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US-China Decoupling Insights

Get a complete view on the impact of the decoupled system that increases disruption for specific countries, sectors and supply chains.

The US-mainland China relationship that has underpinned globalization for decades has begun to unravel, with far-reaching geopolitical and economic consequences for business operations around the world. A dispute that centered around commercial issues of trade, investment, currency, market access, and intellectual property rights as recently as 2018 has rapidly expanded to into a broad political rivalry that encompasses geopolitical alliances, state security, and public health. What will shift in policy and geopolitical relations mean for business between these nations, sourcing opportunities, and growth in existing business? Are you prepared?

Learn more about our work on US China Decoupling We can help you navigate the economic, geopolitical, and trade shifts coming
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Built on a foundation of excellence in custom solutions, and scenario creation

Scenarios
  • Geopolitical scenarios  Understand the political and policy implications from US-China decoupling and how these changes will impact political stability, industry, global economies, supply chains and more.
  • Industry Scenarios   Our experts can help you understand which industries and geographies will feel the consequences of the decoupling.
  • Economic Scenarios  Understand how decoupling will effect commodity prices, exchange rates, monetary and financial policy, energy prices, demographics and more as you build your new strategic plans.
Custom Solutions
  • Economic Impact Do you need to demonstrate a positive jobs and economic impact due to new trade rules? We provide comprehensive assessments that quantify and clearly articulate the economic ripple effect (on jobs, tax revenues, etc.) arising from changes to the status quo.
  • Gov Revenue  Quantify how the china-US decoupling could impact, positively or negatively, your jurisdictions’ capacity to plan, budget and deliver vital public services.
  • Integrity Due Diligence A commercial view on any possible risks you could face with a new sourcing partner, as well as an assessment of the company’s key strengths and weaknesses.
  • Stakeholder Influence Mapping With decoupling comes new partnerships, get an independent assessment of which risks are likely to serve as priorities for potential investors and examples from other jurisdictions on how these risks have impacted inward investment.
  • Economic Impact Do you need to demonstrate a positive jobs and economic impact from new opportunities due to decoupling? We provide comprehensive assessments that quantify and clearly articulate the economic ripple effect (on jobs, tax revenues, etc.) arising from changes to the status quo.
Modelling
  • Country Risk Investment Model Utilizing our country expertise, sector analysis, and granular risk scores we can forecasts and measure the expected financial impact decoupling could have on cash flows and investment returns and activities.

Experts

Natznet Tesfay

Her areas of specialization include analysis of political developments affecting the offshore energy sector in West Africa, particularly Nigeria; commercial developments, especially in mining, energy, and infrastructure in East Africa; and piracy risks in the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Guinea. Natznet leads the development of the Africa risk indicator and horizon scanning infrastructure, drawing on a range of methodologies such as geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. She supports business growth across the continent, advising C-level executives on market entry, stakeholder engagement and risk management, and African governments on leveraging their natural resource potential for sustained economic growth. In 2017, Natznet was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum.Natznet regularly speaks in major media outlets and at high-level conferences. Previously, at Exclusive Analysis she managed the Africa intelligence team of in-country analysts and sources, as well as Exclusive Analysis's Johannesburg office. She also advised municipal governments on sustainably developing megacities and national governments on the development of free trade zones, foreign policy and the mining sector in East Africa. Natznet degrees include a BA in Government from Harvard University and a MSc in Urbanization and Development from the London School of Economics.

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Carlos Cardenas

Carlos, Director of Latin America Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting, is responsible for the generation of commercially relevant political and violent risks forecasts for a variety of sectors in Latin America, including energy, manufacturing, mining and insurance. He manages a team of Latin American experts, as well as a remote network of contributors based in the region, covering risks such as expropriation, non-payment, contract frustration, civil unrest, business disruption and security-related risks (extortion, kidnapping, crime and terrorism). Carlos has also worked and delivered numerous consulting projects for a variety of clients interested in understanding the role of stakeholders and risks at the project level in Latin America. His areas of expertise include petroleum policy and economics, public governance in natural resource rich countries, international relations, criminal dynamics in Latin America and political economy.He holds a BA in International Studies from Universidad Central de Venezuela (Magna Cum-Laude), an MA in International Political Economy from Birmingham University (distinction) and an LLM in Petroleum Law and Policy (distinction) from Dundee University.

