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Chinese exports of agri-food commodities amounted to
USD 64.83 billion in 2019. It increased by 85% in comparison to
2005. The share of China in global agri-food exports was equal to
4.1%
The volume of exports amounted to 45.13 million tons
and increased by 34% in comparison to 2005
Agri-food commodities are responsible for approx. 7% of
the total volume of Chinese exports and only 2.5% of their
value
IHS Markit predicts the total volume of exports of
animal products by China to increase by 3.6% in 2020 and 5.2% in
2021. The volume of exports of beverages and oils is forecasted to
increase by 4.3% in 2020 and 4.4% in 2021. For vegetables, the
volume is predicted to increase by 3.0% in 2020 and 5.8% in
2021
Top destinations for Chinese exports of animal products
(real value in USD) include Japan, the United States, Hong Kong,
South Korea, and Germany
Top destinations for Chinese exports of beverages and
oils are located mostly in East Asia and include Hong Kong SAR,
North Korea, Malaysia & South Korea. The fifth in the ranking
is the Netherlands
Top destinations for Chinese exports of vegetables
products (the most important group in the terms of real value)
include Japan, Vietnam, Hong Kong SAR, United States, South
Korea
Background information
China with the population of 1,439,323,776 is the biggest
country of the world with a total share of 18.5%. Due to its size
China is the second largest importer of agri-food products after
the US. Its imports amounted to USD 142 billion in 2019 which was
responsible for 6.4% of global imports. At the same time China is
one of the main exporters of agri-food products. In 2019 China
(mainland) was the sixth largest exporter of agri-food commodities
after US, Brazil, the Netherlands, Germany and France. Its share in
the global exports of agri-food commodities was equal to 4.1%. In
the present article we will focus on the Chinese exports.
Total volume and real value by commodity
group
Volume of trade of Chinese agri-food commodities is steadily
increasing. The total exports of animal products reached 6.69
million tons in 2019. It was 3.30 million tons for beverages and
oils and 35.1 million tons for vegetable products. In terms of
shares in total volume of exports it equaled 14.8, 7.3 and 77.9%
respectively. In total the volume reached 45.13 million tons in
2019. For comparison it was equal to 33.58 million tons in 2005 and
31.43 million tons in 2010. It represents an increase by roughly
one third.
In value terms (real value in USD) the exports of animal
products amounted to USD 23.971 billion in 2019, USD 2.916 billion
for beverages and oils and USD 37.95 billion for vegetable
products. The total value of agri-food exports by China equaled to
USD 64.83 billion. It increased by 85% in comparison in 2005.
Growth rates by commodity group
The CAGR for the volume of animal products in Chinese exports
over the period 2005-2019 was equal to 4.05 %. It was higher for
beverages and oils - 6.68% and lower for vegetable products -
1.53%. On average the volume increased by 2.13%.
IHS Markit predicts the total volume of exports of animal
products by China to increase by 3.6% in 2020 and 5.2% in 2021. The
volume of exports of beverages and oils is forecasted to increase
by 4.3% in 2020 and 4.4% in 2021. For vegetables the volume is
predicted to increase by 3.0% in 2020 and 5.8% in 2021.
The CAGR for the real value of animal products in Chinese
exports over the period 2005-2019 was equal to 5.2%. It was higher
for beverages and oils 7.4 % and lower for vegetable products 4.0%.
On average the real value of Chinese agri-food exports increased by
2.13%. It is worth to note that the average growth rates in exports
are higher in values than in volume.
IHS Markit predicts the real value of Chinese exports of animal
products to increase by 3.6% in 2020 and 5.2% in 2021. The real
value of Chinese exports of beverages is predicted to increase by
4.3% in 2020 and 4.4% in 2021 and of the vegetables to increase by
3.0% in 2020 and 5.8% in 2021 respectively. It is difficult to
assess the overall impact of the recent outbreak of COVID-19. This
will depend on its duration (whether it is going to extend well
into Q2 of 2020) and overall magnitude. The impact will, of course,
is adverse.
Share of agri-food products in Chinese
exports
Agri-food commodities are responsible for approx. 7% of the
total volume of Chinese exports and only 2.5% of their value. In
comparison to 2005, the shares have fallen for both the volume and
the real value. In the next two years, the share of the commodities
is the Chinses exports are predicted not to change
significantly.
Top commodities by product group in 2019
The Chinese exports of animal products are clearly dominated by
marine and aquatic products. The products with the highest shares
include fish and seafood, prepared or preserved (24.4 %), frozen
fish fillets and other fish meat (17.1%), frozen fish (11.0%) and
mollusks (10.0%).
In exports of beverages and oils, we can observe several
dominant product groups. The most important ones are water, mineral
and aerated water (34.9%) and animal and vegetable oils, excl.
soybean oil (28.4%). These are followed by spirits, liqueurs and
other spirituous beverages (11.5%), beer, cider, fermented
beverages (10.3%) and lastly soybean oil (8.0%).
In the group of vegetable commodities, the top product groups
include preparations of vegetables, fruit, nuts or other parts of
plants (14.0%), dried leguminous and other vegetables (10.4%) and
food preparations, yeasts, sauces, soups and extracts (8.6%).
Top destinations for Chinese exports of animal products (real
value in USD) include Japan, the United States, Hong Kong, South
Korea, and Germany. These top five countries had a cumulated share
of 62% with Japan alone responsible for one-fifth of total export
value (CR5 - concentration ratio - cumulated share of top five
destinations).
Top destinations for Chinese exports of beverages and oils are
located mostly in East Asia and include Hong Kong SAR, North Korea,
Malaysia & South Korea. The fifth in the ranking is the
Netherlands. The top five destinations had a share of 66.5% - even
higher than in the case of animal products.
Top destinations for Chinese exports of vegetable products (the
most important group in terms of real value) include Japan,
Vietnam, Hong Kong SAR, United States, South Korea. The CR5, in
this case, is significantly lower and reaches 44.8%.
This column is based on data from IHS Markit GTA Forecasting and
other resources from IHS Markit if not stated otherwise. 2020 and
2021 values are predictions.
Due to missing data and lack of forecasts the following
commodities have been excluded from the analysis: dairy produce;
birds' eggs; natural honey; edible products of animal origin,
n.e.s.; edible offal of bovine animals, swine, sheep, goats,
horses, etc., fresh or chilled; fish fillets and other fish meat
(whether or not minced), n.e.s., fresh, chilled or frozen and
beverages, spirits and vinegar, n.e.s.
Posted 25 February 2020 by Tomasz Brodzicki, Principal Economist, GTAS Forecasting, Maritime & Trade, IHS Markit
