the current
APA. In comparison, mRNA-1273 is priced at around USD15.25 per dose
under the APA with Moderna.
Of course, the eventual price levels may differ from the price
level under APAs if and when the vaccines are fully approved. The
Serum Institute of India, which will manufacture certain doses of
AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCov-19) under contract with AstraZeneca, and NVX
CoV2373 under contract with Novavax, has set a ceiling price for
LMICs of USD3 per dose for future vaccines produced under these
contracts. In Africa, an investigation by UK newspaper the
Financial Times found that vaccines supplied will cost USD9.75 for
Sputnik V, USD3 for AstraZeneca's AZD1222 and for Novavax's
NVX-CoV2373 produced by SII, USD6.75 for Pfizer/BioNTech's
Comirnaty vaccine, and USD10 for Johnson & Johnson's
single-dose vaccine.
These estimates highlight how COVID-19 vaccine prices vary
between brands and countries. That said, final price levels may
sometimes be very different from those anticipated, as exemplified
by latest findings related to Russia's Sputnik V - originally
touted as a cheap alternative to Western vaccines - which suggest
that the vaccine is in fact more expensive than rivals with similar
efficacy.
