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African swine fever (or ASF), is a highly contagious viral
disease which affects domestic and wild pigs. The disease has
become a global threat to the entire pig industry and beyond. Once
infected, pigs with ASFV suffer from internal haemorrhaging and
will ultimately die within 10 days.
There is no available vaccine or treatment for the disease yet,
which means it is spreading across the globe and disrupting basic
protein availability, consumption patterns and the international
meat trade. However, ASF presents a significant opportunity for
those involved in understanding the science of the disease and in
developing interventions to combat its spread.
Disease Overview
ASF is endemic in many African countries, to which it was
limited until 2007 when the ASFV entered the country of Georgia. It
has since gone on to rapidly spread across Europe and now Asia,
reaching China in August 2018. More recently, Cambodia, Hong Kong,
Indonesia, South Korea, North Korea, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar,
Philippines, Timor Leste and Vietnam have all been affected.
The African swine fever virus (ASFV) affects all members of the
pig family, including domesticated swine, European wild boars,
warthogs, bush pigs and the giant forest hogs. ASF however does not
currently pose a risk to human health as it cannot be transmitted
to human beings.
The ASFV can be transmitted directly, indirectly through
contaminated feed and fomites, or can be vector-borne and
transmitted through ticks. Once the ASFV has been introduced,
infected swine develop high viral loads which are easily shed and
lead to further direct or indirect transmission via fomites, on
items like contaminated clothing, shoes, equipment and vehicles.
Infection through contamination (whether feed or, for example, mud
on a transport vehicle) is considered to be of primary concern.
This is why many European countries focused on raising awareness on
biosecurity. This is also why there has been a drive to develop
feed additives that can inactivate ASFV within feed.
Wild boar has also played an important role in spreading the
disease; however, larger geographical leaps in the spread of the
disease have been the result of human activity and the
international transportation of domestic pigs. For example, the
first outbreak of ASF outside Africa, was recorded in 1957 in
Portugal, where it is presumed to have been caused by the feeding
of pigs near Lisbon airport with food waste containing pork from
Angola.
Implementation of ASF control methods varies among countries
depending on the epidemiological status of the disease, that is
whether its endemic or not, and the predominant type of pig
production, traditional or backyard versus commercial.
Some of the most important biosecurity measures to prevent the
entrance of ASF into a commercial farm include:
• Fences,
• Restriction of visitors and vehicles,
• Use of dedicated clothes and footwear,
• Safe disposal of carcasses,
• Avoiding the use of potential contaminated feed including
swill.
• Introduction of new animals via quarantine and from well-known
sources.
In fact, the Czech Republic demonstrated in 2017, after ASF was
detected in two wild boars, how proper biosecurity measures can
eliminate ASF. The country took various measures including
increased passive surveillance, ban on hunting and wild boar
feeding and enclosing the risk-area with "odour" and electric
fences to ensure that the disease would remain contained and not
spread any further throughout the country or the region. The last
confirmed case of ASF in the Czech Republic was in February
2018.
Disease Impact
Broadly speaking, the presence of ASF has led to a dramatic
decrease in pig populations leading to shortened supplies of pork,
breeding stock, and in some cases significant price increases. This
is most notable in China where the price of pork has increased
significantly, and where the share prices of breeding companies
also increased due to high demand for pork.
China, the US, Germany, Spain and Brazil are the world's top pig
producers, producing over 60% of the world's pigs. Pig production
in these countries is made up of specialised medium-to-large
intensive commercial farms - except for China which we will move
onto shortly.
In contrast, there are traditional or backyard operations which
are more susceptible to ASF due to low implementation of adequate
biosecurity measures and the use of swill feed which remains an
important mode of transmission of the disease. It is worth noting
that countries in which ASF is endemic are primarily reliant on
backyard operations.
China has lost an estimated 50% of its pig population since the
first reported case of ASF in 2018. Unlike the other top producing
nations, China has a large share of backyard operations. It is
reported that 85% of the herd population loss has occurred among
small scale and backyard producers.
These losses have led to unprecedented shortages in the
country's pork supply, which has altered global trade flows and
will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. In order to
cater for the increasing demand in the wake of production loss,
global exports of pork are predicted to increase by 10% (at 10.4
million tonnes) in 2020 - a record high. Nonetheless, it is
believed that even through the increase of imports, China will
struggle to make up for its reduced production capacity due to
ASF.
Vaccine Search
Vaccination is, in principle, the most effective way of
controlling animal viral diseases through preventing mortality or
reducing morbidity. Live attenuated vaccines for ASF were used in
the 1960s in Spain and Portugal, but they led to the appearance of
chronic forms of ASF.
All other approaches including inactivated viruses, recombinant
proteins and DNA vaccines, have not yielded as yet, an effective
and safe ASF vaccine. As a result of this, Animal Pharm has seen a
global increase in the number of ASF-related technologies being
patented in the last 10 years. Based on this trend, it is expected
that patent filings and R&D funding will continue to grow over
the next few years.
A mixture of both public and private-sector organisations
appears as applicants (the owners) on ASF-related patents. Some
notable applicants include the University of Yangzhou in China,
which has been carrying out research on ASF as early as the
mid-2000s and filed its latest ASF related patent in 2019.
It is estimated that the value of an ASF Asian market vaccine
over a period of four years is likely be in the region of US$112
million. There has undoubtedly been an increase in patenting
activity with respect to ASF related technologies filed globally
over the past 10 years. Bearing in mind that patent filing data may
not yet be fully disclosed for applications filed in 2019, the
average increase of filings year-on-year appears to be around 13%.
Based on this trend, Animal Pharm expects growth in both patent
filings as well as private and public sector funding into related
R&D to continue.
A mixture of both public and private-sector organisations
appears to be applicants/assignees (the owners) on ASF-related
patents. Some notable top-10 applicants/assignees include the
University of Yangzhou (China), Qingdao Agricultural University
(China), US Department of Agriculture, with a focus on the ASFV
Georgia 2007 isolate, and Boehringer Ingelheim Vetmedica (DE). Some
of these organisations either have, or are in the process of,
commercialising their vaccine technologies. There are also other
forms of interventions being developed, including genetically
modified pigs which are resistant to ASF.
The European Commission estimates a timeline of around eight
years with a probability of success varying between 50 and 80%. In
the short-term, live attenuated vaccines (LAVs) are the most
promising candidates, but further research is needed to confirm
their safety and efficacy in long-term controlled experiments.
To find out more about the global trajectory of African
Swine Fever, download a sample of our latest 111-page
African Swine Feverreport, authored by Ingentium
Limited.