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Keerti Rajan

The Integrated Research team works with our experts to combine proprietary data and insights from across economics, country risk, and industry teams to create holistic, forward-looking analysis that helps our clients make effective business decisions. He has previously led the Asia-Pacific desk and the Political Risk desk for our Country Risk team where he was responsible for the global calibration of political and business risks and development of the Country Risk team's methodology. He assessed systemic credit and liquidity risks to UK financial stability for the Bank of England; built stochastic models to forecast capital adequacy for financial companies at Moore Stephens Consulting; and worked in RBS's equity derivatives business.He earned a Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Cambridge with a thesis on the social epidemiology of income inequality in India. His previous academic work compared Indonesia and Malaysia during the Asian Financial Crisis.

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Anna Boyd

She was previously the head of MENA corporate investigations at FTI Consulting where she managed many complex multi-jurisdictional matters in the field of integrity due diligence, asset tracing and litigation support, including in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Libya.Prior to her move into consulting, she was head of the Middle East and North Africa Country Risk Forecasting team at S&P Global, responsible for political risk forecasting, scenario modelling and quantitative risk scoring across the whole region. Anna has led on projects including devising a political risk model relating to the security of Qatari food imports, managing a series of in-depth MENA region country studies for a US government client, and war-gaming possible future developments in the Syria conflict. She has provided expert comment to several media outlets including Al Jazeera, Reuters and the BBC. Anna started her career as an Arabic linguist with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.Anna holds an MA with Distinction in Arabic from the School of Oriental and African Studies, having written her dissertation on 1950s-60s Iraqi poetry. She also holds a 1st class honors degree in Arabic from the University of Edinburgh and studied in Cairo and Damascus. She speaks French and Arabic.

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John Raines

Dr. John presents his analysis in a manner that allows clients not only to understand the context of current US and global news events, but how those incidents will impact their industry's performance over time. He has appeared in numerous media outlets, such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, Time Magazine, BBC, NPR, CNBC, and The Associated Press, discussing topics like US elections, American foreign policy, and domestic legislation. In his role of principal global risk adviser, he has delivered dozens of keynote speeches and spoken to thousands of clients on macro country risk topics, from issues like populism and trade protection to US sanctions and international terrorism. In his previous work experience with the U.S. Department of State, he held roles responsible for conducting economic policy for the United States Embassy in Panama and overseeing the American Citizen Services unit in Hong Kong. He also worked at the World Bank, where he managed several projects in production of the World Development Indicators (WDI). His other assignments have included the U.S. Department of the Treasury as a Presidential Management Fellow, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the World Trade Center.Dr. John earned a Ph.D. in political science from Ohio State University and a master's degree in international relations from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Study (SAIS).

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Laurence Allan

Laurence leads S&P Global's Country Risk regional team for Europe/CIS, directing analysis and forecasting of political and violent risks, including geopolitical and global themes, and their impacts on the business operational environment. He has supported senior decision makers from diverse sectors on investment and operational issues across the region, including through delivery of bespoke sector and project level consultancy engagements; he is responsible for maintaining and developing expert in-country source networks and methodological rigour in our regional forecasting. Previously, he led the IHS Markit (now part of S&P Global) Latin America team. Before joining S&P Global, Laurence was a research analyst at the UK Foreign Office, providing Latin America expertise and insights for UK government policy makers and diplomats, briefing senior officials and ministers, and working with external stakeholders. He has lectured politics and international relations for several years, including at the University of London and the Royal College of Defence Studies (London). He has also worked on various projects - including on illegal drug policies, and effectiveness of public service provision - for non-profit organisations focused on Latin America and on Europe, including Transparency International, the Royal Society of Arts, and Amnesty International.Laurence holds a Ph.D in Politics (University of London), and speaks fluent Spanish and intermediate Brazilian Portuguese.

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