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CO₂ compliance and investments for EU passenger car manufacturers

07 December 2020 Vijay Subramanian

The automotive industry is expected to face considerable challenges during the entire decade ahead, resulting from sizable and durable transformations in the mobility sector linked to gradual advancements in autonomous driving technology, major shifts in powertrain trends, compounded by the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and of course the implementation of more stringent light vehicle CO2 targets.

The IHS Markit forecast predicts an accelerated deployment of electrified powertrain technologies in Europe, with sustained gains for mild-hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) over the coming decade. The shares of hybrid-full electric vehicles (HEVs) and hybrid-full plug-in vehicles (PHEV) will also continue to increase, albeit with less extensive growth. Consequently, the shares of non-electrified vehicles (Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) and ICE: Stop/Start) dropping below 75% for the first time in 2021, initiate a significant and continuous decline, reaching less than 20% in 2025 and then less than 5% by 2030. Concurrently, diesel technology will continue its decline, falling below 25% for the first time in 2022 and with shares more than halved by 2030. Evidently, the simultaneous rise of electricity as a fuel type is intrinsically linked to the expansion of BEV technology as a mode of propulsion.

Following IHS Markit's analysis of the short-term challenges posed by the 2020 EU passenger car CO2 target, the latest whitepaper provides details on key measures to reduce CO₂ along with an emphasis on resulting incremental powertrain cost. Measures taken to achieve compliance is uniquely assessed for each car manufacturer based on their technical and historical trends as well as their compliance position.

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