Light and Heavy Naphtha: International Market Analysis

Fully integrated in-depth analysis of global markets for light and heavy naphtha including long-term supply, demand, trade and price forecasts

Oversupply of NA unconventional crude oil and natural gas has increased exports of most hydrocarbons and has impacted global oil and refined/petchem products prices. Slowdown in Asian demand and capital investments has resulted in large drop in prices of all the commodities and weaker international trade. In 2015, Light Naphtha oversupplied. But now most of the petrochemical feedstocks will be oversupplied in the mid-term, negatively impacting Naphtha prices. As the most important petrochemical feedstock and important gasoline blendstock, naphtha supply, demand and prices are impacting refining and petrochemical margins and strategic investments decisions in new assets.

This analysis integrates deep IHS expertise in crude refining, condensate splitting, natural gas processing, aromatics, and olefins and helps you:

  • Understand gasoline and petrochemical demand growth in different regions, and whether those regions will have adequate amount of naphtha production to meet increased demand
  • See anticipated changes in trade routes and volumes of different naphtha qualities, and develop long term strategy about where to buy / sell naphtha
  • Understand regional naphtha pricing dynamics for both light and heavy grades and how much different demand segments, like gasoline, will be able to pay for naphtha
  • Make key decisions on regions to invest in or regions to reduce exposure by understanding naphtha production capability in different locations
  • Develop your company feedstock diversification strategy by understanding how the increased utilization of coal, natural gas and its liquids is impacting naphtha
  • Inquiry privileges for discussions with IHS Naphtha experts

IHS Chemical Expert Nick Rados Discusses Petrochemical Feedstock Trends

Analysis Coverage

This analysis:

  • Differentiates light and heavy naphtha in supply, demand and trade data
  • Aggregates supply of light and heavy naphtha from all different sources
  • Reconciles interregional trade separately for light and heavy naphtha
  • Provides price forecasts of light and heavy naphtha in five main regions
  • Defines price-setting mechanisms through a full price tier analysis

This analysis helps strategy, operation and planning managers from around the world understand:

  • Where will all the shale Naphtha from US go?
  • How is the oversupply of high RVP natural gasoline impacting US gasoline blending and US Naphtha export?
  • Where can I find cargos of US natural gasoline for export to Asia crackers?
  • What is the impact of increased ethane and LPG cracking on the Naphtha balances and prices?
  • Why is the short term Naphtha crack spread high when Light Naphtha is oversupplied?
  • Why is the current relative price of Heavy Naphtha low, despite tight supply/demand balance?
  • Why has octane cost (reformate) remained so high?
Scope of Work
  • Market Analysis Report
    • 10 regions and 20 major countries, discussing: key issues, market fundamentals, and trends
    • Long-term view of market with 15-year outlook (from 2010 to 2030)
    • Supply/Demand Annual Balances for world of 80 "countries" (2010–2030)
    • Production from petroleum refining, natural gas processing and condensate splitting
    • Demand from aromatics (benzene, toluene, xylene) and olefins (ethylene, propylene, butadiene)
    • Fuel-driven demand for gasoline and crude blending
    • Supply/Demand are fully itemized by category (crude distillation, hydrocracking, etc.)
    • Balances include total production and consumption, not just what is sold/bought on the market
  • Production Capabilities and operating rates for light and heavy naphtha
    • Trade - Annual
      • Supply / demand balances include imports and exports by country
      • 10x10 inter-regional trade tables at 5-yr intervals (2010, '15, '20, '25 and '30)
  • Price Forecasts and Price Setting Mechanisms - Annual
    • US Gulf Coast, West Europe, Arab Gulf, Southeast and Northeast Asia (from 2010 to 2030)
  • Price Tier Economics by end-use and region with the price setting rationale
Deliverables

This service provides:

  • A full set of narratives about underlying market fundamentals, developments and trends (long term annual outlook, once a year)
  • Online access to full spreadsheet file data sets
    • S/D balances (once a year)
    • Trade (once a year)
    • Prices (quarterly updates of annual prices)
  • Access to IHS Markit naphtha experts, who can provide additional explanation about market fundamentals and trends discussed in the review (for a year)
  • Enterprise wide access for clients
Download Brochure & Prospectus Experts
Nick Rados

Nick Rados, Ph.D – Global Business Director, Chemical Feedstocks
Nick is responsible for IHS Markit business and expertize in the area of chemical feedstocks, including effects of current and anticipated changes in petroleum refining and gas plant operations onto aromatics and olefins chemicals. Nick joined IHS Markit in 2013, with 20 years of experience in the chemical and petroleum refining industries. His experience includes a 10 year tenure with ExxonMobil, working on a variety of refining and petrochemical assignments involving: business strategy, capital investment, operations improvement, competitive intelligence and technology licensing. Nick has a Doctorate in Chemical Engineering from Washington University in St. Louis and Executive Business Training from Northwestern University and the University of North Carolina.

Debnil Chowdhury

Debnil Chowdhury – Director, Natural Gas Liquids Research
Debnil is the primary author of the North American NGLs research service and is responsible for global feedstocks pricing. He has also directed a number of refined product and NGLs, pricing, and market entry strategy studies for clients. He is the primary creator of the IHS Markit proprietary long-term ethane analytics price forecast model, which can be used to provide insight on and quantitatively link ethane supply/demand to long-term pricing. Prior to IHS Markit, he worked at Valero as a Senior Market Analyst, responsible for strategic planning and market analysis support for downstream, renewable, and retail assets globally and at Halliburton-KBR as a Process Engineer in Refining Technology Development. Debnil holds a BS in Chemical Engineering and Certificate in International Affairs from the Georgia Institute of Technology, MS in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University, and an Executive Certificate in Management and Leadership from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Management.

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