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US Economic Service: Short-, mid- and long-term forecasts

Access the most detailed, commercially-available macroeconomic outlook of the US economy. Now powered by Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit, this service provides the immediate-to-long-term US economic forecast – organized to help government agencies, corporations and financial institutions make smart investment and management decisions.

Subscribers receive short-, mid- and long-term US economic outlooks, including alternate scenarios, risk analysis and comprehensive sector outlooks. Underpinning each of our forecasts, the US Macro Model includes up to 2,000 variables and more than 1,500 equations that track virtually every economic activity. From one-page executive summaries for the CEO to data modeling tools for the business analyst, the US Economic Service provides real value across the organization.

Key benefits:

  • Identify growth markets and key product drivers
  • Compare sales and market projections
  • Assess business impact of policy shifts
  • Factor uncertainty into strategic plans
  • Maximize return on investment

What's included

Data and forecasts

Short- and long-term US economic growth projections

Find forecasts that you can trust and justify to senior management. Identify risks to prepare strategic plans for a range of alternative outcomes. Size markets and set sales, revenue and growth targets using accurate benchmarks.

Short-, mid-, and long-term updated forecasts for 2,000+ concepts with access to forecast database.

Forecasts include:

  • GDP expenditure, volume and price components
  • Detailed consumer spending and prices
  • Detailed personal income
  • Business investment (equipment, software, structures) by sector
  • Inventory accumulation by sector
  • Housing and construction
  • Government spending (federal, state, and local)
  • Exports and imports
  • Prices and wages
  • Financial market indicators
  • Energy prices, production and usage
  • Industrial production by sector
  • Balance of payments by major category, international investment position
  • Employment by sector
  • GDP, GNP, national income and its distribution
  • Corporate profits
  • Household wealth, debt and financial obligations
  • Federal, state and local budget balances
  • Motor vehicle sales
  • Productivity and labor costs


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Forecast to 2023 Q1 for major GDP components


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US consumer spending forecast to 2023 Q1

Financial Sector-Focused Forecast

Get impartial advice on future financial conditions with the near-term outlook for the economic concepts tracked by financial institutions or chief financial officers.

Financial Sector-Focused Forecast Coverage

  • Federal Reserve policy
  • Economic and inflation trends
  • Equity and credit markets
  • Deposit institutions
  • Treasury yield curves
  • Money, capital markets, mortgage and consumer rates
  • Cost of funds
  • Household, business and government balance sheets


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Financial sector-focused forecast samples

US Macro Model

Underpinning each of our forecasts, the US Macro Model is a large-scale, structural econometric model that is grounded in mainstream economic theory – estimated by modern econometric techniques that afford users considerable flexibility.

Analysis

Daily commentary

Find insightful analysis of breaking economic, political and financial developments, including implications of key US economic data releases. Set email alerts to receive specific data releases of interest to you.

Categories include:

  • Financial conditions
  • Inflation
  • Consumer markets
  • Employment
  • Housing markets
  • International trade
  • Business investment and production
  • Fiscal policy

Weekly economic commentary

Receive a comprehensive guide to understanding the previous week’s data and understand how the coming week’s data might affect the forecast and markets.

Monthly reports

Explore popular topics:

  • Summaries of high frequency data releases and updates that indicate how the economy could evolve over the short-mid term
  • Reviews of short-term changes that will influence the business environment
  • Examination of the overall economic direction, with historical and forecast data for key US economic indicators
  • Alternative scenarios that examine risks – upside and downside
  • Summaries and analysis for the outlook by sector, including key drivers and issues to watch
  • Short-term interest rate forecasts, with high/low scenarios and a credit review

US GDP Tracking 

Our award-winning US GDP tracking is a real-time forecast of real GDP growth in the current quarter and is updated following nearly every major data release.  At the core of our tracker is a small-scale reproduction of the process by which BEA translates monthly government statistics into official estimates of GDP.  In addition, to expert judgment developed over the last two decades, we employ a suite of proprietary time-series econometric models to guide our assumptions for values of the source data prior to their publication.  As the source data are reported, we replace our assumptions with these data and update our GDP tracking.  

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) coverage

Receive timely summaries detailing our view of the underlying motivations behind the current stance of Federal Reserve policy, the forces shaping decisions, plus our expectations for prospective Fed policy – following each of the eight FOMC meetings.

US Monthly GDP (MGDP) Index

Gain an analytically rigorous understanding of how each release will change the official GDP estimate – far ahead of the government release. We use our US Macro forecasting econometric model, newly released data and revisions, economic judgment, and methods designed to mimic the Bureau of Economic Analysis' data-generation process.

Alternative US and Global Scenarios

Examine scenarios that allow you or your clients to explore the effects of different potential policy outcomes or focus on different assumptions about key data, such as housing or the path of oil prices.

