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Integrity Due Diligence

Understanding counterparty risk is one of the most important first steps in a successful project or investment, especially in emerging markets where the real drivers of risk are rarely found on balance sheets.

Our counterparty risk assessments provide forward-looking analysis of reputational, legal and political risks associated with new or existing counterparts. We draw on our unparalleled intelligence collection infrastructure and in-country experts to support compliance, governance and business development teams in their due diligence process. Our understanding of local dynamics and stakeholders allow us to place reputational risk in the right current and future context to answer:

  • Will this counterparty expose our client to FCPA or other anti-corruption legislation?
  • Will the counterparty expose our client to payment risk, contract risk or reputational risk?
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The IHS Markit Difference

Deliverables
  • The country context - Comparative risk scores for compliance and political risk exposure for the country compared to the region or our client’s portfolio countries

  • Company background - Structure, entities, owners and positioning within the local political and social context

  • Integrity risk indicators - Complex or unusual legal structures, unusual or unexpected profile or clients or revenue streams, civil action and litigation history of company or key principals, criminal activity/wrongdoing, including corruption allegations, charges and convictions, restrictions or sanctions against key principals, lifestyle of key principals incommensurate with position

  • Contract and payment risk indicators - Formal and informal connections with government officials and/or departments that would expose the company or individuals to likely recriminatory action if political influence shifts; formal and informal connections to currently exposed individuals in the country that increases the likelihood of discrimination by the current government

  • Contextual judgment - Expert analysis of the overall likely risk exposure associated with the company or individual in the specific country context, over the one-three-year outlook

Data, analysis and expertise

Forecast

We provide an integrity-focused investigation that looks at current exposures, as well as likely future exposures. We understand how your local partners may expose you to legal, reputational and contract risks not only today but if political dynamics shift in the country.

All-source investigative approach

Our dedicated intelligence collection team and human source network of over 800 carefully vetted individuals provide local insight and interpretation. We provide an informed view in countries where online information is scarce and diligence services turn up little. We can help you understand what the information – or lack of information – means in the specific country context and how it affects your exposure.

Layered expert audit

We ensure sound logic and highest quality analysis. Our investigations are undertaken by a team of senior analysts, not a single-analyst desktop search. You can provide assurance to senior management when presenting our findings as an input to decision making.

Discretion

We understand best practice for investigation in a specific location and sector. Our trusted investigative approach does not put our client, counterparty or investigator at risk.

Recent work

Our approach has allowed us to uncover some very hard to find but vital red flags for Go/No Go investment decisions by our clients. For example:

  • Contextual knowledge of Russian company structures enabled us to identify an entity operating under false credentials
  • Our local investigator’s visit to a counter-party’s alleged physical address in Ghana found no such entity on the premises bringing in to question the credibility of the company
  • We uncovered credible links to gem smuggling by a prospective partner of a financial services client in Myanmar

Experts

Natznet Tesfay

Her areas of specialization include analysis of political developments affecting the offshore energy sector in West Africa, particularly Nigeria; commercial developments, especially in mining, energy, and infrastructure in East Africa; and piracy risks in the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Guinea. Ms. Tesfay leads the development of the Africa risk indicator and horizon scanning infrastructure, drawing on a range of methodologies such as geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. She supports business growth across the continent, advising C-level executives on market entry, stakeholder engagement and risk management, and African governments on leveraging their natural resource potential for sustained economic growth. In 2017, Ms. Tesfay was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. She regularly speaks in major media outlets and at high-level conferences. Previously, at Exclusive Analysis she managed the Africa intelligence team of in-country analysts and sources, as well as Exclusive Analysis's Johannesburg office. She also advised municipal governments on sustainably developing megacities and national governments on the development of free trade zones, foreign policy and the mining sector in East Africa. Ms. Tesfay's degrees include a BA in Government from Harvard University and a MSc in Urbanization and Development from the London School of Economics.

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Carlos Cardenas

Mr. Cardenas, Director of Latin America Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting, is responsible for the generation of commercially relevant political and violent risks forecasts for a variety of sectors in Latin America, including energy, manufacturing, mining and insurance. He manages a team of Latin American experts, as well as a remote network of contributors based in the region, covering risks such as expropriation, non-payment, contract frustration, civil unrest, business disruption and security-related risks (extortion, kidnapping, crime and terrorism). Mr. Cardenas has also worked and delivered numerous consulting projects for a variety of clients interested in understanding the role of stakeholders and risks at the project level in Latin America. His areas of expertise include petroleum policy and economics, public governance in natural resource rich countries, international relations, criminal dynamics in Latin America and political economy. He holds a BA in International Studies from Universidad Central de Venezuela (Magna Cum-Laude), an MA in International Political Economy from Birmingham University (distinction) and an LLM in Petroleum Law and Policy (distinction) from Dundee University.

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Firas Modad

Mr. Modad focuses on the conflict between Turkey, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia and how it shapes security and political risks in the region and terrorism risks in the West. He has also studied the rise of Islamist militant and non-militant groups, their ideology, their capabilities and their communication strategies. Currently, he is focused on the risk of another wave of unrest in MENA, the migrant flows it would trigger and its impact on terrorism. Mr. Modad has briefed executives and directors in insurance the insurance and energy sectors, as well as C-level executives at blue chip firms with interests and operations in MENA. He has helped clients understand the rise of the Islamic State, the conflicts in Libya, Syria and Iraq, risks in Egypt and the conflict between Israel, Iran and the Arabs. Mr. Modad also makes regular appearances on the media, and has been interviewed by Reuters, Bloomberg, the BBC, CNN, ABC News, and others. Mr. Modad holds a Bachelor of Arts in economics from the American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon, and a Master of Science in International Management for the Middle East and North Africa from the University of London in the United Kingdom.

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Keerti Rajan

The Integrated Research team works with our experts to combine proprietary data and insights from across economics, country risk, and industry teams to create holistic, forward-looking analysis that helps our clients make effective business decisions. He has previously led the Asia-Pacific desk and the Political Risk desk for our Country Risk team where he was responsible for the global calibration of political and business risks and development of the Country Risk team's methodology. Before joining IHS Markit, he assessed systemic credit and liquidity risks to UK financial stability for the Bank of England; built stochastic models to forecast capital adequacy for financial companies at Moore Stephens Consulting; and worked in RBS's equity derivatives business.He earned a Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Cambridge with a thesis on the social epidemiology of income inequality in India. His previous academic work compared Indonesia and Malaysia during the Asian Financial Crisis.

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