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Automotive Rapid Response Report: Semiconductor Supply for H1 2022

20 January 2022 Nigel Griffiths

Flash Risk Warning on Semiconductor Supply for H1 2022

The Risk in Outline: Will Omicron cut chip supply from the Philippines?

  • A vertical increase in COVID-19 cases in the Philippines in recent days poses the threat of government lockdowns that could temporally sever its important Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test facilities (OSAT) from the already stressed and fragile global supply chain.

  • In effect the Philippines could become a replay of the 'back-end' bottlenecks to semiconductor supply seen in Malaysia during Q3 2021 that had a significant impact on global Auto production.

  • Potential exposure is likely to be less than for Malaysia but is still estimated at up to maximum of 1.4m units of lost vehicle output within the next six months if full manufacturing lockdowns were to be enforced.

  • Philippines Government has enacted several COVID restrictions in recent days to control the climb of cases hoping to head off the need for these more stringent lockdowns. However, the extensive use of the Sinovac vaccination means that even two-dose vaccine efficacy against Omicron may be weak or uncertain so the risks of a hospitalisation surge could be high even with the reported milder symptoms of Omicron variant

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Posted 20 January 2022 by Nigel Griffiths, Director, Auto Vehicle Forecasting, S&P Global Mobility

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