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Economics

Post-Pandemic Geopolitics and Economic Solutions

Gain a better understanding of the post-pandemic geopolitical impact, the global economy and specific geographies and sectors

The Covid-19 pandemic is now a long-term planning reality. Corporations and businesses are shifting their focus from the initial crisis management led response phase of the pandemic (focusing on safety and security of personnel and assets), towards a more strategic review of business resilience and strategy. Are you ready? Our Economics & Country Risk experts are uniquely positioned to help you evaluate situations, exposures, specific opportunities or ventures in light of new and evolving global challenges.
Do you have a solid strategy for a post-pandemic world?
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How IHS Markit can support your business

Scenario analysis for crisis management and strategic planning

Whether we are looking at a health crisis, a natural disaster, or political upheaval, our team will develop specific scenario narratives and pathways for policy responses, economic shifts, and industry challenges. We offer insights into the dynamics relevant for your geographies and sectors of interest enabling you to set a steady path forward amidst uncertainty.


Working closely with you to explore relevant scenarios and impacts

  • Scenarios workshop
    2 hours led by our economists, country risk and industry experts. The workshop convenes senior leadership representatives from across your business to ensure all perspectives are captured. The workshop would include a brief presentation of our Geopolitical Scenarios for 2025, followed by a brainstorming session to identify your top concerns in terms of business impacts, before exploring geopolitical and industry themes and indicators leading to these.
  • Customized scenario reports and pathways and impacts
    Based on insights captured during the workshop, we will build up to three bespoke macro-level 5-year scenarios, with associated sets of geopolitical and industry indicators to monitor, and qualitative and quantitative assessment of impacts, for approval by your team before delivery in a final report.
  • Quarterly update reports
    To help you track developments and which scenario is becoming more likely, we provide quarterly update reports in the following 12-month period containing alerts and analysis of which indicators have been triggered that are relevant to the scenarios and associated impacts.

Opportunity assessments

Evaluate specific opportunities or ventures in light of new and evolving global challenges. Work with us to understand how politics, economics and industry dynamics will affect the opportunity at hand – any risks introduced by the pandemic and the impacts it is generating, and how to quantify these effectively. We take an intelligence-led approach to new market entry enabling you to businesses build new ventures and scale them in emerging markets. 

Support can include

  • Customized reports for emerging markets
    Deep dives on the emerging markets you identify as core to your market entry plans. We provide actionable insights into the stakeholder and competitive landscape, untapped industry and regulatory trends to exploit, quantifying and qualifying new opportunities, and comparative benchmarking of similar markets in a region. Our analysis is always forward-looking, taking critical challenges like the pandemic into account.
  • Risk quantification
    We identify and quantify future challenges to new ventures in emerging markets with a focus on macrosystemic market risks, barriers to entry, and compliance/regulatory risks. We can translate country-level risks into likely impact on project cashflow, NPV and IRR. Learn more.
  • Business partner vetting in emerging markets Our consulting team specializes in stakeholder and third-party vetting specifically in relation to their integrity/reputational profile and their track record of operation in a particular market.
  • Executive, governmental and public-facing reports and presentations
    Our experts can provide public facing materials that communicate the benefit of your investment in a particular market to government and the wider public. Rigorous social and economic impact analysis underpins these and provide an objective expert view.

Expert briefings

Our experts across geopolitics, economics and industry, and life sciences track global developments and indicators on a daily basis to form views on what it all means for our clients. 

Support can include

  • Executive workshops and custom presentations
    Executive team workshops and presentations to inform decision makings, help untangle the significance and impacts of global developments booked directly with our consulting team. Book now
  • Experts by IHS Markit
    Shorter single-issue discussions or meetings can be booked through Experts by IHS Markit

Built on a foundation of excellence in custom solutions, modelling, and scenario creation

Scenarios
  • Geopolitical
    Anchored in our geopolitics expertise our team will develop scenarios that help set a plan for growth and resilience
  • Industry Scenario Service
    Our experts can help you understand which  industries and geographies will feel the consequences of an economic or geopolitical incident
  • Economic Scenarios
    Understand the effect of changes in commodity prices, exchange rates, monetary and financial policy, energy prices, demographics and more as you build your new strategic plans.
  • Financial
    Utilizing our deep knowledge of the financial industry, economic drivers, and risk profiles, we can help you quantify your total risk profile, conduct rigorous stress tests, provide transparency, and promote confidence.
Modelling
  • Country Risk Investment Model
    Utilizing our country expertise, sector analysis, and granular risk scores we can forecasts and measure the expected financial impact different types of risk will have on cash flows and investment returns and activities.
  • Healthcare
    Our life sciences team can help you develop trusted plans that take into account new market entry plans, drug pricing, disease prevalence and burden, essential workforce planning, and hospital operational models.
Custom Solutions
  • Integrity Due Diligence
    A commercial view on any possible risks you could face with a new partner, as well as an assessment of the company’s key strengths and weaknesses.
  • Stakeholder Influence Mapping
    An independent assessment of which risks are likely to serve as priorities for potential investors and examples from other jurisdictions on how these risks have impacted inward investment.
  • Economic Impact
    Do you need to demonstrate a positive jobs and economic impact? We provide comprehensive assessments that quantify and clearly articulate the economic ripple effect (on jobs, tax revenues, etc.) arising from changes to the status quo.
  • Government Revenue
    Quantify how economic and policy changes impact your jurisdictions’ capacity to plan, budget and deliver vital public services

Experts

Natznet Tesfay

Her areas of specialization include analysis of political developments affecting the offshore energy sector in West Africa, particularly Nigeria; commercial developments, especially in mining, energy, and infrastructure in East Africa; and piracy risks in the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Guinea. Natznet leads the development of the Africa risk indicator and horizon scanning infrastructure, drawing on a range of methodologies such as geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. She supports business growth across the continent, advising C-level executives on market entry, stakeholder engagement and risk management, and African governments on leveraging their natural resource potential for sustained economic growth. In 2017, Natznet was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum.Natznet regularly speaks in major media outlets and at high-level conferences. Previously, at Exclusive Analysis she managed the Africa intelligence team of in-country analysts and sources, as well as Exclusive Analysis's Johannesburg office. She also advised municipal governments on sustainably developing megacities and national governments on the development of free trade zones, foreign policy and the mining sector in East Africa. Natznet degrees include a BA in Government from Harvard University and a MSc in Urbanization and Development from the London School of Economics.

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Carlos Cardenas

Carlos, Director of Latin America Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting, is responsible for the generation of commercially relevant political and violent risks forecasts for a variety of sectors in Latin America, including energy, manufacturing, mining and insurance. He manages a team of Latin American experts, as well as a remote network of contributors based in the region, covering risks such as expropriation, non-payment, contract frustration, civil unrest, business disruption and security-related risks (extortion, kidnapping, crime and terrorism). Carlos has also worked and delivered numerous consulting projects for a variety of clients interested in understanding the role of stakeholders and risks at the project level in Latin America. His areas of expertise include petroleum policy and economics, public governance in natural resource rich countries, international relations, criminal dynamics in Latin America and political economy.He holds a BA in International Studies from Universidad Central de Venezuela (Magna Cum-Laude), an MA in International Political Economy from Birmingham University (distinction) and an LLM in Petroleum Law and Policy (distinction) from Dundee University.

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Keerti Rajan

The Integrated Research team works with our experts to combine proprietary data and insights from across economics, country risk, and industry teams to create holistic, forward-looking analysis that helps our clients make effective business decisions. He has previously led the Asia-Pacific desk and the Political Risk desk for our Country Risk team where he was responsible for the global calibration of political and business risks and development of the Country Risk team's methodology. He assessed systemic credit and liquidity risks to UK financial stability for the Bank of England; built stochastic models to forecast capital adequacy for financial companies at Moore Stephens Consulting; and worked in RBS's equity derivatives business.He earned a Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Cambridge with a thesis on the social epidemiology of income inequality in India. His previous academic work compared Indonesia and Malaysia during the Asian Financial Crisis.

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Anna Boyd

She was previously the head of MENA corporate investigations at FTI Consulting where she managed many complex multi-jurisdictional matters in the field of integrity due diligence, asset tracing and litigation support, including in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Libya.Prior to her move into consulting, she was head of the Middle East and North Africa Country Risk Forecasting team at S&P Global, responsible for political risk forecasting, scenario modelling and quantitative risk scoring across the whole region. Anna has led on projects including devising a political risk model relating to the security of Qatari food imports, managing a series of in-depth MENA region country studies for a US government client, and war-gaming possible future developments in the Syria conflict. She has provided expert comment to several media outlets including Al Jazeera, Reuters and the BBC. Anna started her career as an Arabic linguist with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.Anna holds an MA with Distinction in Arabic from the School of Oriental and African Studies, having written her dissertation on 1950s-60s Iraqi poetry. She also holds a 1st class honors degree in Arabic from the University of Edinburgh and studied in Cairo and Damascus. She speaks French and Arabic.

