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Power demand in major Southeast Asian (SEA) countries fluctuated
during 2021. The following figure compares the 2020-21 year-on-year
(y/y) power demand growth rate in Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore,
Thailand, and the Philippines.
Most of the SEA countries started to impose regulations to
battle COVID-19 since the end of March 2020. The power demand or
market were not largely affected in January and February of 2020,
considered as pre-COVID-19 comparative months. Most markets
featured a y/y demand drop in January and February 2021, indicating
that the power demand had yet to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels but
increased significantly in March. In the first quarter, Vietnam was
the only nation with a positive y/y power demand (average 4.6%),
while the Philippines and Thailand witnessed a substantial decline
in y/y power demand, with an average of 8.5% and 5.2%,
respectively.
The power demand has risen in SEA region during the second
quarter, with positive y/y power demand growth ranging from 3.7% to
19.1%. It revealed that the market was beginning to recover from
COVID-19, suggesting a rebound in power market demand. Vietnam had
the highest y/y power demand growth rate, with an average of 12.5%,
which is followed by the Philippines (average 10.5%), Singapore
(average 9.8%), Malaysia (average 8.2%), and lastly, Thailand
(average 6.3%).
By the third quarter, the highly transmittable Delta variant of
COVID-19 had struck the SEA region and stalled the power market
recovery. The following section presents the details of each
market's power market scenario:
The scenario in Malaysia was considerably
complicated, involving the coronavirus, the economy, and politics.
The unravelling COVID-19 situation can be partly explained by
political instability. Slow vaccination has forced the government
to rely on repeated tightening restrictions to curb the spread of
COVID-19, causing major disruptions in business operations. After
the new Prime Minister was appointed in August and a rise in
vaccination rates, the power market has been slowly rebounding,
albeit it remained in negative growth.
Among all SEA countries, Vietnam is one of the
highest industrialized with a large unvaccinated population. With
the surge of COVID cases, the country imposed strict stay-at-home
orders and demanded more factories to shut down. The economy was
strangled by lockdowns, triggering a sharp drop to negative y/y
growth in power demand for July and August.
Meanwhile, the impacts of the Delta variant of COVID-19 have
been minimal in Singapore. Even though the Phase 2
measures were imposed in the third quarter, the power market
continued to grow at a rate ranging from 4.4% to 8%. The country
has high vaccination rates and has started to impose the booster.
The government proclaimed to adopt a "living with COVID-19"
approach soon, which would include ease of more COVID-19
restrictions.
Thailand has a similar trend as Singapore,
which is still performing a y/y power demand growth amid the Delta
variant outbreak. This is mostly owing to Thailand's severe
economic recession in 2020. As a result, there has been some
recovery momentum in power market, with an average y/y power demand
increment of 2.2% for July and August. September power market data
was still unavailable, but they are estimated to remain at the same
level as the third quarter.
The SEA's robust power demand recovery from COVID-19 is losing
momentum as a highly infectious Delta variant surge driving more
tightened restrictions and factories shut down. However, the power
market is expected to rebound if community immunity is achieved and
countries find their way to live with COVID-19.
Although the power market recovery is fluctuating, the SEA
region has never retreated in the climate change front, and the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) governments have
continued to work on several measures to keep their emission
targets. In the third quarter of 2021, Indonesia, Malaysia, and
Myanmar submitted their updated nationally determined contributions
(NDCs).
On 22 July, Indonesia submitted an updated NDC
and kept the same emission reduction target as the last one, 29% of
unconditional reduction and up to 41% conditional reduction of the
business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030. Although the updated NDC
did not commit to a net-zero target, the Long-Term Strategy (LTS)
documents ― "Vision Indonesia 2045" and the "Long-Term Strategy on
Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Development 2050" offered
long-term emission scenarios toward net-zero emission in 2060 or
sooner in Indonesia. Additionally, support was received from the
state-owned electricity utility PLN, which pledged to stop
developing coal-fired power plants after 2023 and that could reduce
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 7‒11%.
Malaysia submitted the updated NDC targets in
its climate change action plan by 30 July. It set a more ambitious
carbon intensity reduction target, raising its unconditional
reduction target from 35% to 45%. The revised NDCs also expanded
the GHG coverage from three to seven gases including
CO2, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide
(N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons
(PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and nitrogen
trifluoride (NF3). Also, National Low Carbon Cities
Master Plan (NLCCM) and a 35 million ringgit under the Low Carbon
Cities Catalyst Grant (GeRAK) were launched, as initiatives by
government to promote climate change measures and create a
sustainable urbanization plan, as urbanization is one of the main
sources of GHG emissions.
Myanmar released its new NDC with details about
the GHG emission target by 25 August. The Burmese government sets a
conditional GHG emission reduction target of 144 million metric
tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMtCO2e) in the
energy sector by 2030, against the BAU scenario of 297
MMtCO2e. In parallel, the unconditional target is
looking to decrease 105.25 MMtCO2e by 2030 compared with
the BAU scenario. This will be achieved by increasing the share of
solar and wind energy to 53.5% (from 2,000 MW to 3,070 MW) and
improving energy efficiency by 20% (resulting in 15
MMtCO2e decreases in emission by 2030).
