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US Economic Service: Short-, mid- and long-term forecasts

Access the most detailed, commercially-available macroeconomic outlook of the US economy. Now powered by Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit, this service provides the immediate-to-long-term US economic forecast – organized to help government agencies, corporations and financial institutions make smart investment and management decisions.

Subscribers receive short-, mid- and long-term US economic outlooks, including alternate scenarios, risk analysis and comprehensive sector outlooks. Underpinning each of our forecasts, the US Macro Model includes up to 2,000 variables and more than 1,500 equations that track virtually every economic activity. From one-page executive summaries for the CEO to data modeling tools for the business analyst, the US Economic Service provides real value across the organization.

Key benefits:

  • Identify growth markets and key product drivers
  • Compare sales and market projections
  • Assess business impact of policy shifts
  • Factor uncertainty into strategic plans
  • Maximize return on investment

What's included

Data and forecasts

Short- and long-term US economic growth projections

Find forecasts that you can trust and justify to senior management. Identify risks to prepare strategic plans for a range of alternative outcomes. Size markets and set sales, revenue and growth targets using accurate benchmarks.

Short-, mid-, and long-term updated forecasts for 2,000+ concepts with access to forecast database.

Forecasts include:

  • GDP expenditure, volume and price components
  • Detailed consumer spending and prices
  • Detailed personal income
  • Business investment (equipment, software, structures) by sector
  • Inventory accumulation by sector
  • Housing and construction
  • Government spending (federal, state, and local)
  • Exports and imports
  • Prices and wages
  • Financial market indicators
  • Energy prices, production and usage
  • Industrial production by sector
  • Balance of payments by major category, international investment position
  • Employment by sector
  • GDP, GNP, national income and its distribution
  • Corporate profits
  • Household wealth, debt and financial obligations
  • Federal, state and local budget balances
  • Motor vehicle sales
  • Productivity and labor costs


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Forecast to 2023 Q1 for major GDP components


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US consumer spending forecast to 2023 Q1

Financial Sector-Focused Forecast

Get impartial advice on future financial conditions with the near-term outlook for the economic concepts tracked by financial institutions or chief financial officers.

Financial Sector-Focused Forecast Coverage

  • Federal Reserve policy
  • Economic and inflation trends
  • Equity and credit markets
  • Deposit institutions
  • Treasury yield curves
  • Money, capital markets, mortgage and consumer rates
  • Cost of funds
  • Household, business and government balance sheets


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Financial sector-focused forecast samples

US Macro Model

Underpinning each of our forecasts, the US Macro Model is a large-scale, structural econometric model that is grounded in mainstream economic theory – estimated by modern econometric techniques that afford users considerable flexibility.

Analysis

Daily commentary

Find insightful analysis of breaking economic, political and financial developments, including implications of key US economic data releases. Set email alerts to receive specific data releases of interest to you.

Categories include:

  • Financial conditions
  • Inflation
  • Consumer markets
  • Employment
  • Housing markets
  • International trade
  • Business investment and production
  • Fiscal policy

Weekly economic commentary

Receive a comprehensive guide to understanding the previous week’s data and understand how the coming week’s data might affect the forecast and markets.

Monthly reports

Explore popular topics:

  • Summaries of high frequency data releases and updates that indicate how the economy could evolve over the short-mid term
  • Reviews of short-term changes that will influence the business environment
  • Examination of the overall economic direction, with historical and forecast data for key US economic indicators
  • Alternative scenarios that examine risks – upside and downside
  • Summaries and analysis for the outlook by sector, including key drivers and issues to watch
  • Short-term interest rate forecasts, with high/low scenarios and a credit review

US GDP Tracking 

Our award-winning US GDP tracking is a real-time forecast of real GDP growth in the current quarter and is updated following nearly every major data release.  At the core of our tracker is a small-scale reproduction of the process by which BEA translates monthly government statistics into official estimates of GDP.  In addition, to expert judgment developed over the last two decades, we employ a suite of proprietary time-series econometric models to guide our assumptions for values of the source data prior to their publication.  As the source data are reported, we replace our assumptions with these data and update our GDP tracking.  

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) coverage

Receive timely summaries detailing our view of the underlying motivations behind the current stance of Federal Reserve policy, the forces shaping decisions, plus our expectations for prospective Fed policy – following each of the eight FOMC meetings.

US Monthly GDP (MGDP) Index

Gain an analytically rigorous understanding of how each release will change the official GDP estimate – far ahead of the government release. We use our US Macro forecasting econometric model, newly released data and revisions, economic judgment, and methods designed to mimic the Bureau of Economic Analysis' data-generation process.

Alternative US and Global Scenarios

Examine scenarios that allow you or your clients to explore the effects of different potential policy outcomes or focus on different assumptions about key data, such as housing or the path of oil prices.

Connect®

Maximize your subscription content with Connect – our state-of-the-art business intelligence platform

  • Real-time reporting: Read updated analysis and commentary as data releases and events warrant
  • Email alerts: Set up notifications for updates to categories of interest
  • Rapid data retrieval: Access analysis and data in a single search or via interactive maps
  • Formatting/presentation tools: Format data by relevant indices and build customizable, presentation-ready graphs
  • Flexible export: Export all forecast tables in multiple formats (Excel, PDF, PowerPoint)
  • Automated content refreshes: Save searches and update content automatically
  • Scenario analysis: Develop your own scenarios with user-friendly tools
Member privileges
  • Analyst access: Connect directly with our award-winning team of 150 full-time economists
  • Webcasts: Email invitations to our US economic-focused webcasts and FOMC meeting reviews, with on-demand availability to listen at your convenience.

Events

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IHS Markit Event 25 September 2018

Pricing & Purchasing Regional Seminar: Chicago

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