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Karim El Assir

As a member of the Economics & Country Risk consulting team, Karim is responsible for advising clients on strategies to build and scale business abroad, particularly in emerging markets. He also provides guidance around understanding the political and operating landscape of markets in the Middle East and Africa and assessing and mitigating counterparty risk to support mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures. He joined S&P Global from KPMG, where he led the MENA desk on its Corporate Intelligence team, providing clients with advisory services in the region. These included helping to develop new market entry strategies, gathering on-the-ground intelligence to assess the extent of a company's exposure to a variety of non-financial risks, and managing compliance and reputational crises post-market entry. His previous professional background is in political risk. Prior to joining KPMG, he helped start a political and economic risk consultancy based in Cairo, where he led the firm's research on the political environments of several Middle Eastern states.Karim has degrees from the School of Oriental and African Studies in London and the University College of Maastricht, and has lived and worked in Egypt, Germany, Morocco, the Netherlands and Saudi Arabia.

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Mohsen Bonakdarpour

Mohsen is Executive Director of consulting in S&P Global Market Intelligence, working on macroeconomic and industry economics since 1986. He brings more than 30 years of experience in macroeconomic, regional, and industry consulting with a strong focus on scenario analysis, economic impact assessments, and applications of market planning. Mohsen has been responsible for development of a detailed regional application (Business Market Insights) and global information and communication technology capability. He has expertise in regional economic impact assessment and is fluent in relevant modeling tools to a wide array of issues and policies.Mohsen worked as a partner with Cisco's Global Market Intelligence group to build a model to estimate total addressable market for network technologies and services. The model has become on the forefront of strategic marketing initiative for Cisco via their global market view model and database.Mohsen was the project manager for series of large scale energy related projects including Crude Oil Export Decision - the Fact-based study and analysis played an important role in lifting the ban, Americas New Energy Future - studies had an extraordinary impact at a time of debate over future of shale and was cited in Presidential State of the Union Address, and Restarting the Engine in US Gulf of Mexico - client used the research to have BOEMER accelerate licensing process in the Gulf of Mexico.Mohsen holds an M.A. in Economics and a B.S. in Economics and Computer Science from Temple University.

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Jim Diffley

Formerly chief economist of S&P Global US Regional Services Group, he was responsible for the Regional Core Macroeconomic Service and the Global Insight Real Estate and Construction Service. Since 1998, Jim has supervised the quarterly economic forecast of the 50 states and over 300 metropolitan areas of the United States. He regularly makes presentations of these regional economic forecasts and analysis to clients, conferences, governmental bodies and the press.Jim is now responsible for customized consulting projects, specializing in public finance. These have included long-term projections of cigarette consumption, forecasts of capital gains realizations, analysis of the economic impact of the securities industry on New York State, analysis of the impact of changing oil prices on local economies and the economic impact of various facility locations.Jim's academic work in the US includes a Bachelor of Arts in Mathematics & Economics from State University of New York at Buffalo, a Master of Arts in Economics and a doctorate (ABD) at the State University of New York. From 1982 to 1987, he was on the economics faculty at Adelphi University, US.

