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Light and Heavy Naphtha Service

Comprehensive global naphtha market analysis to inform trading, purchase/sale strategies and capacity investment decisions

Oversupply of NA unconventional crude oil and natural gas has increased exports of most hydrocarbons and has impacted global oil and refined/petchem products prices. Slowdown in Asian demand and capital investments has resulted in large drop in prices of all the commodities and weaker international trade. In 2015, Light Naphtha oversupplied. But now most of the petrochemical feedstocks will be oversupplied in the mid-term, negatively impacting Naphtha prices. As the most important petrochemical feedstock and important gasoline blendstock, naphtha supply, demand and prices are impacting refining and petrochemical margins and strategic investments decisions in new assets.

This analysis integrates deep IHS expertise in crude refining, condensate splitting, natural gas processing, aromatics, and olefins and helps you:

  • Understand the divergent trends in gasoline and petrochemical and diluent demand in different countries and regions
  • Understand the options for refineries to meet rapidly growing demand through yield changes and how crude quality is only part of the solution
  • Develop strategies to buy/sell naphtha based on changes in trade volumes of different naphtha qualities necessary to supply high-growth markets with available, if distant, supplies
  • Evaluate regional naphtha pricing dynamics for both light & heavy grades & how much different demand sectors will pay for naphtha
  • Develop feedstock diversification strategy by understanding how the alternative feedstocks such as coal, natural gas & NGLs impact naphtha
  • Inquiry privileges for discussions with IHS Naphtha experts
Find the chemical market research and analysis you need

IHS Chemical Expert Premasish Das Discusses Petrochemical Feedstock Trends

Analysis Coverage

Analysis Features:

  • Proprietary methodology estimates “true” naphtha balances accounting for estimated internal use
  • Utilizes integrated IHS Markit refining and petrochemical analysis and databases
  • Reconciles separate light and heavy naphtha in supply, demand and trade data 
  • Provides price estimates of heavy reforming naphtha in Europe and Asia 
  • Defines price-setting mechanisms through a full price tier analysis

This analysis helps strategy, operation and planning managers from around the world:

  • How will the increasing unconventional oil & gas production change the global feedstocks market? Will NGLs continue to provide substantial supply growth or wane? How does tight oil help (or not) with long-term light and heavy supplies?
  • What is the outlook for petrochemical naphtha demand in face of evolving plastics sustainably policies?
  • Will the refining system be capable of providing needed naphtha supplies from traditional refinery streams or is on-purpose investment needed and in which markets is this expected to happen?
  • How will gasoline demand be affected by change in mobility and powertrains (e.g. more Electric Vehicles, ride sharing, autonomous vehicles)?
  • How to supply China’s petrochemical demand when fuels demand begins to decline?
  • What is driving the prices of light and heavy naphtha in different markets? How will they change over the forecast period?
Scope of Work
  • Market Analysis Report by region discussing: key issues, market fundamentals, and trends
  • Supply/Demand Annual Balances by country and region (2010–2040)
    • Production from petroleum refining, natural gas processing and condensate splitting
    • Demand from aromatics (benzene, toluene, xylene) and olefins (ethylene, propylene, butadiene)
    • Fuel-driven demand for gasoline and crude blending
    • Imports and exports by country
    • Supply/Demand are fully itemized by category (crude distillation, hydrocracking, etc.)
    • Balances include total production and consumption, not just what is sold/bought on the market
  • Price Forecasts for the US Gulf Coast, Western Europe, Middle East, South & North-East Asia
  • Production Capabilities and operating rates for light and heavy naphtha
    • Trade - Annual
      • Supply / demand balances include imports and exports by country
      • 10x10 inter-regional trade tables at 5-yr intervals (2010, '15, '20, '25,'30, 35’, 40)
  • Price Tier Economics by end-use and region with the price setting rationale and breakevens
  • Onsite presentations available for additional fee

This service provides:

  • A full set of narratives about underlying market fundamentals, developments and trends (long term annual outlook, once a year)
  • Online access to full spreadsheet file data sets
    • S/D balances (once a year)
    • Trade (once a year)
    • Prices (quarterly updates of annual prices)
  • Access to IHS Markit naphtha experts, who can provide additional explanation about market fundamentals and trends discussed in the review (for a year)
  • Enterprise wide access for clients


Debnil Chowdhury

Mr. Chowdhury leads the team of analysts responsible for short and long-term downstream refined product supply, demand, and margin outlooks for North and Latin America. Since joining IHS Markit in 2012, he initially led the North American natural gas liquids team where he created IHS Markit's proprietary long-term ethane analytics price, supply, and demand forecast model. The model can be utilized to quantitatively link and provide insight on ethane supply/demand to long-term pricing and is utilized by clients to make large capital decisions for petrochemical assets globally.In his current role in refining, Mr. Chowdhury and his team focus on refined product market forecasting and price forecasting. He led the IHS Markit Light and Heavy Naphtha service creating the proprietary refining, NGL, petrochemical supply, demand, and price forecasting models for the service. Recently, Mr. Chowdhury was instrumental in the development IHS Markit's views of supply, demand, and refinery rationalization during the COVID-19 crisis and continues on-going work to aid clients to navigate market fluctuations due to the virus.In addition to his research responsibilities, Mr. Chowdhury has been involved in several consulting projects for refined product market, pricing, and new market entry strategy studies for clients in the U.S Gulf Coast, Eastern U.S., Atlantic Basin, Caribbean, Latin America, Europe, CIS, Africa, Middle East, and Asian markets. Additionally, he has worked closely with private equity and upstream clients to perform project feasibility studies for various oil and gas assets. Mr. Chowdhury has evaluated potential merger, acquisition, and divestiture opportunities. His work included screening of potential assets, specific facility evaluations, and due diligence activities.Prior to joining IHS Markit, he was a Senior Market Analyst for Valero where he provided strategic planning and market analysis support for downstream, renewable, and retail assets globally. Mr. Chowdhury also worked as a Process Engineer for KBR, Bechtel, and the US government where he worked with clients domestically and globally to develop new refining, chemical, and nuclear technologies. Mr. Chowdhury holds a BS in Chemical Engineering and Certificate in International Affairs from the Georgia Institute of Technology, a MS in Predictive Analytics and Data Science from Northwestern University, and an MBA from Rice University.

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