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Special Report - C5 Value Chain Study

C5 Value Chain Study: From Cracker to Key C5 Derivative Applications for Isoprene, DCPD and Piperylene

The C5 stream provides a link between the cracker and a number of downstream industries. Over the past 3 years there have been significant additions to splitter capacities in Asia. New announced capacities for crude C5 derivatives are under construction now. Under volatile energy conditions, producers need to add maximum value to every stream the cracker produces.

These will also impact the buyers and sellers in the entire C5 value chain business especially the unsaturated polyester (UPR), Hydocarbon Resins (HCR), Isoprene and its derivatives markets. Making strategic decisions and identifying the growing end-use markets and geographies will be critical.

  • What is the rivalry and competition for the C5 stream and the outlook for those individual markets?
  • How does the cracker feedstock slate impact C5 stream availability and key component content?
  • What are the trade flows for the derivatives and how are they impacted by the crude oil deflation?
  • What is the outlook for Isoprene supply situation & impact to utilization rates?
  • What my individual competitive position relative to other consumers from the C5 derivative stream?
  • What is the potential for industry consolidation?
  • How will it impact my strategy with suppliers, regions and customers?
Maximize your C5 Business
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IHS Special Report on C5 Value Chain

Consumers of C5 and its derivatives need complete assessment of their feedstock and supply demand dynamics to make strategic decisions such as which suppliers to partner with, new applications for these materials based on forecast future pricing and when to use alternate chemistries. IHS Chemical C5 Special report provides a thorough analysis of C5 supply demand dynamics, end-use market dynamics including consumption, expected growth rates, potential winners and losers and inter-region trade dynamics. This is the most comprehensive and current report on C5 value chain and is built on integration of our Base and Specialty Chemical Expertise with global trade statistics and end market information.

Scope of Work

In this report IHS Chemical will provide market dynamics for the major C5 petrochemicals – isoprene, DCPD (according to purity), piperylene concentrate, isoamylenes, pentanes and where pertinent for completeness, C9 resin. The regions covered will include: North America, South America, Western Europe, Central Europe, the CIS and Baltic states, the Middle East, Africa, China, Japan, Other Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania.

Market dynamics will cover consumption by end-use, current and future supply/demand, capacity, inter-regional trade and balances for the 2009 to 2030 time period.

Study scope: Isoprene, DCPD, Piperlyene, isoamylenes, pentanes, and C9 resin

  • Market Dynamics for C5 Petrochemicals
    • Consumption by end-use, current and future supply/demand, capacity, inter-regional trade and balances for the 2009 to 2030 time period.
  • Pricing Dynamics for C5 Petrochemicals
    • Price and margin forecasts for the major C5 petrochemical components
  • Downstream Industries Review
    • Market dynamics, capacity developments, inter-regional trade and a review of strategic issues
  • Value Chain Considerations
    • Tire and automotive industries, adhesives, renewable energy
  • Manufacturing Costs and Technologies for C5s and Derivatives
    • Provided for US, Western Europe, the Middle East, Japan, and China
Deliverables

In addition to the final report in narrative form (PDF), this report includes online access to data tables in Excel format. Clients also receive access to IHS Chemical C5 and derivative experts, who can provide additional explanation about market fundamentals and trends discussed in the report

