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North American Energy Forecasts, Strategic Analysis & Insights by Fuel

This service delivers an integrated view of power, gas, coal and renewable energy markets in North America. Find US and Canadian energy market fundamentals, growth forecasts, capital costs, competitive benchmarking and long-term strategic analysis. Topical insights into the North American power grid, power generation infrastructure, regulation, technology and other key issues ensure you keep pace with evolving market trends.

Key benefits:

  • Support your strategic planning and investment processes
  • Anticipate shifts in policy, regulation, technology and markets
  • Gain a long-term view of regional energy markets

What’s Included

North American Power
  • Comprehensive power outlook to 2040 for six regions, with primers on 21 power markets, each with its own report and one single overview report. Concepts covered include:
    • Underlying economic indicators
    • Power demand
    • New supply cost characteristics
    • Generating capacity retirements and additions
    • Average capacity factor of generation supply across fuels/technologies
    • Fossil fuel prices at relevant delivery points
    • Emission allowance prices
    • Wholesale power prices
    • Spark and dark spreads
    • Implied heat rates
    • Capacity values
  • Updated outlook on wholesale power prices, spreads and implied heat rates reflecting the latest fossil fuel price outlooks
  • Announced coal plant retirements, pollution control retrofit projects and conventional power plant transactions
  • Outlook to 2025 for all elements of power plant capital costs, including equipment, steel, engineering and procurement, electrical cabling, construction labor, and other construction and civil engineering costs
  • Recent trends report, including a near-term update to the cost trend forecast


Solar and natural gas led recent annual capacity additions; nuclear and gas accounted for most recent retirements in California

North American Gas

  • Report on short-term market drivers and trends, including data set and:
    • Forecasts to 2040 for natural gas monthly pricing (Henry Hub and 29 key pricing points)
    • Storage
    • Supply/demand balances
    • Pipeline flows
    • Play-level unit cost
    • Production
    • Drilling activity
  • Individual regional market reports with data sets and supply/demand balances
  • Two-week outlook for US lower-48 storage injections and withdrawals, with analysis of impact on natural gas prices
  • List of newly announced pipeline expansion projects in US Northeast, Midwest and Southeast/US Gulf Coast regions, and eastern Canada, including:
    • Estimated capital costs
    • Project scope (e.g., additional pipeline and/or compression)
    • Transportation capacity costs
  • Report on the market outlook to 2025
  • Report on the market outlook to 2040


IHS Markit expects prices as of July 2018 to move above year-earlier levels—in contrast to the lower prices year over year in February–June 2018.

North American Coal
  • Strategic reports/market briefings on the North American steam coal market
  • Industry-best supply/demand balance sheet, broken out nationally and on a basin-by-basin basis, with monthly and annual numbers, covering:
    • Thermal and met coal production
    • Thermal and met coal exports by port
    • Thermal imports
    • Utility and industrial demand
    • Stockpile outlook for each basin
  • Five-year outlook for US steam coal spot prices, historical US and international steam coal spot market prices, and average prices for coal delivered to US power plants
  • Quarterly review of supply and demand in key coal markets in North and South America
  • Quarterly review of short-term supply/demand forecasts for major importing and exporting countries


US thermal coal exports by destination, 2010-2018

North American Renewables
  • Quarterly updates:
    • Renewable policy developments
    • Offtake contracts
    • M&A transactions
    • Development activity
    • Regional REC supply/demand balances
    • 10-year outlooks
  • State-level build projections through 2030 for wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, small hydro and ocean energy markets
  • Technology cost outlooks through 2030 for wind, utility, distributed solar PV and battery storage technologies
  • Project-by-project breakdown of the top wind and solar asset owners and their recent activity
  • Analysis following key market activity, policy developments, contract announcements, M&A, and competitive activity
  • Annual review of M&A activity and trends by technologies and owners


Installed renewable capacity is forecast to exceed 400 GW in North America by 2040.

North American Scenarios
  • Comprehensive modeling results to 2040 for 21 power markets across three distinct scenarios (Rivalry, Autonomy, Vertigo), with regional and national natural gas market fundamentals and data tables featuring country and regional gas supply/demand balances.
  • Coverage includes:
    • Underlying economic indicators
    • Power demand
    • New supply cost characteristics
    • Generating capacity retirements and additions
    • Average capacity factor of generation supply across fuels/technologies
    • Fossil fuel prices at relevant delivery points
    • Emission allowance prices
    • Wholesale power prices
    • Spark and dark spreads
    • Implied heat rates
    • Capacity values
  • Annual and monthly gas demand outlooks by sector, power market region, and US census district; LNG and pipeline import and export outlooks; and gas price outlooks for Henry Hub, AECO-NIT, and 28 major North American gas market hubs (monthly and annual prices)
  • Summary report providing details on scenario assumptions, key results, and insights
  • Narrative reports summarizing each scenario, issued once every three to four years when the scenarios are reevaluated
PGCR 2018 webinar series

Sample topics:

  • Pipeline infrastructure expectations for North American gas
  • Wholesale power price suppression in North America
  • The impact of coal plant retirements in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas on scarcity pricing
  • A long-term North American gas outlook
  • The evolving relationship between batteries and renewables in US power markets
  • The impact of coal plant retirements in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas on scarcity pricing
  • Indian coal imports outlook
  • North American power and renewables: Outlook highlights
  • Unpacking the cost of renewables
Country Coverage
  • United States
  • Canada

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