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2022 US crop acreage forecast

28 January 2022 Mindy McMurtry

IHS Markit has updated 2022 US acreage prospects based on its survey collected in early January. This is the second IHS Markit survey of US corn, soybean, and cotton acreage for the 2022 season and its first for minor feed grains, spring wheats, rice, and sunflowers.

USDA's Agricultural Statistics Board will release its Prospective Plantings report on March 31. IHS Markit will resurvey for 2022 acreage ahead of USDA's March report and update planting prospects accordingly. This report uses the estimates published in USDA's Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report for 2022 US winter wheat area.

We have lowered our total acreage expectation for 2022 based on USDA's adjustments to 2021 acreage so we are assuming fewer acres than our previous projection for several of the crops with the largest adjustments being in soybean, spring wheat, and rice acres based on survey indications.

  • Total plantings are projected to increase slightly from last year as the price environment remains favorable; however, we have lowered our expectations for 2022 total planted acreage based on a lower 2021 total acreage estimate from USDA than what we had been assuming.
  • The changes to 2022 US acreage prospects are based on IHS Markit's proprietary survey which was conducted in early January 2022.
  • Prices are favorable for many of the key crops; however, input costs are expected to affect some planting decisions. Survey responses indicated higher soybean and cotton acreage and lower corn and rice acreage versus last year. Spring wheat area is expected to be up from last year, but prices have not performed as well as other crops since our last acreage report, and survey responses appeared to reflect that fact.

Percentage change in planted area 2022

Figure 1: Percentage change in planted area 2022 and 2021

Learn more about our agribusiness solutions.

Ask Mindy a question about the crop forecast.

Posted 28 January 2022 by Mindy McMurtry, Senior Analyst, Refining Chemicals and Resources Solutions, S&P Global Commodity Insights



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