Connect®

Maximize your subscription content with Connect – our state-of-the-art business intelligence platform

  • Real-time reporting: Read updated analysis and commentary as data releases and events warrant
  • Email alerts: Set up notifications for updates to categories of interest
  • Rapid data retrieval: Access analysis and data in a single search or via interactive maps
  • Formatting/presentation tools: Format data by relevant indices and build customizable, presentation-ready graphs
  • Flexible export: Export all forecast tables in multiple formats (Excel, PDF, PowerPoint)
  • Automated content refreshes: Save searches and update content automatically
  • Scenario analysis: Develop your own scenarios with user-friendly tools
Member privileges
  • Analyst access: Connect directly with our award-winning team of 150 full-time economists
  • Webcasts: Email invitations to our US economic-focused webcasts and FOMC meeting reviews, with on-demand availability to listen at your convenience.

Experts

Chris Varvares

Mr. Varvares has nearly 40 years of experience in macroeconomic modeling, forecasting and policy analysis, as co-head of US Economics at IHS Markit, in his previous role as a principal of Macroeconomic Advisers and as a member of the staff of the President's Council of Economic Advisers (1981-1982); he served as a member of the US delegation to the OECD in April 1982. Macroeconomic Advisers was acquired by IHS Markit in 2017. He and the IHS Markit US economic principals serve as consultants to key agencies of the US and foreign governments, major trade associations, and private corporations, and are widely quoted in the business and financial media. IHS Markit is widely recognized as among the most accurate forecasters of the US economy. Mr. Varvares is a recent past president and a former director of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). He served as president of the NABE Gateway chapter in St.Louis and is a member of the American Economic Association. He serves as a member of the New York State Economic and Revenue Advisory Board and has participated in the meetings of the Outside Consultants to the CBO, has been a panelist for the World Economic Forum, and he sits on advisory boards for the Olin Business School at Washington University and the Walker School of Business and Technology at Webster University. Mr. Varvares holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from The George Washington University and received his graduate training (ABD) in Economics from Washington University in St. Louis, where he was also a member of the adjunct faculty in both the economics department and the Olin School of Business.

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Joel Prakken, Ph.D.

A thought-leader on US economic outlook, monetary policy forecasts and fixed income markets with over 30 years of experience and expertise as a macroeconomic modeler, Dr. Prakken has developed an unmatched structural-econometric model of the US economy. He co-founded Macroeconomic Advisers which was acquired by IHS Markit in 2017. Prior to founding Macroeconomic Advisers, Dr. Prakken held the position of senior economist at the World Headquarters of the IBM Corporation and before that he served with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US. He also has held positions on the faculties of New York University's Graduate School of Business, the Economics Department of Washington University, and the Olin School of Business at Washington University. He is the past president and a fellow of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). He is also past president of the Gateway Association of Business Economists in Saint Louis. Dr. Prakken has many publications to his credit, including papers written for the Council of Economic Advisers, the American Council for Capital Formation, and the Center for the American Study of Business on topics ranging from tax reform to budget policy to monetary policy to the impact of technology on productivity. He has testified on these topics before committees in both the US House of Representatives and the Senate. Dr. Prakken has participated in meetings of the Outside Consultants to Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, is a past member of the Panel of Economic Consultants to the Congressional Budget Office and is a current member of the advisory committee of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Dr. Prakken completed his undergraduate degree in economics at Princeton University, and holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Washington University in Saint Louis, United States.

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Ken Matheny, Ph.D.

Mr. Matheny has more than two decades of experience as a professional economist and macroeconomic forecaster, including economic analysis, econometrics, and financial modeling. He is an expert on Federal Reserve policies, macroeconomic impacts, and interactions with the banking and financial sectors. He writes frequently on macroeconomics, financial markets, and the Federal Reserve. He maintains regular contact with clients and is available for media engagements. He has appeared in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Marketplace, and other US and foreign media outlets. Prior to joining IHS Markit, he was a Senior Economist at Macroeconomic Advisers. He was an assistant professor at Purdue University and worked in the banking industry. He holds a Ph.D. from UCLA and a Bachelor of Arts degree from Washington University in St. Louis (Economics and German), magna cum laude.

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Kathleen Navin, CBE

She joined IHS Markit through the 2017 acquisition of Macroeconomic Advisers, where she joined June 2010. Her primary responsibilities pertain to the US Macro Insights (USMI) service and to special reports and projects that utilize the proprietary macroeconomic model, MA/US. Ms. Navin is the technical lead on the Macroprudential Scenarios Service, coordinating and contributing to the development of scenarios and supporting products. In 2015, she became a member of the National Association of Business Economics' inaugural class of Certified Business Economists. She was a research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in the division of Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy. Ms. Navin graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics in 2007 from the University of Missouri, where she went on to earn a Master of Arts degree in Economics in 2008.

