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Economics

Post-Pandemic Geopolitics and Economic Solutions

Gain a better understanding of the post-pandemic geopolitical impact, the global economy and specific geographies and sectors

The Covid-19 pandemic is now a long-term planning reality. Corporations and businesses are shifting their focus from the initial crisis management led response phase of the pandemic (focusing on safety and security of personnel and assets), towards a more strategic review of business resilience and strategy. Are you ready? Our Economics & Country Risk experts are uniquely positioned to help you evaluate situations, exposures, specific opportunities or ventures in light of new and evolving global challenges.

How IHS Markit can support your business

Scenario analysis for crisis management and strategic planning

Whether we are looking at a health crisis, a natural disaster, or political upheaval, our team will develop specific scenario narratives and pathways for policy responses, economic shifts, and industry challenges. We offer insights into the dynamics relevant for your geographies and sectors of interest enabling you to set a steady path forward amidst uncertainty.


Working closely with you to explore relevant scenarios and impacts

  • Scenarios workshop
    2 hours led by our economists, country risk and industry experts. The workshop convenes senior leadership representatives from across your business to ensure all perspectives are captured. The workshop would include a brief presentation of our Geopolitical Scenarios for 2025, followed by a brainstorming session to identify your top concerns in terms of business impacts, before exploring geopolitical and industry themes and indicators leading to these.
  • Customized scenario reports and pathways and impacts
    Based on insights captured during the workshop, we will build up to three bespoke macro-level 5-year scenarios, with associated sets of geopolitical and industry indicators to monitor, and qualitative and quantitative assessment of impacts, for approval by your team before delivery in a final report.
  • Quarterly update reports
    To help you track developments and which scenario is becoming more likely, we provide quarterly update reports in the following 12-month period containing alerts and analysis of which indicators have been triggered that are relevant to the scenarios and associated impacts.

Opportunity assessments

Evaluate specific opportunities or ventures in light of new and evolving global challenges. Work with us to understand how politics, economics and industry dynamics will affect the opportunity at hand – any risks introduced by the pandemic and the impacts it is generating, and how to quantify these effectively. We take an intelligence-led approach to new market entry enabling you to businesses build new ventures and scale them in emerging markets. 

Support can include

  • Customized reports for emerging markets
    Deep dives on the emerging markets you identify as core to your market entry plans. We provide actionable insights into the stakeholder and competitive landscape, untapped industry and regulatory trends to exploit, quantifying and qualifying new opportunities, and comparative benchmarking of similar markets in a region. Our analysis is always forward-looking, taking critical challenges like the pandemic into account.
  • Risk quantification
    We identify and quantify future challenges to new ventures in emerging markets with a focus on macrosystemic market risks, barriers to entry, and compliance/regulatory risks. We can translate country-level risks into likely impact on project cashflow, NPV and IRR. Learn more.
  • Business partner vetting in emerging markets Our consulting team specializes in stakeholder and third-party vetting specifically in relation to their integrity/reputational profile and their track record of operation in a particular market.
  • Executive, governmental and public-facing reports and presentations
    Our experts can provide public facing materials that communicate the benefit of your investment in a particular market to government and the wider public. Rigorous social and economic impact analysis underpins these and provide an objective expert view.

Expert briefings

Our experts across geopolitics, economics and industry, and life sciences track global developments and indicators on a daily basis to form views on what it all means for our clients. 

Support can include

  • Executive workshops and custom presentations
    Executive team workshops and presentations to inform decision makings, help untangle the significance and impacts of global developments booked directly with our consulting team. Book now
  • Expert Connect
    Shorter single-issue discussions or meetings can be booked through Expert Connect

Built on a foundation of excellence in custom solutions, modelling, and scenario creation

Scenarios
  • Geopolitical
    Anchored in our geopolitics expertise our team will develop scenarios that help set a plan for growth and resilience
  • Industry Scenario Service
    Our experts can help you understand which  industries and geographies will feel the consequences of an economic or geopolitical incident
  • Economic Scenarios
    Understand the effect of changes in commodity prices, exchange rates, monetary and financial policy, energy prices, demographics and more as you build your new strategic plans.
  • Financial
    Utilizing our deep knowledge of the financial industry, economic drivers, and risk profiles, we can help you quantify your total risk profile, conduct rigorous stress tests, provide transparency, and promote confidence.
Modelling
  • Country Risk Investment Model
    Utilizing our country expertise, sector analysis, and granular risk scores we can forecasts and measure the expected financial impact different types of risk will have on cash flows and investment returns and activities.
  • Healthcare
    Our life sciences team can help you develop trusted plans that take into account new market entry plans, drug pricing, disease prevalence and burden, essential workforce planning, and hospital operational models.
Custom Solutions
  • Integrity Due Diligence
    A commercial view on any possible risks you could face with a new partner, as well as an assessment of the company’s key strengths and weaknesses.
  • Stakeholder Influence Mapping
    An independent assessment of which risks are likely to serve as priorities for potential investors and examples from other jurisdictions on how these risks have impacted inward investment.
  • Economic Impact
    Do you need to demonstrate a positive jobs and economic impact? We provide comprehensive assessments that quantify and clearly articulate the economic ripple effect (on jobs, tax revenues, etc.) arising from changes to the status quo.
  • Government Revenue
    Quantify how economic and policy changes impact your jurisdictions’ capacity to plan, budget and deliver vital public services

