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Senegalese newspaper Libération reported on 8 February that four
suspected affiliates of the Mali-based Katiba Macina jihadist group
were arrested in the border town of Kidira in the Tambacounda
region between 20 and 23 January. Separately, a UN Security Council
report published on 3 February asserted that elements of the
al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM)
umbrella group - to which Katiba Macina belongs - supported by
"radical Islamist influencers" had encroached into several parts of
north-eastern, eastern, and central Senegal.
The arrests, combined with the UN findings, indicate
that Katiba Macina has infiltrated members into Senegal to support
future operations. Although there has been no official
confirmation of the Libération report, Senegal's
vulnerability has increased significantly following the
consolidation of Katiba Macina's presence in western Mali through
local recruitment and preaching. The number of jihadist attacks has
been increasing in the vicinity of the regional capital Kayes,
which is less than 100 km from the Senegalese border, and France
added Kayes to its "red zone" in August 2020, which advises against
travel there.
The four suspects arrested in Kidira, two of whom are reportedly
traders based in the town, have been transferred to Dakar and a
judicial investigation has been opened into alleged acts of
supporting terrorism and criminal association. Local media reported
that phones had been seized containing contacts and a video footage
suggestive of jihadist connections.
Dakar remains an aspirational target as JNIM adopts a
more expansive operational outlook into coastal West African
countries and consolidates its presence in border areas.
The head of France's external intelligence agency issued a rare
public statement on 1 February warning that JNIM is seeking to
expand beyond its bases in Mali and Burkina Faso into coastal
countries, and had a presence already in Côte d'Ivoire and Benin.
Senegal has also been a long-standing al-Qaeda target, in part
owing to its strong relationship with France and the widespread
presence of foreign commercial interests, as well as its
contribution to the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated
Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) peacekeeping mission in
Mali.
In November 2018, JNIM released a video in which Katiba Macina
leader Amadou Koufa called on members of the Peul ethnic group in
countries across West Africa, including Senegal, to join the
jihadist cause. The February UN report states that JNIM elements
have established themselves along the road between Kayes and
Kaffrine in central Senegal, as well as in Bakel, the Ferlo
reserve, and the Saraya gold mining area. In December 2020, dozens
of foreign nationals, mostly from Burkina Faso and Mali, were
arrested for illegal mining activities in Saraya. As evidenced
elsewhere in the Sahel, Katiba Macina is highly likely to
infiltrate artisanal gold mining operations, eventually increasing
the risk of kidnapping to Western nationals in the nearby tourist
hub of Kédougou when travel resumes. Although a large-scale attack
in Dakar is less likely in the immediate outlook, the already high
risk of an improvised explosive device (IED) attack accompanied by
gunmen targeting large hotels and government buildings is
increasing.
A robust Senegalese military response, backed by France
and the United States, decreases the likelihood of JNIM gaining
traction in regions closer to Dakar. Senegal has responded
to the increasing threat in the east of the country since mid-2020
by deploying additional troops to Ourossogui (Matam region) and
Kedougou (Bassari). A new military camp is also under construction
at Goudiry (Tambacounda region), while joint training exercises
have been conducted by the army, police, and the paramilitary water
and forest authority in the eastern Military Zone 4. New military
camps have also been opened in Fatick and Louga. These
reinforcements are likely to be further strengthened by support
from France and the US, both of which have a military presence in
the country. In May 2016, Senegal signed a defence co-operation
agreement with the US, enabling the deployment of US troops in the
event of an emergency. However, military reinforcements will do
little to reduce the likelihood of Islamist recruitment of
disenfranchised populations in poor eastern and southeastern
regions in the absence of improved social services and
infrastructure, including road rehabilitation and water
provision.
Posted 24 February 2021 by Martin Roberts, Principal Analyst, Deputy Head - Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence