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Benchmarking, Pricing and Aggregation, and Scenario Analysis

Improve your understanding and modeling of country and economic risk across countries and sectors with the support of our country risk consulting team

Incorporate country risk ratings to make smarter decisions
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Benchmarking

Understand relative risk utilizing our risk scores.

Integrate our country risk scores into existing risk models, to set ‘traffic light’ systems for Go/No Go decisions.

We can supplement our 28 perils with our subject-matter and methodology experts to develop a bespoke score index for you. Previous projects have covered:

  • Sector-specific scores
  • City-level scores
  • Reputational risk scores

Pricing and Aggregation

Incorporate the influence and impact of country risk and make more effective and efficient pricing and aggregation (limits) decisions.

Combining our country risk data, macroeconomics and industry metrics, we can help you more precisely price in risk and more efficiently allocate investment limits without creating an over-complicated process.

Our Country Risk Investment Model allow us to quantify in financial terms the country risk impact on cash flow of a specific project or industry.

We have developed a blended approach to statistical forecasting, which incorporates data and trend analysis as well as qualitative expert judgement to account for lacking data. This allows us to produce inputs for probabilistic modeling exercises for country risk datasets.


Scenario analysis

Explore possible futures to model impact, feed stress-testing exercises and improve contagion regions.

Our Scenarios draw on our strong quantitative and qualitative expertise in risk forecasting and are grounded in the deep knowledge and insight of local dynamics from our regional teams and source network. The IHS Markit difference:

  • Scenario selection driven by your specific requirements
  • Detailed and visualized scenario evolution
  • Quantified scenario impacts
  • Indicators and pathways to enable monitoring of increasing/decreasing probability

Expert

Alexia Ash

Ms. Ash is a quantification expert within the country risk team. She is experienced at using methods including risk indexing, stochastic processes, Bayesian modelling, and regression analysis. She was on the development team for Every Point on the Planet (EPOP), IHS Markit's flagship country risk mapping tool. She has worked on projects for private sector clients to provide probabilistic modelling of terrorist attacks by specific location and time frame; to design methodology to identify percentage probabilities for scenarios affecting food and water security in the Middle East; and to model the impact of economics and country risk on asset investments. Ms. Ash holds a Bachelor of Arts in mathematics, as well as a Bachelor of Arts in political science from the University of Florida in the United States, and Master of Science in global political economy from the London School of Economics (LSE), United Kingdom.

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