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Reinventing the Truck

How will changes in technologies and regulations effect truck demand, propulsion choices, powertrain shifts, energy demand and regional climate goals over the next three decades?

The IHS Markit 2021 Reinventing the Truck study provides an understanding of major upcoming changes in the trucking industry. Now in its fourth year, this study boasts all-new scenario storylines, with updated political, social and economic assumptions.

Study Highlights

  • Role in the future movement of goods
  • Future fuel of choices by markets; prospects for hydrogen fuel-cell and battery-electric vehicles
  • Regulations and how they will shape manufacturer and operator choices
  • Pace of change in new truck sales vs. the fleet in operation (VIO/parc)
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See the data fields that are included for both scenarios: Green Rules and Inflections
Download an overview/excerpt from the 2021 Reinventing the Truck report
RTT 2021 Overview

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The trucking industry will have an outsize role in the upcoming energy transition as heavy-duty commercial vehicles account for almost a quarter of global refined product demand. Being increasingly exposed to disruptive forces could radically alter long-established trends in heavy-duty trucking and have critical impacts on fuel, electricity and hydrogen demand.
 
The Reinventing the Truck study will include:
  • Excel data sets for truck sales, and fleet outlooks to 2050 in two scenarios. 
  • A Summary Report that will provide detail on the policy, technology, and cost assumptions used in the sales and fleet modeling and also in the total cost of ownership analysis. 
  • The research includes the following key markets: China, US, Europe, Japan.

Experts

Andrej Divis

As head of the IHS Markit medium and heavy commercial vehicle industry service, Mr. Divis leads truck sales and production forecast activities globally. Members of his team are located in Brazil, mainland China, India, Japan and the United States as well as in Europe. Educated in the United States, he holds a master's degree from The Johns Hopkins University and a bachelor's from Georgetown. His spoken languages include English, Czech and German.Mr. Divis brings nearly two decades of automotive and commercial-vehicle industry experience to the role, having begun his career in 2001 as a truck analyst with PlanEcon/Global Insight (now part of IHS Markit), covering Eastern Europe and the Middle East. He held a variety of analytical and planning positions with General Motors in Europe starting in 2003. These included assignments in Germany and in Hungary and roles in forecasting; new business development; and product planning. Based in the United States now, Mr. Divis re-joined Automotive in 2012, focusing on the East European and North American truck markets. Recent team efforts have focused on the effects of the COVID pandemic on the commercial-vehicle markets, and on upcoming new-technology rollouts, including the anticipated increased electrification of buses and trucks.

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Miki Sasaki

Ms. Sasaki's responsibilities are global powertrain forecast, and new technology research. The current main tasks are electrification trends forecast and autonomous trends. Before joining IHS Markit, she worked in research and development for around 20 years. Ms. Sasaki's last projects were electric vehicle development, truck platooning project and CO2 reduction project.

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Antti Lindstrom

His primary region includes the three North American truck producing countries (United States, Mexico, Canada) and their market intelligence, trends as well as technical developments and new products. -- Antti has a Master's degree from the University of Michigan and a Bachelor's degree from the University of Turku, Finland. He is fluent in English, Finnish, German, and Swedish (French passable).

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Christiane Stein

Ms. Stein joined the company in mid-2016 and is responsible for the European and Global Production Forecast. This includes market and competitor intelligence, future technologies and market segmentation. She analyzes the current trends and influences on the production of commercial vehicles. Christiane is also an expert on bus markets and segmentation and has a deep understanding of the production process. Prior to joining IHS Markit, Ms. Stein worked nearly ten years in the automotive industry. Her work experience include positions in the forecasting and market analysis departments at MAN Truck & Bus AG and BorgWarner Turbo Systems where she forecasted and segmented the global truck, bus and passenger car markets. Ms. Stein graduated in Business Administration in Leipzig, Germany.

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Paritosh Gupta

Mr. Gupta's responsibilities include tracking and analyzing market trends, OEM and supplier strategies, as well as analysis of foreseeable impacts from the political and economic environment, government policies and regulations. He handles both the sales and production forecasts for all countries under his purview. He has worked in the automotive market research industry for almost the entirety of his career starting with Markets and Markets before moving to IHS Markit in 2016. Mr. Gupta holds a master's degree in business administration from the University of Petroleum & Energy Studies, India. He speaks fluent English and Hindi.

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Jia Li

She is responsible for medium and heavy commercial vehicle industry analysis and sales forecast in Greater China. Her expertise includes sales forecast, OEM strategy, market trend, competition analysis, and analysis on industry-related regulation and policy. Before joining IHS Markit in July 2011, she worked as senior industry analyst in the Strategy Department of a leading Chinese medium and heavy commercial vehicle OEM. Prior to that, she gained macroeconomics research background when she worked on the trading floor of a world-class fixed asset investment firm. Ms. Li holds an MS degree in Macroeconomics, Finance and Statistics from Humbolt University of Berlin in Germany.

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