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Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

Known as the current-quarter Guru of IHS Markit, Dr. Herzon focuses on translating recent trends in high-frequency data into a near-term forecast of GDP growth with high statistical precision. That includes directing the analysis of the data, authoring data commentaries, running the current-quarter tracking system, designing and maintaining a population-weighted snowfall database and conducting other research that requires a heavy dose of statistical horsepower. In addition, he writes portions of the forecast reports and conducts and reports research on a variety of macro topics. He joined Macroeconomic Advisers (later acquired by IHS Markit) a year prior to receiving his Ph.D. in economics from Washington University in April 1998. His research there focused tracing the effects of monetary policy shocks through various industrial sectors, employing BEA's input-output accounts and time-series econometric techniques. He is a member and previously served as president of the St. Louis Gateway Chapter of NABE.

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Patrick Newport, Ph.D.

Dr. Newport tracks the investment and construction sectors for the Global Insights Macroeconomic Service and serves on client consulting projects. He manages long-term forecasts for Global Insights and co-manages the macroeconomic model. He joined the company in 1998. Previously, he worked as a research economist for the Washington State Department of Revenue, where he later served as a senior economist for the Office of the Forecast Council of Washington State. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Business Administration and a Master of Arts in Economics from Louisiana State University, US. Dr. Newport attained his doctorate in Philosophy from Harvard University, US. He speaks English and Spanish.

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Sara Johnson

In this role, she helps clients assess worldwide business and financial opportunities and risks. Ms. Johnson co-authors the Global Executive Summary, manages the Executive Strategy Council, and presents the economic outlook to international conferences. She previously served as North American research director and chief regional economist with Standard & Poor's DRI, and managing director of global macroeconomics with Global Insight, predecessors of IHS Markit Economics & Country Risk that is now part of IHS Markit. Ms. Johnson is a former director of the National Association for Business Economics and the NABE Foundation and was named an NABE Fellow in 2014. She is past president of The Boston Economic Club and a member of the American Economic Association. Ms. Johnson holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Mathematics from Wellesley College, US, and earned her Master of Arts in Economics from Harvard University, US, with concentrations in Finance and Macroeconomic Theory.

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Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.

Dr. Behravesh works closely with the company's chief economists on the forecasting process at IHS Markit. Dr. Behravesh and his team have received numerous awards, among them the 2017 Lawrence R. Klein Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy Award and top forecasters by Consensus Economics in 2013. Attaining consistently high annual ranking among US forecasters from The Wall Street Journal, Dr. Behravesh was ranked #3 (out of 56) for 2006, and was the only forecaster to place in the top six for 2003, 2004 and 2006. He frequently is cited by leading business publications, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Financial Times, Forbes and US News & World Report. He appears regularly on national radio and television programs, including BBC World Business Report, NBC Nightly News, CNN Headline News, The News Hour with Jim Lehrer (PBS), Fox News, CNBC, Bloomberg TV and Radio, All Things Considered and Marketplace on National Public Radio. He is a featured speaker at many of the top global conferences each year, including IHS Markit CERAWeek and the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.Dr. Behravesh holds Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in economics from the University of Pennsylvania, where Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein was his dissertation advisor, and a Bachelor of Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, US.

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Michael Konidaris

Mr. Konidaris leads the product development for the CECL implementation by financial institutions. His responsibilities include the construction of cross-asset class econometric models, the development of forecasts for Libor, Swap and Corporate Bond rates, and the construction of simulations of global economic scenarios to evaluate the P&L of clients' portfolios. He joined IHS Markit through the 2017 acquisition of Macroeconomic Advisers. He has worked as an economic consultant on the forecasting team at Roubini Global Economics and as a research intern at The Midway Group, a hedge fund specializing in the US residential mortgage market. He completed his military service as a sailor at the Hellenic Navy and co-founded and served at the board of directors of AUEB's Investment and Finance Club, the first ever finance club in a Greek University. Mr. Konidaris holds a Bachelor of Science degree in accounting and finance from Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB), Greece, and a Master of Arts degree in economics from New York University (NYU), US.

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Juan Turcios, M.A.

Juan Turcios is a member of the technical team responsible for producing model output for the Federal Reserve's Supervisory Scenarios and BHC Idiosyncratic Scenarios, including estimating and managing custom-client auxiliary models. Since joining the firm in October 2016, his primary responsibilities have included performing data analysis, contributing to client publications, and assisting in large-scale research projects. Mr. Turcios holds a master's degree in economics from Washington University in St. Louis, United States.

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