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2021 global automotive dividend outlook

15 April 2021 Ralph Chen Stella Lim

• Automotive sector dividend will decline 16% in fiscal year (FY) 2020, then rebound 29% in FY 2021, driven by the strong recovery of dividends from manufacturers

• The aftermarket and service sector has demonstrated greater resilience in payouts as compared with manufacturers (OEMs) and suppliers

• Automotive players from Japan should be the biggest contributor in FY 2020 and maintain the lead in FY 2021, accounting for around 32% of global payouts

• The shortage of semiconductors has emerged as the biggest bottleneck of recovery

The pandemic inflicted damage on the global economy in 2020 and brought severe disruptions to the production of automobiles and associated supplies. The adverse impacts also trickled down to companies' financials and their capabilities to hand out dividends. IHS Markit data show the aggregate dividend should decline 16% to USD35.4 billion in 2020. Notably, the top 5 automobile dividend-paying markets' payout trend largely resembles that of GDP movement.

With the aim of bringing clarity in our analysis from the dividend perspective, we identified 156 stocks in the automotive industry across three regions—the Americas (AMER), Europe and the Middle East (EMEA), and Asia Pacific (APAC)—and offer our perspective on the impact of COVID-19 on the path of dividend payouts in 2021. This report focuses on the passenger car manufacturers and excludes manufacturers for motor bikes and specialty vehicles as well as their associated suppliers. This report categorizes the sector-level analysis into three components along the industry value chain: suppliers, manufacturers (OEMs), and aftermarket services.

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