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US lower-48 modeled October dry natural gas production averages
approximately 92.9 Bcf/d, 0.4 Bcf/d higher than our third quarter
2021 forecast of 92.5 Bcf/d, according to the latest PointLogic
data. Onshore volumes came in higher by about 0.9 Bcf/d than what
we projected earlier. Gulf of Mexico volumes are estimated to be
down by 0.3 Bcf/d in August, 0.8 Bcf/d in September 2021, and 0.5
Bcf/d in October owing to Hurricane Ida shut ins. Gulf of Mexico
dry gas production has been recovering since October, and we expect
it to return to pre-hurricane levels by November 2021.
Rig data. September 2021 rig actuals came in at 560 rigs,
aligning to what we projected last quarter. The total lower-48
onshore rig count is expected to grow to average 506 rigs in 2021
and 780 rigs in 2022. Actual gas rigs in the Appalachia and
Haynesville together came in 15% lower than what we projected,
while private operators added rigs in the smaller, oilier
plays.
Well completions. Total well completions for 2021 are revised
upward from 11,300 wells to about 12,500 wells, as we expect some
leakage of cash flows to well completions with WTI prices that are
higher than previously projected. Well additions for 2022 are also
revised up from 14,800 wells to 15,500 wells.
Drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells. As the pace of completions
are higher than drilling in 2021, we expect DUC wells as a
significant contributor to 2021 volumes (less than one-third) but
hold less than a 5% share by the end of 2022. The year-end 2022 DUC
share of well completions fell from 10% in the previous iteration
to 5% as some of those DUCs are brought to production in 2021. The
net oil and gas DUC wells available in the major plays by mid-2021
were about 5,600, of which dry gas DUC wells account for only
15%.
Posted 24 November 2021 by Raoul LeBlanc, Vice President, Energy, IHS Markit and
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