Sample Supply/Demand Figure: Isoprene in China

Sample Supply/Demand Figure: Isoprene in China

Sample Cost of Production Summary: Hydrocarbon Resins

Sample Cost of Production Summary: Hydrocarbon Resins

Sample Cost of Production Estimate: Isoprene from an Isoprene Heart-cut

Sample Cost of Production Estimate: Isoprene from an Isoprene Heart-cut

Table of Contents
  1. Introduction
  2. Market Analysis
    • Supply
      • Strategic issues
        • Lightening of steam cracker feedstock
        • Technology developments affecting supply
          • Small scale C5 extraction technology in China
          • Synthetic Isoprene
            • Acetylene-based production
            • Dehydrogenation-based production
            • Isobutylene/formaldehyde-based-production
            • Biomass-based production
      • Supply by Region
        • North America
        • Russia
        • Europe outside of Russia
        • China
        • Asia outside of China
      • Capacity
        • Isoprene
        • DCPD
        • Piperylene
        • Isoamylene
    • Demand
      • Isoprene
        • End use market growth outlook
          • Natural and synthetic rubber and tires
          • Adhesives and Sealants
        • Demand by derivative
          • Polyisoprene
          • SIS/SEPS (plus other SBCs)
          • Butyl Rubber
          • Specialty applications
            • Fragrance chemicals
            • Epoxy resin hardening agents
            • Nutraceuticals
        • Demand by year 2009-2030
      • DCPD
        • End use market growth outlook
          • Plastics use in automotive
          • Construction
          • Electrical/electronic
        • Demand by application
          • Hydrocarbon resin
            • Waterwhite types (for hygiene, etc.)
            • Unsaturated types (for inks, etc.)
          • Unsaturated polyester resin
          • Cyclic olefin copolymers
          • Poly DCPD RIM
          • Others
        • Demand by year 2009-2030
      • Piperylene
        • End use market growth outlook
          • Aliphatic/C5 Water-white Tackifiers
          • Aromatic/C9 Water-white Tackifiers
          • Mixed monomer systems
        • Demand by year 2009-2030
      • Other Key C5 Components
        • Isoamylenes
        • Normal Pentenes and cyclopentene
        • Mixed Pentanes and Cyclopentane
    • Supply Demand Balance and Trade Grids
      • Isoprene
      • DCPD (low/intermediate purity, high/ultra-pure)
      • Piperylene
      • Isoamylene
  3. Production Economics
    • Steam Cracker Severity vs. C5 yield
    • How to Value C5 Streams
      • Alternative values to recycle co-cracking
      • Alternative values to the refinery
    • Isoprene
      • Production cost by technology
        • Technology Overview
        • Extraction – US, China
          • Full C5 complex
          • Isoprene heart-cut
        • Isopentane dehydrogenation – Russia
        • Isobutylene carbonylation – Russia/China
        • Coal-derived acetylene- based – China
        • Biomass-based in Brazil and Asia
      • Production cost for key derivatives
        • Polyisoprene
        • Comparison with other synthetic rubber or natural rubber?
    • DCPD
      • Technology Overview
      • Production cost for low/high purity DCPD
      • Upgrading low/intermediate purity to high purity
      • Upgrading to ultra-high purity DCPD via cyclopentadiene
    • Piperylene
      • Technology Overview
      • Production cost for piperylene from a CPD-depleted C5 stream
    • Isoamylenes (via TAME)
      • Technology Overview
      • Production cost for TAME via etherification
      • Production cost for isoamylenes via TAME back-cracking
  4. Price and Margin Forecasts
    • Overview of Crude Oil Scenarios
    • Major C5 Components
      • Isoprene monomer
      • DCPD (low/intermediate, high and UHP grades)
      • Piperylene concentrate
      • Isoamylenes
    • C9 Resin Oil
  5. Strategies for adding value
    • Defining a C5 complex
    • Downstream and upstream Integration
    • Exploiting C5s at the refinery-petrochemical interface
Download Prospectus

C5 Value Chain Study: From Cracker to Key C5 Derivative Applications for Isoprene, DCPD and Piperylene
Under volatile energy conditions, producers need to add maximum value to every stream the cracker produces. The C5 stream provides a link between the cracker and a number of downstream industries. This report completes IHS Chemical’s coverage of the steam cracker envelope with a comprehensive view of the C5 business including supply, demand, production economics and price. It provides market dynamics for the major C5 petrochemicals – isoprene, DCPD (according to purity), piperylene concentrate, isoamylenes, pentanes, and, where pertinent for completeness, C9 resin.

