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Risk Management & Solutions for Investors

Gain insights on data-poor markets by understanding opportunity qualification with innovative risk management solution and pre-deal due diligence.

Investors and companies seeking to invest and grow within new markets are increasingly exposed to a complex spectrum of risks. When evaluating potential opportunities, investors need to be able to quantify risks in financial terms in order to credibly evaluate, compare, and select investment opportunities. Once an asset has been selected, investors must assess that asset’s viability by considering the potential macroeconomic contexts, and what impact that will have on the asset’s profitability. That is where most solutions stop, but we know it’s critical to monitor and review investments post-deal as well.

Our risk solutions improve the quality of investment decision-making and ongoing monitoring by providing pressure-tested macroeconomic and sector inputs, expert political analysis and scenario alternatives. Our team of 250+ economists and 80+ country risk analysts provide forecast data and quantified risk metrics globally as well as analysis and forecasts that can be applied to a specific transaction. Our dedicated risk consulting team can build custom solutions for your specific portfolios and provide a tailored view for your profile.

Solutions

Experts

Maureen Maguire, M.S.

Ms. Maguire is the practice lead for regulatory scenario and stress testing products and services. Over the past decade she has worked with financial institutions to help guide them through scenario construction and expansion. She brings significant experience as an economist from her past roles in commercial and investment banking and consulting. She joined Macroeconomic Advisers, later acquired by IHS Markit in 2017, as a Managing Director for the MacroScenario Stress Testing Services in April 2012. Prior to joining IHS Markit, she founded ThinkResearch, a business strategy and economic consulting practice. Before founding ThinkResearch, Ms. Maguire was Global Director of Research for the Financial Advisory Services Group at PwC. Ms. Maguire held positions as Vice President and Principal with Montgomery Securities in San Francisco where she led a team responsible for economic research, analysis and forecasting. Prior to joining Montgomery, Ms. Maguire was Senior Economist in the U.S. group of the Economics - Policy Research Department of the Bank of America specializing in interest rate forecasting. She has lectured in financial analysis, microeconomics and macroeconomics at the University of California at Berkeley. She is a member of the National Association for Business Economics and its New York affiliate and holds M.S. and B.S degrees in Resource Economics from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst.

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Jonathan Ablett

Mr. Ablett leads the IHS Markit team in charge of scenario design and new macroeconomic and sectoral economic models. As part of this work, he helps develop customized macroeconomic scenarios for due diligence, regulatory stress tests, impact analysis, and strategic planning purposes. He leads the team that implements these scenarios, operates the IHS Markit proprietary macroeconomic model, and designs new models for additional client purposes.Prior to joining IHS Markit, Mr. Ablett was an Expert at the McKinsey Global Institute, the think tank of McKinsey and Company, where he specialized in applied economic and strategic analysis for both private and public sector clients. Prior to joining McKinsey, Jonathan worked at the Massachusetts House Ways & Means Committee developing budget and policy recommendations and the World Bank. He holds an M.A. in Economics from McGill University and an M.B.A. from Babson College.

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Keerti Rajan

The Integrated Research team works with our experts to combine proprietary data and insights from across economics, country risk, and industry teams to create holistic, forward-looking analysis that helps our clients make effective business decisions. Keerti has previously led the Asia-Pacific desk and the Political Risk desk for our Country Risk team where he was responsible for the global calibration of political and business risks and development of the Country Risk team's methodology. Before joining IHS Markit, he assessed systemic credit and liquidity risks to UK financial stability for the Bank of England; built stochastic models to forecast capital adequacy for financial companies at Moore Stephens Consulting; and worked in RBS's equity derivatives business. Keerti earned a Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Cambridge with a thesis on the social epidemiology of income inequality in India. His previous academic work compared Indonesia and Malaysia during the Asian Financial Crisis.

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Natznet Tesfay

Her areas of specialization include analysis of political developments affecting the offshore energy sector in West Africa, particularly Nigeria; commercial developments, especially in mining, energy, and infrastructure in East Africa; and piracy risks in the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Guinea. Ms. Tesfay leads the development of the Africa risk indicator and horizon scanning infrastructure, drawing on a range of methodologies such as geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. Natznet supports business growth across the continent, advising C-level executives on market entry, stakeholder engagement and risk management, and African governments on leveraging their natural resource potential for sustained economic growth. In 2017, Natznet was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. She regularly speaks in major media outlets and at high-level conferences. Previously, at Exclusive Analysis she managed the Africa intelligence team of in-country analysts and sources, as well as Exclusive Analysis's Johannesburg office. She also advised municipal governments on sustainably developing megacities and national governments on the development of free trade zones, foreign policy and the mining sector in East Africa. Ms. Tesfay's degrees include a BA in Government from Harvard University and a MSc in Urbanization and Development from the London School of Economics.

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Alexia Ash

Ms. Ash is a quantification expert within the country risk team. She is experienced at using methods including risk indexing, stochastic processes, Bayesian modelling, and regression analysis. She was on the development team for Every Point on the Planet (EPOP), IHS Markit's flagship country risk mapping tool. She has worked on projects for private sector clients to provide probabilistic modelling of terrorist attacks by specific location and time frame; to design methodology to identify percentage probabilities for scenarios affecting food and water security in the Middle East; and to model the impact of economics and country risk on asset investments. Ms. Ash holds a Bachelor of Arts in mathematics, as well as a Bachelor of Arts in political science from the University of Florida in the United States, and Master of Science in global political economy from the London School of Economics (LSE), United Kingdom.

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Carlos Cardenas

Carlos Cardenas, Director of Latin America Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting, is responsible for the generation of commercially relevant political and violent risks forecasts for a variety of sectors in Latin America, including energy, manufacturing, mining and insurance. He manages a team of Latin American experts, as well as a remote network of contributors based in the region, covering risks such as expropriation, non-payment, contract frustration, civil unrest, business disruption and security-related risks (extortion, kidnapping, crime and terrorism). Mr. Cardenas has also worked and delivered numerous consulting projects for a variety of clients interested in understanding the role of stakeholders and risks at the project level in Latin America. His areas of expertise include petroleum policy and economics, public governance in natural resource rich countries, international relations, criminal dynamics in Latin America and political economy. He holds a BA in International Studies from Universidad Central de Venezuela (Magna Cum-Laude), an MA in International Political Economy from Birmingham University (distinction) and an LLM in Petroleum Law and Policy (distinction) from Dundee University.

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