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This is the last in a series a three reports examining key
conflicts in Africa in 2021. Previous reports have focused on
Ethiopia and the
Sahel.
The ongoing Islamist insurgency in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado
province is likely to expand territorially in 2021, throughout the
Cabo Delgado and Niassa provinces and to southern Tanzania, posing
kidnapping, death and injury, extorsion, looting and business
disruption risks to all sectors and cargo on land, and in
particular to oil and gas, mining, hotels, NGOs and the catholic
church, and security forces assets and staff. The likelihood of an
effective government response in the next 12 months is very
low.
Origins and expansion
In 2017, Tanzania cracked down on Jabha East Africa's jihadists
near Tanga who fled into DRC and Northern Mozambique, constituting
the roots of the insurgency which began in October 2017 with
attacks on several police barracks in the Cabo Delgado
province.
Throughout 2018, insurgents perpetuated attacks bearing the
techniques, tactics and procedures of Islamic State affiliated
groups, and reached villages located further south and west. They
published a manifesto in July 2020 with the stated aim of
establishing Sharia law.
In August 2020, the insurgents seized the Mocímboa da Praia
port, city and the surrounding roads and have since been expanding
this firm control southwards along towards Pemba and along the
northern border with Tanzania, by beheading and kidnapping
civilians by dozens.
They also started kidnapping and robbery at sea of small
passengers' boats and small vessels carrying supplies sailing off
the coast between Palma and Pemba. An uptake in maritime incidents
in November led the government to restrict sea traffic and, in late
December, to interrupt it, which prevented all commercial cargo to
circulate, among which some meant to supply the LNG construction
site.
On January 1, insurgents closed in on the areas surrounding the
LNG onshore construction site, reaching it gates, which prompted
Total to evacuate its staff and pause the project indefinitely.
This will likely cause delays to at least a year with delays beyond
that looking more and more likely.
Capabilities
Insurgents' capability on land and at sea remain limited. Their
rapid expansion has been due to the government's security forces
posing nearly no resistance, due to corruption, defections, lack of
training and competition between the FADM, the police and private
contractors. Insurgents have in addition secured a steady stream of
revenues thanks to a likely deal with pre-existing illegal traders
involved in heroin shipment.
Insurgents' lack of rapid boats, IEDs and long-range rockets,
precludes any attack on the LNG offshore facilities, aircrafts, and
commercial maritime cargo but their significant revenues make it
likely that, if left unhindered, they will progressively acquire
this technology from the second half of 2021.
Low likelihood of foreign military intervention with an
offensive mandate in 2021
A foreign military response would likely be the most effective
way of ending the insurgency. The Mozambican government has this
year reportedly discussed assistance with Tanzania, South Africa,
France, Portugal, the EU and the US. The US and France in
particular have discussed maritime agreements with Mozambique that
would allow them to patrol in the Mozambican channel, protecting
offshore facilities thereby effectively, in our view, deterring
attacks on these assets.
Posted 07 January 2021 by Eva Renon, Senior Country Risk Analyst, IHS Markit and