Download Prospectus (PDF, 1 MB)

Experts
  • Dr. Mark Morgan – Managing Director
  • Raymond Will – Director, Chemical Consulting
  • Masa Yoneyama – Director, Chemical Consulting
  • Juay Tong Goh – Director, Chemical Consulting
  • Dr. Richard Charlesworth – Director, Chemical Consulting
  • Erik Linak – Senior Principal Analyst
  • Emanuel Ormonde – Senior Analyst
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Experts

Mark Morgan, Ph.D.

Dr. Morgan has dedicated more than two decades to consulting in specialty chemicals, process technology and industrial biotechnology. In addition, to chemicals consulting, he supports work in other IHS Markit business units where chemicals and materials are involved, in particular Aerospace, Defence and Security (AD&S). In 2011, he joined Chemical Market Associates, Inc. (CMAI) to lead its global activities in renewables. Previously, he was with Chem Systems, a leading boutique consulting firm serving chemicals and allied industries. His work covered lenders advisory work, M&A due diligence, project feasibility, technology validation and valuation, legal work and more. Following service in the army, he began has chemicals career with BP undertaking blue sky research as well as plant support, together with taking new ideas from concept to commercialization. Dr. Morgan earned his doctorate in chemical physics at the University of Bristol, United Kingdom.He leads consulting projects in all regions in specialty chemicals, biotechnology, renewables and advanced materials. He has strong experience across multiple specialty chemical value chains; linear alpha olefins, detergent alcohols, surfactants, nutraceuticals, the C4 chain, the C5 chain, specialty aromatics, biodegradable polymers, bio-based building blocks, engineering polymers, higher performance materials, carbon fibre, construction chemicals, food/feed additives, valorizing cracker by-product streams, etc. Mark has also undertaken lenders advisory work - commercial and technical for small and large capital projects, as well as supporting due diligence processes in M&A transactions, venture capital, etc.

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Masahiro Yoneyama

Mr. Yoneyama expertise also includes development of chemical company strategies and business plants. Since 2003, Mr. Yoneyama has led the team of researchers in Japan, which has been analyzing the Asian chemical industry and market. He has more than 30 years in the chemical industry, including 15 years at IHS Markit. Previously he was employed in the chemical division in a multinational oil company working in Japan, Singapore and the UK. Mr. Yoneyama received a Bachelor of Engineering in Chemical Engineering from the Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan and an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley, US​.

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Richard Charlesworth, Ph.D.

Dr. Charlesworth currently supports clients globally who subscribe to IHS Markit Chemical's technology related products, namely the Competitive Cost and Margin Analytics Tools (CCMAs), Process Economics Program (PEP), Process Comparison and Cost Tracker (PCCT) and Refinery Cost and Margin Analytics Tool (RCMA).He joined IHS Markit in 2009. He led many consulting projects across different petrochemical streams that have included market studies, feasibility studies, technology selection studies, feedstock sourcing and pricing studies, marketing strategies, logistics reviews, capital estimates and integration assessments. Many projects have included technology assessment and selection, full financial modeling and production cash cost comparisons of facilities.Prior to IHS Markit he worked for Nexant, responsible for selling and executing single and multi-client consulting services where he worked on feasibility studies, feedstock strategy projects, independent technical consultant assignments and company refinancing projects.After completing a PhD in Chemical Engineering as part of a project with British Gas, Richard began his career in 1996 with BP Chemicals in Hull, UK, where he worked for five years as a process engineer on acetic acid and vinyl acetate manufacturing plants and pilot plants. In 2001 he moved into the commercial side of the company and held various financial analyst positions in Solvents and Industrial Chemicals and was logistics performance manager for BP's European polymer and solvents assets.Dr. Richard also worked for Ineos Olefins' financial and planning group and was responsible for the short, medium and long term financials for all Ineos' steam crackers in Europe. During this time, he was the lead in developing the Olefins long-term strategy financials, the financial lead for due diligence for the acquisition of a steam cracker complex and led the Olefins annual financial planning process.

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