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Canada’s housing starts fall in September, the longest losing streak since December 2019
26 October 2021Chulwoo Hong
Housing starts declined 4.4% month over month (m/m) to 251,151
units (annualized).
All housing starts segments fell as urban single and multiple
starts decreased 5.9% m/m and 4.0% m/m, respectively. Rural starts
decreased 4.0% m/m.
Starts dropped in half of the provinces, led by British
Columbia, Ontario, and Alberta.
While the declining trend was in line with our expectation,
third-quarter housing starts average was less than the IHS Markit
October forecast. Starts are expected to remain at a firm level in
the fourth quarter.
Movement in housing starts varied across segments and provinces
in the month. Notable changes include the big drop in British
Columbia's starts thanks to the outsized decline in Vancouver's
multiples. Yet, urban single starts in British Columbia rebounded
9.6% m/m after declining in the previous five months. The 8.5% m/m
decline in Ontario's housing starts was due to losses outside of
Toronto. Saskatchewan's housing starts hit a 14-month high with a
rebounding surge in multiples.
The number of residential building permits sharply dropped in
August, mainly due to the plunge in multiples, which supports our
forecast of a modestly decreasing trend of housing starts in the
short term partly due to the slow population growth. Together with
a modest downward revision for the second quarter's housing starts
and the lower-than-expected third-quarter results, downside risks
to the housing starts forecast is greater with some regional
variances. However, national housing starts in the fourth quarter
will likely be firmly higher than last year's level. Plus, while
growth in total dwellings under construction decelerated to the
slowest pace since December 2020 owing to the decrease in housing
starts, the record-high level of residential buildings under
construction will likely bring milder growth than the previous
quarter's increase for real business investment in new residential
construction in the near term.
Posted 26 October 2021 by Chulwoo Hong, Sr. Economist, Research advisory specialty solutions, S&P Global Market Intelligence
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