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On 13 April, the opposition staged another rally demanding the
resignation of Prime Minister Edi Rama and his ruling Socialist
Party (Partia Socialiste: PS). A group of protesters threw stones
and improvised smoke bombs at the police, who responded with tear
gas and water cannons. Five police officers were reportedly
injured, and several protesters apprehended.
Protests began in December 2018 as a student movement against
rising tuition fees; however, they soon attracted a range of causes
and have since been overtaken by the more established opposition,
namely the Democratic Party (PD - Partia Demokratike) and the
Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI - Lëvizja Socialiste për
Integrim). In February, opposition party MPs started boycotting
parliament; in March, they announced plans to also boycott upcoming
local elections on 30 June.
Significance
The opposition boycott is unlikely to impede the passage of
legislation. If MPs boycott parliament, Albania's closed list
system offers their seat to the individual next on the list.
Eighteen out of a total 58 opposition seats held by PD and LSI have
so far been filled due to poor party discipline. Moreover, the
opposition's boycott of municipal elections will likely be welcomed
by PS, granting it control over important centers such as Tirana,
where most of the economic activity is concentrated.
The ongoing protests have nevertheless still put pressure on
Prime Minister Edi Rama's government, and risk delaying the
reopening of Albania's EU accession talks. Such an outcome,
together with growing opposition pressure, will likely remove the
focus and incentive from the implementation of judicial reforms,
such as the depoliticization of judicial bodies and the procedure
through which judges are appointed.
Should rogue PD and LSI members continue to undermine the party
leadership's boycott, this would deprive the protest movement of
its momentum and weaken it considerably. Conversely, any protester
fatalities and high-profile incidents involving protesters breaking
through police cordons or forcibly entering government buildings,
would likely give the opposition momentum, and increase the
probability of Rama being forced to resign.
Posted 18 April 2019 by Dijedon Imeri, Senior Analyst, Country Risk, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit
