Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
Black Sea 3Q21 agribulk exports forecast 7% higher on Russian wheat
13 July 2021Pranay Shukla, MICS, F.NMIS
As per the IHS Markit's Commodities at Sea, total
agribulk shipments from the Black Sea region during June 2021 stood
at 5.5mt (up 45 percent y/y) with wheat, corn, and barley at 2.8mt
(up 180 percent y/y), 2.6mt (up 5 percent) and 0.1mt (down 45
percent), respectively.
In terms of export countries, during the reported month,
agribulk shipments from Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria
stood at 2.2mt (down 1 percent y/y), 2.2mt (up 208 percent), 0.9mt
(up 17 percent), and 0.3mt (up 146 percent y/y), respectively. The
slowdown from Ukraine is due to a lower harvest in the 2020/21
season.
In terms of import regions, Black Sea agribulk shipments for the
reported month to North Africa, Mediterranean, NW Europe, and the
Middle East stood at 1.0mt (up 82 percent y/y), 0.8mt (up 138
percent), 1.0mt (up 40 percent), and 1.2mt (up 251 percent),
respectively.
In terms of vessel segments, shipments increased on Panamax
(0.9mt, up 3 percent y/y), Ultramax (0.9mt, up 137 percent),
Supramax (0.7mt, up 30 percent), and Large Handies (1.8mt, up 92
percent); while declined on Kamsaramax vessels (0.7mt, down 11
percent y/y).
As per IHS Markit's Commodities at Sea, Ukraine has shipped
45.8mt of agribulk commodities until end-June 2021 in the 2020/21
July-June season (versus 54.7mt in the same period a season
earlier). The decline was due to a smaller harvest. In January
2021, Ukraine decided to limit corn exports for the current crop
year at 24mt, following proposals from various domestic
agricultural as feed associations in the country.
Overall in the first half of 2021, total agribulk shipments from
the Black Sea region stood at 38.6mt (down 15 percent y/y), with
shipments for wheat, corn, and barley at 15.6mt (down 11 percent),
20.7mt (down 16 percent), and 2.2mt (down 8 percent),
respectively.
In terms of export countries, during 1H21, shipments from
Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria stood at 18.6mt (down 22
percent), 12.1mt (down 6 percent), 6.5mt (down 6 percent), and
1.6mt (down 28 percent). In terms of import regions, during 1H21,
shipments to North Africa, Mediterranean, NW Europe, and the Middle
East stood at 9.1mt (down 7 percent), 6.3mt (down 12 percent),
5.4mt (down 15 percent), and 6mt (down 25 percent).
Short-Medium term outlook
Russia had implemented a new floating duty on agribulk exports
from 02 June 2021, which is changed every week, and was set for
wheat, barley, and corn for the period 07-13 July 2021 at $41.2/t,
$37/t, and $50.6/t, respectively. Despite uncertainties created by
its new moving export levy system, Russia agribulk shipments are
expected to witness an annual increase as harvest starts in
addition to larger carryover stocks (12mt versus last year's 7mt,
according to the USDA).
Black Sea agribulk shipments for 3Q21 and full 2021 are forecast
at 29.5mt (up 7 percent y/y) and 102mt (at almost previous year
levels). Agribulk shipments from Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and
Bulgaria during 3Q21 and full 2021 are forecast at 11.1mt/46mt,
14.6mt/41mt, 2.8mt/12mt, and 1.0mt/3mt, respectively. In terms of
grades, for 3Q21 and 2021, total Black Sea exports of corn, wheat,
and barley forecast at 2.3mt/36mt, 21mt/55mt, and 4.2mt/9mt,
respectively.