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Chris Varvares

Chris has nearly 40 years of experience in macroeconomic modeling, forecasting and policy analysis, as co-head of US Economics at IHS Markit (Now a part of S&P Global), in his previous role as a principal of Macroeconomic Advisers and as a member of the staff of the President's Council of Economic Advisers (1981-1982); he served as a member of the US delegation to the OECD in April 1982. Macroeconomic Advisers was acquired by IHS Markit in 2017.He and the IHS Markit (Now a part of S&P Global) US economic principals serve as consultants to key agencies of the US and foreign governments, major trade associations, and private corporations, and are widely quoted in the business and financial media. IHS Markit (Now a part of S&P Global) is widely recognized as among the most accurate forecasters of the US economy. Chris is a recent past president and a former director of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). He served as president of the NABE Gateway chapter in St.Louis and is a member of the American Economic Association.He serves as a member of the New York State Economic and Revenue Advisory Board and has participated in the meetings of the Outside Consultants to the CBO, has been a panelist for the World Economic Forum, and he sits on advisory boards for the Olin Business School at Washington University and the Walker School of Business and Technology at Webster University. Chris holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from The George Washington University and received his graduate training (ABD) in Economics from Washington University in St. Louis, where he was also a member of the adjunct faculty in both the economics department and the Olin School of Business. He serves as a member of the New York State Economic and Revenue Advisory Board and has participated in the meetings of the Outside Consultants to the CBO, has been a panelist for the World Economic Forum, and he sits on advisory boards for the Olin Business School at Washington University and the Walker School of Business and Technology at Webster University.Chris holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from The George Washington University and received his graduate training (ABD) in Economics from Washington University in St. Louis, where he was also a member of the adjunct faculty in both the economics department and the Olin School of Business.

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Jonathan Ablett

Jonathan leads the S&P Global Market Intelligence team in charge of scenario design and new macroeconomic and sectoral economic models. As part of this work, he helps develop customized macroeconomic scenarios for due diligence, regulatory stress tests, impact analysis, and strategic planning purposes. He leads the team that implements these scenarios, operates the proprietary macroeconomic model, and designs new models for additional client purposes.Prior to joining IHS Markit (now part of S&P Global), Jonathan was an Expert at the McKinsey Global Institute, the think tank of McKinsey and Company, where he specialized in applied economic and strategic analysis for both private and public sector clients. Prior to joining McKinsey, he worked at the Massachusetts House Ways & Means Committee developing budget and policy recommendations and the World Bank.Jonathan holds an M.A. in Economics from McGill University and an M.B.A. from Babson College.

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Ken Wattret

Ken has worked as an economist in the financial markets since the early 1990s, initially for HSBC Global Markets. From 2000 onwards, he was the chief market economist for the euro area at BNP Paribas. Prior to joining IHS Markit (now part of S&P Global) in 2018, he was a Managing Director of Global Macro at TS Lombard, an independent research provider. A specialist in European economic and policy issues, his 'out of consensus' calls include predicting as early as 2012 that euro area deflation risk would force the European Central Bank to embark on a program of large-scale sovereign debt purchases despite strong opposition within many member states. He has taken a lead role in the presentation of key forecasts and themes to a broad spectrum of clients across Europe, the Americas and Asia, including corporates, banks and institutional and hedge fund-based portfolio managers. A well-known commentator on economic and financial issues, Ken is frequently quoted in the media and appears on various TV and radio channels.He received his honors degree in economics from the University of Sheffield, UK, and post-graduate qualifications from the Chartered Institute of Bankers.

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Rajiv Biswas

Rajiv previously worked as Director for South-East Asia for The Economist Group. His previous experience includes working for UBS as Executive Director for Asia-Pacific Country Risk and for the Royal Bank of Scotland as an international economist. He has also worked for an international organization, the Commonwealth Secretariat, as a senior economist in the International Capital Markets Department. Rajiv's experience also includes working as a consultant for the United Nations and the Asian Development Bank.Rajiv is a graduate of the London School of Economics, for the B.Sc.Econ. Hons. in Economics, and received his M.Sc. and D.I.C. from Imperial College at London University. Rajiv has published widely on a range of economic, trade and investment related topics, with over 100 published articles. He frequently speaks at international conferences on the global and Asia-Pacific economies, including at World Economic Forum and Euromoney events as well as at United Nations conferences. He regularly appears on international TV programs, including for the BBC, CNBC, Bloomberg, Channel News Asia, CNN and Al Jazeera TV.Rajiv is the author of "Future Asia", published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2013, "Asian Megatrends" published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2016 and "Emerging Markets Megatrends" published by Springer/Palgrave Macmillan in 2018.

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Michael Dall

Michael authors the weekly Materials Price Index (MPI) which analyzes the price movements and events impacting a key collection of globally traded manufacturing inputs. He is also responsible for the detailed coverage of chemicals and plastic prices with an emphasis on forecasting.He regularly participates in webinars and client events presenting the global outlook for commodity prices. With over 15 years experience as an economist in the real estate, construction and commodities sector he supports major corporations to understand the cost environment. Michael holds an undergraduate degree in Business Economics and a Master of Science in Economics from the University of Strathclyde.

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