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A Changing Crude Oil Market and Implications for Asian Buyers

25 January 2019 Anindya Boral Dr. Victor Shum

IHS Markit presented the Maritime & Trade Workshop "A Changing Crude Oil Market and Implications for Asian Buyers" in Tokyo and Singapore in January 2019. For those of you who missed the chance to attend our workshop, download a copy of the presentation by Dr. Victor Shum and Anindya Boral

Summary of Presentation:

Global Crude Oil Trade: What Does the Future Hold?
Dr. Victor Shum, Vice President of Energy Consulting

Amid the intensifying competition for crude imports in Asia, China will remain the world's #1 importer. The US will remain the #2 importer, despite its rising crude production, owing to its heavy sour crude refining slate. India will remain the #3 importer but will see the biggest volumetric gain in imports. All crude flows will lead to Asia. The surplus of Atlantic Basin crude will widen, leading to steady increases in exports to Asia. Asia's import requirements will continue to rise as its consumption increases and its local crude production continues to fall off. The Middle East - the world's largest crude producing and exporting region - is a key source of global crude production growth and exports. Export growth, however, is constrained because the region will consume an increasing share of its own crude, with the addition of new refineries.

Advanced Analytics and Big Data for Energy Market Insights
Anindya Boral, Executive Director of Maritime and Trade

Commodity market participants are increasingly looking at alternative data sources and advanced analytics to uncover actionable trading and investment opportunities in a volatile market. Real-time commodity movement information can provide firms with an edge with powerful insights into where commodity shortfalls or gluts may emerge thus creating trading signals. IHS Markit's in-house data science team collaborated with maritime and energy market experts to build algorithms that combine vast quantities of ship movements and maritime reference data with energy market intelligence to generate critical insights into "on-the-water" movements and flow forecasts of key commodities at a global scale. Our offering for crude oil covers the world's seaborne flows and with high levels of accuracy. From connecting the dots on crude oil flows between key producing and receiving regions to identifying early warnings on disruptions in the market to generating insights into activity in pinch-point regions and opaque parts of the market, we can deliver critical intelligence on crude oil market fundamentals as it happens.



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