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Global Scenarios

Position your organization for success in an uncertain future

Executives are increasingly asked to test business strategies against different potential future environments. IHS Markit Global Scenarios draw on the unrivalled insight and expertise of research and analysis across our energy, automotive, and technology groups. They help organizations prepare for the future by examining the key forces that will shape the global business environment in the years ahead, and the implications for the energy industry and energy users.

Shifts in the global landscape will have important implications for strategic decisions about investments, market entry and exit, and commodity sourcing, marketing, and trading. Using independent, integrated, and quantified scenarios allows the organization to plan effectively in times of change.

Global Scenarios Framework and Deliverables

At the heart of the service are three distinct, quantified, and transparent long term outlooks. Each scenario explores a plausible future for economic growth and policy, politics, trade, security, technology, and energy demand, mix, and supply to 2050. The service narratives provide the foundation for our global outlooks for oil, natural gas, coal, renewables, and electric power. Scenarios are quantified in data sets with annual, regional, sectoral, and fuel-level detail.

The three IHS Markit Global Scenarios were developed with direct input from IHS Markit experts and clients from a broad range of industries and perspectives, who identify the key uncertainties about the global economy, politics, security, and energy resources.

Global Scenarios

Rivalry, the IHS Markit “planning scenario,” describes a world of increasing competition for political and economic power as the world transitions to a more multipolar world with broader distribution of wealth and influence. This increased competition plays out in the energy industry as growing rivalry among energy sources drives fundamental shifts in the fuels and technologies used in transportation and electric power generation.

Vertigo considers a volatile future in which global political and economic uncertainty is endemic, resulting in a perennially risk-averse environment that is focused on short term profit maximization and cost containment. This leads to frequent time lags in capital investment that cause chronic mismatches between demand and supply. While innovation moves forward, the world does not efficiently adjust to the impacts of technology on labor markets and the broader economy, adding to the atmosphere of instability and imbalance.

Autonomy considers a world in which a powerful combination of policy, market and social forces pushes technology and consumer behavior in ways that transform the global energy system. The world moves increasingly away from centralized, traditional sources of energy, toward new sources of indigenous energy production that meet local energy needs in changing ways.

Deliverables

Online Access to all Service Datasets/Reports and Phone Access to IHS Markit Research Staff

Global Scenarios Report and Macroeconomic Dataset

Quarterly Updates
Scenario Signposts and Key Data Elements (5-year outlooks for select fuels prices/GDP growth rates for the world, major regions and select countries)

Biannual Global Energy Watch
Integrated view from across IHS Markit of key energy issues

Annual Updates
Includes summary report/slide deck explaining key drivers and changes in annual dataset update for these concepts:

  • Population and GDP
  • Primary Energy
  • Oil and Natural Gas
  • Coal
  • Electric Power
  • CO2
  • Upstream Oil/Gas Capital Cost
  • Key indicators (labor productivity, exchange rates, interest rates, trade, savings rates, etc.)
  • Global Scenarios Analytics
    Data visualization tool in a dynamic, interactive visual format

Coverage

 Global Scenarios FrameworkEnergy Scenarios

Data

Scope: global, high-level regional, sector, and major country

  • CO2 Prices
  • Crude Oil Prices
  • Population
  • Macroeconomic Data

Scope: global, in-depth regional, sector, major country, and key benchmark prices

  • Crude Oil/Product Markets
  • Natural Gas Markets
  • Coal Markets
  • Electric Power Markets
  • CAPEX Investment
  • CO2 Prices/ Emissions
Analysis

Scope: global, high-level regional, sector, and major country

  • Geopolitics/Security
  • Environment/Climate Change Policy
  • Trade Policy
  • Demographics
  • Macroeconomics
  • Technology
  • Energy

Scope: global, in-depth regional, sector, and major country

  • Global Trends
  • Energy Supply/ Demand (by sector/ region)
  • CO2 Emissions
  • Capital Expenditures/Costs
  • Strategic Implications

How Can Your Organization Benefit?

  • Create an economic, energy, and political outlook for your annual planning or budget exercise
  • Develop alternative strategies or mitigation plans to prepare for unforeseen changes in the business environment
  • Monitor scenario signposts for "early warning" indicators about potential shifts to an alternative scenario
  • Become more flexible in thinking about the future and more attentive to "weak signals"
  • Avoid the paralysis that can result--in the face of uncertainty and conflicting data—with a single forecast
  • Develop a common language for internally discussing the future
  • Helps organizations to better communicate possible business environment changes to stakeholders
  • Create robust, flexible strategies that will withstand dramatically different market conditions
  • Identify unforeseen risks of entering a new sector or changing strategic direction
  • Harness the collective insight and capabilities of IHS Markit in a cost-effective format
  • Benchmark strategic assumptions
  • Follow global long-term megatrends that impact your organization's future
  • Complement existing macroeconomic forecasts by identifying game changers
  • Enhance competitive edge by recognizing early signposts that call for strategic review
  • Factor qualitative and quantitative variables into your planning

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