Special Report - China Coal Chemical Industry Analysis (2015 Update)

The rapidly growing coal-to-chemical industry will continue to have a major impact on the conventional chemical industry.

Do you need to understand the impact of coal based chemicals on global chemical markets?

The recent decline in crude oil pricing creates a less favorable industry dynamic for unconventional chemical producers in China. Coal-to-Olefins (CTO) remains profitable, but its margin has been severely reduced as international polyolefin prices have declined with the decline in crude oil/naphtha pricing. Returns on new CTO investments will be challenging if low crude oil pricing persists. The investment economics in China for Methanol-to-Olefins (MTO) and Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) are unfavorable under current spreads between methanol, LPG and olefins. This study will examine the outlook for the China coal chemical industry based on energy scenarios where crude oil prices trend well below $100/bbl.

Updates the previous study's project status for the coal to chemical value chains in methanol,
ethylene and propylene, MEG, PVC, and ethanol;
adds new projects announced since the previous study was completed
Includes updated economic analyses for coal to methanol, ethylene and propylene, MEG, and ethanol
Contains an updated market outlook through 2030

Value Chains Covered

Coal-to-Methanol (CTM) Chain Analysis
Coal-to-Olefins (CTO) Analysis
Coal-based PVC Chain Analysis
Coal-to-MEG (CTMEG) Chain Analysis
Coal-to-Ethanol (CTE) Chain Analysis
Coal demand into chemicals and synthetic fuels

This IHS Special report provides an all inclusive analysis of various coal based chemicals across different value chains (methanol, ethylene, propylene, MEG, and aromatics). The analysis is based on actual on-site visits and interviews to identify the actual progress of ongoing and planned coal chemical projects and provide our unbiased view on the status for those plants under operation, as well as the probability that announced (but not under construction) projects will actually be built.

Scope of Work

Value chains covered:

Chemical Value Chains

For each value chain, the study provides:

Market outlook: The study includes annual market outlooks to 2030 for each chemical and its derivatives where applicable. The market analysis will address the market potential for coal chemicals.
Technology: The study includes a technology analysis on the currently available technologies that are either already being implemented or planned for implementation in China. The comparison of different technologies will also be provided..
Economics: The study provides economic snapshots for the years 2012 and 2016 under several different integration scenarios for three locations in China (East China, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia). It also compares coal-based economics with competing naphtha-based technologies where applicable.
Producers and project review: This study provides a full list of all the coal-based producers as well as projects currently in construction and planned. The study team conducts site visits and interviews to identify the actual progress of ongoing and planned coal chemical projects. IHS Chemical provides an unbiased view on the status for those plants under operation, as well as the probability that announced (but not under construction) projects will actually be built. The project list is provided in Excel format with detailed project status and project probability..

In addition, the study provides a China Economy Review and China Coal Market Overview, both of which will impact China coal chemical supply and demand.

Deliverables

The deliverables for the existing China Coal to Chemical Analysis report published in 2013 include the book in electronic form and project assessment in Excel. The deliverable for China Coal to Chemical Analysis update will consist of one optional interactive workshop/webinar, a PowerPoint presentation, and project assessment file in Excel.

Price and margin sensitivity analysis from 2014-2020, and 2025

Table of Contents

China Coal 2013 Study

Introduction

China economic review

Short-term outlook
Longer-term outlook

China coal market overview

Coal classification
China coal reserves analysis
Review of Chinese coal supply
Review of China’s coal logistics system
- Short distance trucking
- Medium distance trucking
- Long distance trucking
Price outlook

Coal-to-methanol chain analysis

Methanol market analysis
- World methanol market
- China methanol market
Coal gasification technology
- Chemistry
- Technology types
- Fixed-bed gasifier with intermittent gasification
- Fluidized-bed coal gasification process
- Entrained flow coal gasification process
- Selection of gasification technology
- Methanol synthesis technology
Production economics
- Global cost position
- Economic snapshot
- Producer list & future project assessment

