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A recent study by the University
of Cambridge stated 2019 saw the "highest level of democratic
discontent on record". Dissatisfaction with democracy in developed
countries had increased from a third to half of all citizens over
the last 25 years. The last two years have also seen several
large-scale and disruptive protests - including in the special
administrative region of Hong Kong; Santiago, Chile; political
violence in the US, Thailand, Belarus, India, and now in Myanmar;
anti-corruption protests in Lebanon; anti-racism protests around
the world; anti-lockdown protests in several countries. Broad
trends in political sentiment, it seems, are linked to concrete
threats to personnel and assets.
Here we look at correlations between measures of political
dissatisfaction and our country-level protests & riots
scores. Our protest & riots score is well-correlated with
several widely respected survey measures on social themes that have
a bearing on long-term, strategic security concerns. Frustrations
with political institutions and dissatisfaction with the depth of
democratic governance, for example, are correlated with high risks
of civil unrest. Such high-level correlations are unsurprising and
of course cannot capture the complexity of local dynamics that
drive civil unrest. But five country-level examples below show how
these correlations can indicate which assets and personnel are at
risk during periods of unrest - extrapolating from strategic to
tactical.
The data
Our Economics & Country Risk
scores measure the risk of protests and riots over a 12-month
time horizon. The scores are based on granular local dynamics
assessed by our country risk experts. We combined these risk scores
with survey data from the World Value Survey (WVS) about
satisfaction with the political system and other indicators that
measure civil liberties (Freedom House) and the rule of law (World
Justice Project). The WVS is based on 72,879 representative
respondents from 50 countries interviewed between 2017 and 2020. To
evaluate respondents' assessment of democratic governance in their
country we use the following WVS question: "How democratically
is this country being governed today?" (answered on a scale
from 1 to 10). Interestingly, this subjective assessment of
respondents is not correlated with objective measures of democracy
from the PolityProject or Freedom House. WVS respondents in
Tajikistan, China and Vietnam, for example, provide high average
ratings for democratic governance in their countries but the Polity
V rating on institutionalized democracy for those countries is
extremely low. There are several plausible reasons for this,
including respondents interpretation of key terms like
'democratically', relative improvement in governance in the years
preceding the survey, and in some cases tacit coercion when
answering. Overall, we assume respondents' answers are an
acceptable proxy for overall 'satisfaction' with the political
system under which they live.
To measure dissatisfaction with the political system we analyse
the following WVS question: "How satisfied are you with how the
political system is functioning in your country these days?",
(also answered on a scale from 1 to 10). This question is unrelated
to the nature of the political system and addresses how respondents
perceive the performance of the political system. The individuals'
understanding of "the political system" and its performance might
vary across countries.
Correlates of civil unrest
We find that the protests and riots risk rating is highly
correlated with the rule of law index (-0.7), the respondents'
perception of democratic governance in their country (-0.5) and the
respondents' satisfaction with the political system performance
(-0.4).
In countries where citizens perceive a lack of democratic
participation and representation, there is a greater risk of
protests and riots. Citizens in the Asia-Pacific region report that
their countries are more democratically governed on average than
those in other regions, yet within the region there is still a
higher degree of variation in the risk of protests and riots. Of
all countries in the WVS dataset, Singapore records the lowest
protests and riots risk score (at 0.2), yet in Pakistan where
citizens report roughly the same levels of democratic governance,
the protests and riots risk score is far higher (at 3.1).
In countries where respondents are highly satisfied with the
performance of their political system the protests and riots risk
rating is lowest. High levels of dissatifcation as for example in
Brazil, Iraq or Zimbabwe are correlated with a high risk or
protests and riots over the next 12 months. Satisfaction with the
political system is highest in Asia and Europe while respondens in
Latin America, the Middle East and Africa are more critical.
Country cases
The correlations above are often - but not always - reflected at
a country-level and survey data can indicate in concrete terms the
assets and personnel at risk during periods of civil unrest. Five
examples from around the world show this:
Pakistan (2018 data)
Respondents in Pakistan in 2018 showed more satisfaction in the
country's political system (6.4 out of 10) than respondents in more
established democracies in the region, like Japan (5.6), Australia
(5.7), New Zealand (5.5) and India (6.1). But Pakistan had the
highest protest and riot risk score in Asia-Pacific that year at
3.1, driven partly a contentious parliamentary election in August
but mostly by conservative Islamist groups agitating over blasphemy
issues. That Pakistani respondents were most likely in the region
to consume social media news demonstrates the wide scope for
misinformation triggering disruptive unrest over polarising issues,
despite overall satisfaction in political institutions.
Iraq (2018)
Iran's decision to cut off electricity supplies to Iraq led to
protests across southern Iraq in July 2018, the most serious and
long-lasting of which took place in Basra province. The perception
that political elites, particularly Shia Islamist political parties
and associated militias, had vastly enriched themselves at the
expense of the local population increased local resentment towards
Islamist parties (reflected in Iraq's corruption score of 6.5).
Indeed, Iraqi respondents were largely unsatisfied with the
performance of their political system, which is dominated by these
parties (3.27 out of 10). This was evident on 6-7 September 2018
when political party offices were burned. Protestors also set
alight the Iranian Consulate in Basra.
Ethiopia (2020, 2018)
Living in a democratically governed country was extremely
important to Ethiopians in 2020 - when a civil conflict with
political and ethnic drivers broke out in Tigray (9.5 on a scale of
1 to 10). Ethiopia had scored only 3 (on a scale from 1 to 10) for
institutionalized democracy in the Polity V rating. Ahead of the 5
June 2021 general elections, from which multiple major opposition
parties have claimed they are being unfairly excluded by the
government, protests will regularly include participants
perpetrating politically- and ethnically-targeted violence against
state and party offices, local individuals, and locally-owned homes
and businesses.
Chile (2019)
Chile leads Latin America in civil liberties and satisfaction
with democracy, according to international ratings. Its main social
challenge has been deep economic inequality - Chile's Gini
coefficient of incomes is 44.4, higher than most 'high income'
countries (2017 World Bank data). An increase in subway fares in
Santiago triggered protests in October 2019 that quickly coalesced
into demands to change the state's neoliberal economic model. Six
weeks of nationwide protests, including arson on metro stations and
public buses and looting of retail stores, caused more than USD4.5
billion in damage. The process to re-write the constitution - a key
demand - will start with elections this April and is likely to
significantly reduce civil unrest in 2021 - potentially helping to
vindicate Chileans' confidence in their political institutions.
Kyrgyzstan (2020)
Disputed general elections in October 2020 triggered widespread
protests in Kyrgyzstan. But Kyrgyz survey responses indicate
relatively strong confidence in government (2.5 on a scale from 4
to 1) democratic governance (6.4 out of 10), and households'
satisfaction with their financial situation (7.5 out of 10).
Indeed, the costliest commercial damage was perpetrated by
organized criminal groups targeting mining companies across the
country with break-in attempts, theft and arson. Early presidential
elections on 10 January resulted in a landslide victory for Sadyr
Zhaparov, whose populist policies are likely to polarize and test
Kyrgyz satisfaction in national political institutions - likely
increasing the frequency of civil unrest.
Civil unrest in the coming years will be driven by a range of
issues, including livelihood grievances if governments struggle to
steer their economies towards post-pandemic recovery. Understanding the nuances of those
drivers will indicate which assets and personnel will be at
risk.
Posted 24 February 2021 by Asad Ali, Senior Analyst – Asia Pacific, Country Risk & FCM, IHS Markit and
Carla Selman, Senior Research Analyst, Country Risk, IHS Markit and
