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The automotive industry is expected to face considerable
challenges during the entire decade ahead, resulting from sizable
and durable transformations in the mobility sector linked to
gradual advancements in autonomous driving technology, major shifts
in powertrain trends, compounded by the aftermath of the COVID-19
pandemic, and of course the implementation of more stringent light
vehicle CO2 targets.
The IHS Markit forecast predicts an accelerated deployment of
electrified powertrain technologies in Europe, with sustained gains
for mild-hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs) and battery electric
vehicles (BEV) over the coming decade. The shares of hybrid-full
electric vehicles (HEVs) and hybrid-full plug-in vehicles (PHEV)
will also continue to increase, albeit with less extensive growth.
Consequently, the shares of non-electrified vehicles (Internal
Combustion Engine (ICE) and ICE: Stop/Start) dropping below 75% for
the first time in 2021, initiate a significant and continuous
decline, reaching less than 20% in 2025 and then less than 5% by
2030. Concurrently, diesel technology will continue its decline,
falling below 25% for the first time in 2022 and with shares more
than halved by 2030. Evidently, the simultaneous rise of
electricity as a fuel type is intrinsically linked to the expansion
of BEV technology as a mode of propulsion.
Following IHS Markit's analysis of the short-term challenges
posed by the 2020 EU passenger car CO2 target, the
latest whitepaper provides details on key measures to reduce CO₂
along with an emphasis on resulting incremental powertrain cost.
Measures taken to achieve compliance is uniquely assessed for each
car manufacturer based on their technical and historical trends as
well as their compliance position.