Coal-to-olefins chain analysis

Ethylene market analysis
- World ethylene market
- China ethylene market
- Propylene market analysis
- World propylene market
- China propylene market IHS CHEMICAL
Methanol-to-olefins technology
- UOP/HYDRO MTO process
- TOTAL/UOP MTO with OCP
- DMTO process
- DMTO-II process
- SINOPEC SMTO process
- Comparison of MTO processes
- Lurgi MTP process
- MTP reactor design and operation
- Product recovery
- Tsinghua FMTP process
- SRIPT (Sinopec) S-MTP process
Production economics
- Global cost position
- Economic snapshot
Producers list & future project assessment

Coal-to-PVC chain analysis

PVC market analysis
- World polyvinyl chloride market
- China polyvinyl chloride market
Coal-based polyvinyl chloride technology
- Calcium carbide production
- Acetylene production
- Chlor-alkali production
- VCM production
- PVC production
Production economics
- Economic snapshot
Producers list & future project assessment

Coal-to-MEG chain analysis

MEG market analysis
- World MEG market
- China MEG market
Coal-based monoethylene glycol (MEG) technology
- Direct process
- Indirect process
- Ube process
- FJIRSM (Fujian Institute of Research on the Structure of Matter) process
- SRIPT (Sinopec Shanghai Research Institute of Petrochemical Technology) process
Production economics
- Economic snapshot
Producers list & future project assessment

Coal-to-ethanol chain analysis

Ethanol market analysis
- World ethanol market
- China ethanol market
Coal-to-ethanol technology
- Celanese TCX™acetyl process
- SOPO process using DICP technology
- LanzaTech process
Production economics
- Economic snapshot
Producers list & future project assessment
Coal demand into chemicals and synthetic fuels
- Coal demand into ammonia analysis
- Coal demand into synthetic fuel and natural gas analysis
- Total coal demand into chemicals and synthetic fuels

Coal Chemical Policy and Environmental Issues

Coal chemical policy analysis
Environmental issues
- Water supply shortage
- Air pollution
- Carbon emissions
- Wastewater
- Solid waste

Appendices

China methanol capacity
China ethylene capacity
China propylene capacity
China PVC capacity
China MEG capacity IHS CHEMICAL

China Coal Update

Coal-to-Aromatics Chain Analysis

Technology Analysis
Production Economics
- Economics Snapshot
- Production Cost Comparison for various locations and with conventional naphtha reforming process
Producers List & Future Project Assessment

Coal-to-Methanol Chain Analysis

Production Economics
- Economics Snapshot
- Production Cost Comparison for various locations and with natural gas based methanol
Producers List & Future Project Assessment

Coal-to-Olefins Analysis

Production Economics
- Economics Snapshot
- Production Cost Comparison for various locations and with naphtha crackers
Producers List & Future Project Assessment

Coal-to-MEG Chain Analysis

Production Economics
- Production Cost Economics Snapshot
- Production Cost Comparison for various locations and with naphtha crackers
Producers List & Future Project Assessment

Coal Chemical Policy and Environmental Issues

13th Five-Year-Plan for Coal Chemical Industry
Interpretation on Recent Government Policy Changes
Environmental issues
- Carbon Tax
- Water Availability

Download Prospectus

Coal: "China Coal Chemical Industry Analysis (2015 Update)"
The rapidly growing coal-to-chemicals industry will have a major impact on the conventional chemical industry. There has been significant progress since the original China Coal Chemical Industry Analysis was completed. This report updates previous study's project status for the coal to chemicals value chains in methanol, ethylene and propylene, MEG, PVC, and ethanol; adds new projects announced since the previous study was completed. It includes updated economic analysis for coal to methanol, ethylene and propylene, MEG, and ethanol and contains an updated market outlook through 2030.

Download Prospectus (PDF, 860 KB)

Experts

Paul Pang – Vice President IHS Chemical China
Bingli Wang – Director, Polyolefins
William Chen – Senior Analyst, Olefins
Xiaomeng Ma – Principal Analyst, Methanol
Will Xu – Senior Analyst, Polyolefins

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