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Global floating photovoltaic (FPV*) installations are forecast
to increase 143% from 2019 to reach over 900 MW in 2020 according
to IHS Markit's 'Floating PV Report - 2020'. The total installed
capacity at the end of 2019 was estimated to have reached 1.5 GW.
This was driven in recent years by a surge in the number of
floating PV systems installed globally in countries such as China,
South Korea, Japan, and the Netherlands. These countries have taken
a lead with developers installing large quantities of FPV to gain
an in-depth understanding of the technology as well as installing
pilots to test the capabilities and cost effectiveness of the
technology.
Floating PV represents a growing opportunity for developers to
install solar in countries that are land constrained, or in
specific locations that have favorable conditions such as water
bodies with proximity to existing grids, such as hydropower dams or
water treatment plants where they can use of existing
infrastructure to make floating PV more cost competitive. Offshore
installations at pilot stage are proving successful and are being
closely monitored as they increase in size. However, in some cases
floating PV will continue to be a relatively niche technology as
countries, and developers consider it a relatively expensive method
of installing solar compared to ground-mount solar on land and
roof-top solar especially with regard to stringent requirements of
anchoring, insurance, permits and water surface rights.
Figure 1: Global floating PV forecast
FPV installations continue to be get larger
New records continue to be broken as both suppliers and
developers increase their knowledge relating to the capabilities of
the FPV technology. Currently, China holds the record for the
largest floating PV installation of 150 MW in Anhui, but this is
set to be surpassed by a 180 MW installation in Taiwan due to be
completed in 2020/21 using both Sungrow and Ciel et Terre floats.
BayWa r.e. currently has the largest FPV project in Europe,
completed in the Netherlands, at 27.4 MW in size.
Technological enhancements of FPV are also assisting with FPV's
ability to improve its attractiveness in terms of economics and
site location. For example, the largest tracking floating PV (a
system with rotating floating PV islands that follow the sun during
the day) installation is being installed in the North Netherlands
which will be just below 23 MW in size. Also, offshore floating PV
pilots have been installed in the Dutch North Sea and are being
installed in the United Arab Emirates.
China remains largest FPV market to date
China maintained its ranking as the largest market for floating
PV for the third year in a row in 2019. Its rate of installations
declined in 2019 compared to record installations in 2018 owing to
the general decline of the Chinese PV market following policy
support uncertainty in 2019 and removal of top-runner policy which
helped incentivize usage of high-end technology. However overall,
China's installed floating PV base is estimated to be double the
next largest eleven countries in terms of installed base greater
than 5 MW. China continues to install large amounts of solar
on/over water but many of these installations are located on piles
and not floating mounts and as such not considered floating PV.
Emerging opportunities in Asia - India, South Korea and
Vietnam
IHS Markit expects Asia to account for over 70 percent of total
floating PV installations in the next five years. The top-three
markets are expected to be India, South Korea and Vietnam which
will account for over half of total installations if development
and completion continues as planned. IHS Markit is tracking over
300 floating PV projects globally in its 'Solar deal tracker' from
early stage development to under construction that plan to be
installed in the next five years, and of which are heavily
concentrated in Asia. Tenders and auctions are expected to be the
main drivers to help the adoption of floating PV in many of the
Asian markets and the fallout from the impact from Covid-19 may
dampen the rate of installation of floating PV in these
markets.
Outside of Asia, key markets will be the Netherlands in Europe
owing to its aggressive target for floating PV due to having an
abundance of shallow inland water and its support via the SDE+
subsidy scheme. Brazil is expected to be the biggest market for
floating PV in the Americas due to its siting of floating PV on
hydropower plant sites.
Sungrow and Ciel et Terre remain the top-two
manufacturers of floating structures
Both Ciel et Terre and Sungrow continue to dominate the global
market of floating PV mounting suppliers with both suppliers
accounting for 70 percent of the total completed or under
construction installations. Sungrow continues to have the largest
installed base due to its large market share in China and in other
Asian markets but Ciel et Terre has the widest global footprint of
all floating PV mount suppliers globally. Many of the other
floating PV mount suppliers are headquartered in early growth
floating PV markets such as China, Japan and South Korea.
Floating PV outlook is upwards
Floating PV installations are expected to grow strongly in the
coming years due to an increasing pipeline of global projects. Many
of the largest planned installations are facing delays with
tenders, site challenges, and financing, but expectations are high
for record-breaking floating PV systems to begin construction
shortly. Floating PV may not be the cheapest method of installing
solar, however, its benefits can outweigh the challenges. In many
countries, particularly densely populated areas, there is an
appetite to utilize this technology especially where sites are
close to grid connection points, making projects economically
viable, and weather patterns are manageable. Disused mining sites,
hydropower plants, shallow inland waterways, and man-made
reservoirs, are among the many locations to be considered
attractive, while offshore floating solar is tested and evaluated
further.
*Floating PV is defined as being
mounted on buoyant platforms, or membranes, on a body of water. It
is not fixed on piles or bridges.
Figure 2: Top-ten floating PV markets from 2020-24
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Posted 28 May 2020 by Cormac Gilligan, Associate Director, Solar & Energy Storage, IHS Markit