Experts

Natznet Tesfay

Her areas of specialization include analysis of political developments affecting the offshore energy sector in West Africa, particularly Nigeria; commercial developments, especially in mining, energy, and infrastructure in East Africa; and piracy risks in the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Guinea. Ms. Tesfay leads the development of the Africa risk indicator and horizon scanning infrastructure, drawing on a range of methodologies such as geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. Natznet supports business growth across the continent, advising C-level executives on market entry, stakeholder engagement and risk management, and African governments on leveraging their natural resource potential for sustained economic growth. In 2017, Natznet was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. She regularly speaks in major media outlets and at high-level conferences. Previously, at Exclusive Analysis she managed the Africa intelligence team of in-country analysts and sources, as well as Exclusive Analysis's Johannesburg office. She also advised municipal governments on sustainably developing megacities and national governments on the development of free trade zones, foreign policy and the mining sector in East Africa. Ms. Tesfay's degrees include a BA in Government from Harvard University and a MSc in Urbanization and Development from the London School of Economics.

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Carlos Cardenas

Carlos Cardenas, Director of Latin America Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting, is responsible for the generation of commercially relevant political and violent risks forecasts for a variety of sectors in Latin America, including energy, manufacturing, mining and insurance. He manages a team of Latin American experts, as well as a remote network of contributors based in the region, covering risks such as expropriation, non-payment, contract frustration, civil unrest, business disruption and security-related risks (extortion, kidnapping, crime and terrorism). Mr. Cardenas has also worked and delivered numerous consulting projects for a variety of clients interested in understanding the role of stakeholders and risks at the project level in Latin America. His areas of expertise include petroleum policy and economics, public governance in natural resource rich countries, international relations, criminal dynamics in Latin America and political economy. He holds a BA in International Studies from Universidad Central de Venezuela (Magna Cum-Laude), an MA in International Political Economy from Birmingham University (distinction) and an LLM in Petroleum Law and Policy (distinction) from Dundee University.

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Firas Modad

Mr. Modad focuses on the conflict between Turkey, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia and how it shapes security and political risks in the region and terrorism risks in the West. He has also studied the rise of Islamist militant and non-militant groups, their ideology, their capabilities and their communication strategies. Currently, he is focused on the risk of another wave of unrest in MENA, the migrant flows it would trigger and its impact on terrorism. Mr. Modad has briefed executives and directors in insurance the insurance and energy sectors, as well as C-level executives at blue chip firms with interests and operations in MENA. He has helped clients understand the rise of the Islamic State, the conflicts in Libya, Syria and Iraq, risks in Egypt and the conflict between Israel, Iran and the Arabs. Mr. Modad also makes regular appearances on the media, and has been interviewed by Reuters, Bloomberg, the BBC, CNN, ABC News, and others. Mr. Modad holds a Bachelor of Arts in economics from the American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon, and a Master of Science in International Management for the Middle East and North Africa from the University of London in the United Kingdom.

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Keerti Rajan

The Integrated Research team works with our experts to combine proprietary data and insights from across economics, country risk, and industry teams to create holistic, forward-looking analysis that helps our clients make effective business decisions. Keerti has previously led the Asia-Pacific desk and the Political Risk desk for our Country Risk team where he was responsible for the global calibration of political and business risks and development of the Country Risk team's methodology. Before joining IHS Markit, he assessed systemic credit and liquidity risks to UK financial stability for the Bank of England; built stochastic models to forecast capital adequacy for financial companies at Moore Stephens Consulting; and worked in RBS's equity derivatives business. Keerti earned a Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Cambridge with a thesis on the social epidemiology of income inequality in India. His previous academic work compared Indonesia and Malaysia during the Asian Financial Crisis.

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Nathalie Wlodarczyk, Ph.D.

Her team is responsible for delivering forward-looking political, industry and economic assessments for government and private sector clients to support strategic planning and business growth. Dr. Wlodarczyk has more than 15 years of experience working on both methodology development and assessment delivery for Economics and Country Risk, as well as forecasts in the private and public sectors. She has supported clients on market entry and risk management for emerging markets for over a decade and has led projects across Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. She adds particular expertise in analyzing cultural drivers of behavior and decision-making, in particular for mapping of influence groups and dynamics. Dr. Wlodarczyk has a background working in building capacity for conflict resolution in locations with civil conflict, often in Africa. Formerly she was head of Africa Forecasting for Exclusive Analysis, now part of IHS Markit. She has written several articles and book chapters about the impact of belief and culture on behavior in conflict, and she is the author of the book, "Magic and Warfare: Appearance and reality in contemporary African conflict and beyond," published in the US by Palgrave Macmillian. Dr. Wlodarczyk has taught contemporary security issues at UK universities, including the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, and King's College London (KCL). Dr. Wlodarczyk attained her Ph.D. in War Studies at KCL, and she holds a Bachelor of Science and a Master of Science in International Relations from London School of Economics (LSE), United Kingdom.

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