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CES 2020: Technology drives architecture transformation in the vehicle, bringing disruption and opportunity
03 January 2020
At CES 2020, experts from IHS Markit expect to see a wide-range
of companies from automakers and traditional industry suppliers to
start-ups and mega technology firms touting their newest ideas,
concepts, and production-ready innovations - all with the aim of
reinventing what the automobile is and what it can do.
Regarding the automotive industry, the announcements made and
exhibits on display will relate to these broad themes:
Automated driving today and Autonomous mobility of the
future
Data monetization and the transformation of the Connected
Car
Evolution of in-vehicle user experience, from software to
virtual assistants
Architecture transformation from ECUs to servers on wheels
Each category has an amazing breadth and depth as firms both
inside and outside the automotive industry position themselves for
the biggest piece of -- what is expected to be -- a very lucrative
pie. IHS Markit covers each of these sectors very closely and will
have several experts at the 2020 CES to witness the innovation and
provide commentary about the impact of the various announcements to
the global automotive industry.
ADAS to Autonomy
2019 was a year of realignment—realigning expectations for
the deployment of SAE Level 4 and Level 5 autonomous vehicles, and
realigning strategies in vehicle content as well as research and
development. Aggressive deployment timelines for autonomous driving
have been recalibrated to match both the technical and business
complexities of the challenge, while partnerships and joint
ventures aimed at combining expertise and offsetting massive costs
will continue to develop. Autonomous mobility will continue to
shape the industry in the short and long term.
As a balance against the slower expected rollout of full
autonomy, the year 2019 saw significant growth in the availability
and standardization of safety and convenience features known as
ADAS and automated driving. This has been driven by a combination
of strategic brand differentiation, planned regulatory updates, and
consumers prioritizing safety and convenience features. ADAS
features focused on safety such as automatic emergency braking
(AEB) are increasingly included as standard equipment in both
premium and volume brands; convenience-oriented ADAS but especially
the latest generation of Automated Driving Systems (classified as
Level 2 and 3 under SAE J3016) now serve as the battleground for
differentiation, branding, and technology leadership.
IHS Markit projects Level 2 and Level 3 automated vehicles will
grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 21% between
2019 and 2025 as brands expand their tech offerings and adapt to
changing market demands.
CES 2020 will see a wide variety of companies showcasing their
latest innovations for both automated and autonomous vehicles
including camera, radar, lidar, and other technologies. Consumers
will continue to await mainstream autonomy, but today's ADAS and
automated driving features will satisfy most consumers' demands
while also providing critical growth for the industry to continue
investing in autonomous mobility over the long term.
Data in the Connected Car
CES 2020 will prove that data rules the day. For the last few
years, the headlines around Connected Car have been focused on new
use-cases and developing business models in this new vehicle
ecosystem. The importance of vehicle-to-everything (V2X)
technology, the convenience and opportunity of bringing our
personal connected lifestyles into the car, and either the intrigue
or anxiety around the emerging concept of in-car advertising are a
few examples of this.
Many of these stories had to do with enabling hardware, ranging
from connecting the fleet of new vehicles to ensuring these sensors
and antennas can handle the future needs of data-hungry users. In
2019, more than 50 million new vehicles were produced with a
telematics control unit. In 2025, that number will reach nearly 72
million, according to IHS Markit forecasts. Equally as important is
the fact that 99% of these TCUs will offer 4G LTE or greater
bandwidth in 2025, compared to 80% in 2019.
This year, CES will highlight the next big industry
transformation that revolves around how the data coming from these
antennas and sensors can be monetized. From the evolution of
Connected Services, Location-Based Commerce, new In-Car Payment
techniques and a significant amount of work being done around the
collection, cleansing, and shaping of Data Exchange itself - this
market is no longer strictly focused on selling hard parts. CES
2020 will tell the story of the post-sale content and
revenue opportunities stemming from these vehicles for years to
come.
Transforming User Experience
For the majority of the past decade, the interior of the vehicle
has lagged behind the Consumer Electronic Device market in terms of
technology. While the Apple iPhone and Android phones were getting
larger, faster, and filled with more content, displays in vehicles
remained in the 5-8-inch range and were not being made a priority
in the vehicle. Automakers have come to the realization that their
technology on the interior of the vehicle is not only an important
factor in a consumer's purchase, but also a brand differentiator.
From 2019 to 2025, IHS Markit estimates nearly 46 million
additional displays will proliferate through the cockpit of new and
refreshed vehicle interiors (some vehicles will have multiple
displays). At CES this year, we can expect automakers and suppliers
to continue the trend of showcasing even more, and even larger,
displays in vehicles.
However, User Experience is not just about the displays in the
vehicle. It is how a person interacts with the vehicle from the
time they approach the car door to the time they leave their
vehicle and shut the door at their destination. Automakers are
finding new methods and refining existing ways to improve the
overall user experience. Visually, we will soon see Augmented
Reality Head-Up Display (AR-HUD) located on the front windshield of
the vehicle launched in vehicle platforms. AR-HUDs will create the
perception that information is on the road, including the vehicle's
speed, navigation directions, and hazards.
Audibly, Virtual Personal Assistants (VPAs) will continue to
take center stage as automakers rethink the way consumers interact
with their vehicles. Announcements are expected around the
proliferation of the likes of Amazon Alexa, Google Assistant, and
even OEM-branded VPA platforms.
From ECUs to Servers
Cars are getting smarter and greener. In large part, this is
because of advances in the semiconductors being used in cars.
Self-driving cars and infotainment will be prominently featured at
CES again this year, both the beneficiaries of the convergence
between consumer and automotive electronics. These advances are
paving way to the increased use of System-on-Chip (SoC) that bring
a level of computing capability previously unknown in automotive
applications. Along with this computing capability, there is a
similar convergence with memory and storage devices. As SoCs become
more common, there will be a corresponding increase in memory usage
and the requirement to support more capable sensors. Today, cars
have a limited number of cameras and radar -- and lidar is still
more the exception than the rule. Vehicles will go from limited
usage of cameras and radar to as many as twelve higher resolution
cameras, more radar sensors, and even lidar will begin to
appear.
According to IHS Markit, total semiconductors will have a CAGR
of 7.6% between 2018 and 2025. For ADAS, Infotainment, and EV/HEV
the total semiconductor CAGR is 13.6% while SOCs and memory will
have CAGRs of 18% and 16.1% respectively.
The combination of SoCs and memory is allowing Electronic
Control Units (ECUs) to be consolidated into Domain Controllers,
making the implementation of self-driving functionality more
feasible than trying to manage numerous independent ECUs. In
infotainment, the Cockpit Domain Controller is emerging to control
the instrument cluster, heads-up display, headunit, heating and air
conditioning, center stack display, and rear seat entertainment
systems. Domain Controllers will eventually result in the vehicle's
architecture becoming more centralized with high speed
Ethernet.
In terms of making cars greener, the electrification of the
powertrain continues to eliminate or reduce the size of internal
combustion engine. In addition to using SoCs, advances in Silicon
Carbon (SiC) and Gallium nitride (GaN) power devices are making the
use of these devices more practical. These devices in general
operate at higher voltages and switch faster than their silicon
counterparts making them attractive in electric (EV) and hybrid
electric vehicles (HEV). These advancements stem from the
convergence of consumer technology and automotive and are expected
to be on full display at CES this year.