Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
The 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games began officially in Tokyo
on 23 July after being delayed from last year due to the COVID-19
pandemic. The event will be held without international or domestic
spectators, and with Tokyo under a state of emergency restrictions
for the duration of the Olympics. Commercial, dining and
entertainment facilities in Tokyo are operating under reduced
operating hours, alcohol sales are restricted, and attendance at
large events are capped.
The Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games are taking place
despite low levels of public support and rising COVID-19 cases in
Tokyo.
Public support for the Games to go ahead has been consistently
low, reflecting concerns about holding the event while the pandemic
is ongoing. COVID-19 cases in Tokyo have been increasing from
around 20 new cases of infection per 100,000 people in the week
ending 23 June to 30 new infections in the week ending 7 July,
according to Japan's National Institute of Infectious Diseases
(NIID). NIID experts also estimated on 7 July that the Delta
variant accounted for 34% of all infections in Tokyo and its
surrounding prefectures. According to an Asahi news poll published
on 19 July, 55% of respondents were opposed to the Tokyo Games
going ahead compared to 33% in favour, and 68% were doubtful Games
could be held safely. A number of athletes have also announced they
would not attend the Games due to COVID-19. Anti-Olympic protests
have occurred frequently in central Tokyo, and while most have
consisted of several dozens of participants, over 100 people
gathered in Shinjuku Ward on 23 June to call for the Games to be
cancelled. Asked on 21 July if the Games might still be cancelled,
the head of the Tokyo 2020 organising committee, Toshiro Muto, did
not rule it out, unlike International Olympic Committee (IOC)
president Thomas Bach, who on the same day said the cancellation
was "never an option". While the government is unlikely to support
a cancellation at this late stage, some sporting events might still
be cancelled or delayed due to participants having to self-isolate
after becoming infected with COVID-19 or coming into close contact
with a confirmed case.
The Tokyo Games are closely tied to lower house and
party leadership elections due later this year.
Despite public opposition, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has
consistently maintained that the Tokyo Games would take place. Suga
and the wider Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) appear to have taken
the view that hosting the Olympic and Paralympic Games - branded
the "Recovery and Reconstruction Games" after the Fukushima nuclear
disaster in 2011 and now the COVID-19 pandemic - as central to the
party's continued dominance in the lower house. The Games and
decision-making over whether or not they should go ahead are
therefore closely tied to upcoming elections in Japan: a lower
house election is due by 22 October and LDP leadership elections
are also due in September. While prospects for the LDP and its
coalition partner Komeito (KP) to win a majority in the lower house
vote are still strong, it is much less certain whether Suga will
continue as LDP President and for how long. Suga's prospects depend
on the LDP's performance in the lower house vote. Should the LDP
perform well in the lower house election - through a strong
majority or supermajority victory with KP - then Suga is unlikely
to face a significant challenge from his party. Conversely, should
the LDP perform poorly, then this would increase the likelihood of
Suga resigning.
The decision to hold the Tokyo Games is a high-risk
gamble for Japan's prime minister and the LDP given vaccine supply
issues.
The vaccine rollout in Japan took off to a very slow start
compared with other OECD countries.
After accelerating in May and June following vaccine shipments
and increased involvement from the national government in
distribution, the rollout began to slow in July due to supply
shortages. While the Japanese government and Tokyo Games organisers
have implemented strict regulations for the event, including
regular COVID-19 testing and isolation, COVID-19 infections are
increasing within the Olympic bubble. As of 21 July, more than 70
people associated with the event had tested positive for COVID-19.
With just 23% of the population fully vaccinated as of 19 July,
failure to contain a COVID-19 outbreak in the Olympic bubble would
damage public support for the governing party, particularly if the
Games are directly linked to surges of the virus in the general
population.
Posted 23 July 2021 by Hannah Cotillon, Senior Analyst, Asia-Pacific Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
Mainland China's zero-Covid policy is increasingly unsuitable to contain the newer, more infectious #COVID variants… https://t.co/jNU3J4TvmN
Jul 01
{"items" : [
{"name":"share","enabled":true,"desc":"<strong>Share</strong>","mobdesc":"Share","options":[ {"name":"facebook","url":"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2f2020-tokyo-olympic-and-paralympic-games-in-japan.html","enabled":true},{"name":"twitter","url":"https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2f2020-tokyo-olympic-and-paralympic-games-in-japan.html&text=The+2020+Tokyo+Olympic+and+Paralympic+Games+in+Japan+%7c+IHS+Markit+","enabled":true},{"name":"linkedin","url":"https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2f2020-tokyo-olympic-and-paralympic-games-in-japan.html","enabled":true},{"name":"email","url":"?subject=The 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games in Japan | IHS Markit &body=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2f2020-tokyo-olympic-and-paralympic-games-in-japan.html","enabled":true},{"name":"whatsapp","url":"https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=The+2020+Tokyo+Olympic+and+Paralympic+Games+in+Japan+%7c+IHS+Markit+ http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2f2020-tokyo-olympic-and-paralympic-games-in-japan.html","enabled":true}]}, {"name":"rtt","enabled":true,"mobdesc":"Top"}
]}