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A strong headline PMI reading masked just how tough business
conditions are for manufacturers at the moment. Although demand
remains strong, as witnessed by a further solid improvement in new
order inflows, supply chains continue to deteriorate at a worrying
rate. Shortages of inputs have restricted production growth so far
in the fourth quarter to the weakest seen over the past year and a
half.
At first glance, manufacturers in the eurozone had a bumper
month in November. The IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
increased from 58.3 in October to 58.4, marking the first rise in
the headline index since June. The latest reading was not only far
above the 50.0 no change level, but also almost seven points higher
than the survey's per-pandemic long-run average of 51.7
However, the details behind the headline PMI tell a far more
worrying picture.
Although demand remained strong, as witnessed by a further solid
improvement in new order inflows during November, supply chains
continued to deteriorate at a worrying rate. Supply delays spiked
to a record high in May 2021 and have since continued to
deteriorate at rates surpassing anything ever seen prior to the
pandemic.
These shortages of inputs have restricted production growth so
far in the fourth quarter to the weakest seen over the past year
and a half. At 53.5, the average output index reading for far in
the fourth quarter is only slightly above the pre-pandemic long-run
average of 52.9.
A record rise in inventories meanwhile reflected increased
efforts by manufacturers to build safety stocks, in turn driven by
fears of ongoing shortages of inputs in coming months.
The interplay of these PMI survey measures of output, new
orders, suppliers' delivery times and inventories are illustrated
in chart 1 below. Note that all of these variables, plus
employment, are components used in the calculation of the headline
PMI.
Chart 1: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and its five
components
The lengthening of supplier lead-times - normally considered a
positive development associated with improving demand in the
manufacturing economy (but at present reflecting the pandemic
supply shock) - can clearly be seen to have boosted the headline
PMI well above the output index, the latter trailing new orders
growth in recent months.
As chart 2 showed more clearly, this 'overstatement' of
manufacturing production growth by the headline PMI relative to the
survey's actual output index since the summer months is evident not
just for the eurozone, but is especially visible for France and
Germany.
In France, for example, production stalled in November having
fallen in October, contrasting with headline PMI readings well
above the 50.0 no-change level.
In Germany, production growth likewise has more or less stalled
so far in the fourth quarter, contrasting with the stronger (albeit
moderating) headline PMI.
Chart 2: Diverging manufacturing PMI and output
indices
Because the survey's output index is a pure measure of
production growth while the headline PMI was designed as a broader
barometer of the overall 'health' of the manufacturing economy, the
output index exhibits a higher correlation with official
manufacturing production data than the headline PMI (see chart
3).
It is the constriction of output relative to new orders which
also helps to explain why price pressures are currently so strong.
With demand once again outstripping supply, the November PMI survey
saw a continuing sellers' market, pushing prices charged for
manufactured goods higher and at a rate surpassing anything
previously recorded in almost two decades. Higher factory gate
prices also suggest consumer inflation has further to rise.
As long as output continues to lag new orders, prices will have
a tendency to rise. Only by watching the PMI sub-indices will these
inflationary signals be observed.
Chart 3: Eurozone manufacturing PMI output index vs.
official production growth
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist, IHS
Markit
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
