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IHS Markit has updated 2022 US acreage prospects based on its
survey collected in early January. This is the second IHS Markit
survey of US corn, soybean, and cotton acreage for the 2022 season
and its first for minor feed grains, spring wheats, rice, and
sunflowers.
USDA's Agricultural Statistics Board will release its
Prospective Plantings report on March 31. IHS Markit will resurvey
for 2022 acreage ahead of USDA's March report and update planting
prospects accordingly. This report uses the estimates published in
USDA's Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report for 2022 US winter
wheat area.
We have lowered our total acreage expectation for 2022 based on
USDA's adjustments to 2021 acreage so we are assuming fewer acres
than our previous projection for several of the crops with the
largest adjustments being in soybean, spring wheat, and rice acres
based on survey indications.
Total plantings are projected to increase slightly from last
year as the price environment remains favorable; however, we have
lowered our expectations for 2022 total planted acreage based on a
lower 2021 total acreage estimate from USDA than what we had been
assuming.
The changes to 2022 US acreage prospects are based on IHS
Markit's proprietary survey which was conducted in early January
2022.
Prices are favorable for many of the key crops; however, input
costs are expected to affect some planting decisions. Survey
responses indicated higher soybean and cotton acreage and lower
corn and rice acreage versus last year. Spring wheat area is
expected to be up from last year, but prices have not performed as
well as other crops since our last acreage report, and survey
responses appeared to reflect that fact.
Figure 1: Percentage change in planted area 2022 and
2021