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Mexico Customs bill of lading (BOL) data allows us to track
US-Mexico cross-border trade using all transport modes such as
truck, rail, maritime, pipeline and air. With data now available
through September 2020 (week 39), we can continue to monitor rates
of COVID-19 disruption and recovery YTD 2020 compared to 2019.
Mexico didn't impose large-scale quarantines until the last week
of March 2020 (week 13) so export volumes were relatively flat
through week 13 even as the quarantines affected trade for many
other countries of the world. However, the export contraction
reflected significantly in April 2020 (weeks 14-17) and worsened
into May 2020 (weeks 18-21), with recovery signs reflecting in June
2020 (weeks 22-26) and July (weeks 27-30).
August (weeks 31-34) reflected the first month since March for
which year-on-year growth in TEU exports was observed (2.89%
growth) compared to the same period in 2019. Weeks 32-39 showed
growth in the 0-10% range. In fact, in week 39, the last week in
September, exports grew at the strongest rate (10.13%) since week
26 (26.48% growth), the last week in June. However, as recently as
week 36, growth was flat (0.66%), showing inconsistent
recovery.
Mexico-Reported Containerized Exports to US by TEU, all
transport modes
Source: IHS Markit PIERS (Note only
complete calendar weeks charted)
Comparing month-over-month trends, the downward trend is
apparent in Mexico's TEU export volumes for the months of April and
into May, with consistent export performance June-September.
Notably, February, March, August and September represent the only
months representing year-over-year growth in 2020 thus far.
Mexico-Reported Containerized Exports to US by TEU, all
transport modes
Most cross-border containerized goods are moved by truck (~83%),
followed by rail (~12.5%) then maritime (~4%), with little change
year-on-year even throughout the pandemic disruption.
Analyzing the same period using metric tons (MTONs), which
contains cargos both containerized and non, we can quantify the
beginning of the recovery, disproportionately affecting different
industries and their companies. The first 34 weeks of the year
showed a 16.2% decrease by total value in USD.
Mexico-Reported Total Exports to US by MTONs, all
transport modes
By USD value, the top five Mexico export commodities are in the
areas of data processing machines, motor vehicles and parts, and
crude oil. Exports of passenger vehicles (HS 8703) fell 30.7%
year-on-year. Automatic data process machines (HS 8471) grew 7.6%
year-on-year for the same comparison period.
Crude oil (HS 2709) export volumes increased 8.0% MTONs
year-on-year 2019 to 2020, but the crash in crude oil prices
globally resulted in a decline of 32.5% by value.
Mexico carries a trade surplus with the US, exporting more than
it imports from its neighbour. For the first 39 weeks of the year,
Mexico increased import MTONs from the US by 3.4% year-on-year 2019
to 2020 but decreased import value by 19.2% USD overall, with wild
swings depending on the specific commodity category.
Mexico-Reported Total Imports from US by MTONs, all
transport modes
Looking ahead to the October 2020 containerized
baseline
October 2020 data is not expected to be released until
approximately November 24, 2020. The October 2019 baseline TEU
volumes for comparison purposes were approximately 518,670 a 3.9%
month-on-month decrease over September 2019 volumes.
