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What would happen to the world cost curves for Ethylene
and Polyethylene-HDPE if oil prices don't rise to the IHS Markit
forecast?
World Cost Curve: Ethylene
The Middle East average cost advantage vs. North America
increases from $67 to $106, largely a consequence of cracker feed
mix region to region, as directionally the United States is getting
lighter as Middle East is getting heavier.
At the same time, Northeast Asia becomes much more competitive
in comparison to both North America and the Middle East.
This should translate to more competitive Chinese and other
North East Asian ethylene derivatives.
This can be clearly seen for HDPE for integrated economics for
those producers with ethylene production.
World Cost Curve: Polyethylene - HDPE
The average NAM cost advantage for HDPE delivered to China
compared to domestically produced Chinese HDPE is reduced by $162
per ton for the lower oil price scenario.
The Middle East cost delivered cost advantage is reduced by
about the same magnitude.
IHS Markit Competitive Cost & Margin Analytics can help you
assess the cost and margin positions of operating chemical plants
according to geography, capacity, time, technology, feedstock,
operating rate and integration level.
