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Mohammad Hanif Atmar, a leading Afghan presidential election
candidate and former national security advisor, has warned that
President Ashraf Ghani and his National Unity Government (NUG)
would lack legitimacy after their mandates expired on 22 May. His
statement comes after the Independent Election Commission (IEC)
announced on 20 March that the 2019 presidential election would be
postponed to 28 September from 20 July - the second time that it
has been delayed. Atmar also called for the formation of an interim
government ahead of 22 May to avoid constitutional uncertainty from
a continued Ghani presidency.
Significance
Atmar's warning indicates that momentum for the formation of an
interim government is growing in Afghanistan, not least because of
the Taliban's continued unwillingness to engage directly with the
Ghani administration as part of the former's ongoing negotiations
with the US government. However, the Taliban has signaled an
openness to negotiate with or even form part of an interim
government. The group also attended a summit with Afghan opposition
leaders, including Atmar, in Russia in February 2019, and a
follow-up meeting in Qatar is scheduled for April 2019. Ghani,
however, is likely to resist calls for an interim government,
increasing the likelihood of Atmar and other opposition leaders
calling for protests against the Ghani administration. Protests
would be likely primarily in Kabul, as well as in Afghanistan's
northern provinces - most notably Badghis, Baghlan, Balkh, Faryab,
and Sar-e-Pul - where Atmar's political support is strongest. They
are likely to take place around government property, including at
local IEC offices, and will entail a high risk of violence,
including exchanges of small-arms fire with security forces and
rival supporters. Widespread protests would isolate the Ghani
administration and increase pressure on the US government, which is
the Afghan administration's primary financial supporter, to support
calls for an interim government. Ghani's relations with the US
government have deteriorated since his current national security
adviser Hamdullah Mohib criticised the chief US negotiator, Zalmay
Khalilzad. Mohib remaining in office would be a likely trigger for
the US to abandon Ghani and support the formation of an interim
government. If formed, an interim government would increase the
likelihood of a ceasefire agreement in Afghanistan.