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Life Sciences

Healthcare Modeling and Scenario Analysis

Plan with accuracy and efficiency

Do you need to quantify how demographics, disease prevalence, socioeconomic factors, and policy changes will impact demand for health care products, services and providers?

Do you need customized market analysis to predict potential for your therapeutic solution?

Do you need to quantify the health and economic value of your therapeutic solution?

Our microsimulation models are used to provide critical support in market planning, scenario analysis and healthcare regulation solutions. We are with you every step of the way to resolve challenges of any scale and any time frame so you can:
  • Estimate future disease prevalence and burden
  • Quantify the health and economic value of therapeutic solutions designed to prevent or manage chronic health conditions
  • Source essential workforce planning needs
  • Factor anticipated health care costs into strategic plans and hospital operational models
  • Improve sales and revenue forecasting
  • Quantify the implications of industry and public policy changes
  • Understand the impact of climate change on population health

Service Offerings

Microsimulation Modeling
Our Healthcare Demand Microsimulation Model can be formulated to model disease burden, estimate future chronic diseases, and predict workforce/product/service demand and medical costs
Benefit: Substantiate strategic plans and management strategies in hospitals

Market Planning and Scenario Analysis
Tools to size markets, quantify key drivers, benchmark performance and "wind tunnel" test multiple strategies under alternative outlooks
Benefit: Maximize your return on sales and marketing investments

Regulatory Impact Analysis
Benefit: Quantify the impact of new regulation on product sales, company performance and investment profitability, including acquisitions

Global Climate Models (GCMs)
The model considers different sets of future concentrations of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other climate forces to project what might happen in the future
Benefit: Quantify impacts of climate-friendly plans and activities, forecasting costs to companies of climate change, predicting climate-changed related disease and illness to estimate market for products associated with avoiding addressing these effects

Recent Projects

Health system planning

Challenge
Hospital systems sometimes require data and expertise to support infrastructure development, growth strategies, and workforce planning​

Solution
Used forecasting models for future demand for health care services and providers under alternative scenarios, accounting for changing demographics, trends in care delivery, strategies to improve population health, and market share expansion​

Results
Client used study results to inform the size of replacement hospital to be built and the possibility of a potential hospital acquisition 

Corporate financing feasibility studies of advanced medical technology

Challenge
A major industry trade groups needed to quantify the health outcomes impact of transposing different oncology drug access frameworks associated with alternative jurisdictions to the US market

Solution
The team constructed a Markov model of patients with locally advanced and metastatic NSCLC. The model base case projected the health outcomes of the study population under the US drug access landscape. In scenario analyses, drug access policies from Australia, Canada, France, Germany, South Korea and the United Kingdom were applied to the US patient population to quantify the impact on number of deaths, life years and quality-adjusted life years

Results
The client used key findings from the model to inform its lobbying and stakeholder engagement efforts, working to highlight potential risks to patient outcomes amidst ongoing debates over HTA policy in the US

Solve Your Business Challenge

Challenge Solution
I need to anticipate future supply and demand for physicians, nurses, and other healthcare providers.
Our healthcare workforce microsimulation models quantify future health workforce supply adequacy accounting for trends in supply and demand determinants.
I need to quantify the value of a disease prevention or treatment program to demonstrate value to payers.
Our Disease Prevention Microsimulation Model quantifies the value of preventive care to a specified population in a risk-free environment and quantifies return on investment.
I need customized market analysis to predict potential for my therapeutic solution.
Our Healthcare Demand Microsimulation Model estimates the future demand for healthcare products and services to quantify the impact of changing demographics, disease prevalence, socioeconomic factors, trends in care delivery, and potential policy changes down to the US county level.
I need to quantify the economic and population health implications of alternative energy and transportation solutions accounting for their pollution and climate impact.
Our Pollution and Climate Change Health Outcomes Model predicts the impact of pollution and climate change on morbidity, mortality and healthcare expenditures.
I need to anticipate future supply and demand for physicians, nurses, and other healthcare providers.
Our healthcare workforce microsimulation models quantify future health workforce supply adequacy accounting for trends in supply and demand determinants.

Publications

Experts

5 Experts

Timothy Dall

​A trained health economist, he brings more than 20 years of experience conducting research and policy analysis in the areas of health economics and outcomes, health workforce, health care delivery and disease cost and prevention. His work applies economic theory, statistical and econometric analysis, cost/benefit analysis, program evaluation, and computer modeling skills. Much of his work uses microsimulation modeling to address complex forecasting and policy issues. Applied research conducted by Mr. Dall supports strategic planning and advocacy work for governments, associations, life sciences companies, payers, provider networks, and non-profit organizations. He has published widely in peer-reviewed journals. Mr. Dall earned his Master of Science in Labor Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, US, and his Bachelor of Science in Economics from Utah State University, Logan, Utah, US.

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Cameron Lockwood

Mr. Lockwood collaborates with colleagues across Life Sciences and other teams to look at information and data rich solutions addressing cli

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Milena Izmirlieva

Ms. Izmirlieva heads the Life Sciences research team which comprises senior analysts, analysts and health economists covering developed and

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Gustav Ando

Mr. Ando oversees the development of IHS Markit's global healthcare outlook analysis that focuses on market access, cost of healthcare and n

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