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This is the first in a series of three reports examining key
conflicts in Africa in 2021. Subsequent reports will focus on
Mozambique and the Sahel
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed deployed Ethiopian National
Defence Force (ENDF) and allied regional (particularly Amhara)
troops to
Tigray region on 4 November, after forces aligned with the
region's governing party, the Tigray People's Liberation Front
(TPLF), attacked the ENDF's Northern Command base at Mekelle and
the military base in Dansha (near the Tigray-Amhara regional
border) on 3 November. The TPLF claims its attack was a pre-emptive
strike carried out in self-defence against massing ENDF-aligned
forces preparing for an attack against Tigray. The national
government and TPLF mutually severed contact in early October, with
the TPLF claiming the federal government's constitutional mandate
had expired.
Following the attack, the Ethiopian federal Council of Ministers
declared a six-month state of emergency in Tigray regional state.
During 16-28 November, ENDF-aligned forces established at least
nominal control of Tigray's main cities and large towns, including
regional capital Mekelle and the nearby Northern Command military
base. On 7 December Ahmed claimed that TPLF-aligned forces were not
capable of mounting an insurgency, however fighting with TPLF
forces has continued in several areas of Tigray, particularly west
of Mekelle, and near the cities of Aksum and Shire.
TPLF withdrawal
The capture of Mekelle and Tigray's other major settlements by
ENDF-aligned forces will likely lead to a reduction in heavy
weapons by both sides of the conflict. TPLF-aligned forces largely
withdrew from Mekelle rather than attempt to hold it against the
final ENDF offensive, a move that likely significantly limited the
scope of property destruction and civilian casualties in the
city.
TTPLF likely withdrew with its weaponry and leadership largely
intact, indicating that sporadic use of heavy weaponry
(particularly artillery and long-range rockets) by its forces will
continue during December, before gradual loss of remaining
territory and supplies makes this less viable. Airports in Tigray
and northern Amhara, and to a lesser extent northern Afar, that are
being used for ENDF troop movements or airstrikes into Tigray are
particularly likely to be targeted by TPLF rocket attacks, as are
ENDF-controlled military bases. Federal control will likely
continue in major towns and key inter-city highways, such as the A2
and B30, during daylight hours.
Insurgency strategy
The TPLF is likely to retreat to strongholds in mountainous
northern Tigray and deploy insurgency tactics, especially around
Aksum-Adigrat and, to a lesser extent, around Raya in southern
Tigray. Smaller towns and major highways, particularly in rural
areas, will likely be subject to small-arms and improvised
explosive device (IED) attacks targeting federal forces and
non-Tigrayan road travellers.
TPLF-aligned fighters will also likely launch night-time attacks
in Shire, Wukro, Axum, Adigrat, and Mekelle to undermine government
control. Other tactics by TPLF elements will probably include road
ambushes and IED attacks targeting Tigray transitional government
officials and Tigrayans and militias loyal to the central
government. There will be a high risk of collateral damage and
targeted attacks against commercial assets such as mines guarded by
ENDF-aligned forces and perceived to be contributing to the federal
government's revenues, particularly if ownership of them was taken
over by perceived pro-government entities or individuals. Efforts
by Amhara militias to forcibly incorporate disputed areas
(particularly Tsgegede Wolkait, Tselemti, Alamata, and Raya Azebo
districts) of Tigray into Amhara region will likely further drive
Tigrayan support for an anti-government insurgency. Insurgents are
also likely to base themselves in Tigrayan refugee camps in eastern
Sudan, raiding into western Tigray and northwestern Amhara region,
including along the Metema-Gondar road.
Posted 11 December 2020 by Jordan Anderson, Senior Analyst, IHS Markit