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From Fuels to Chemicals: Navigating the energy transition, integration technologies and future markets

The energy transition is no longer part of a distant forecast but has arrived in many places around the world. This change will impact the refinery and petrochemical industries in profound way. The refining industry will face unprecedented challenges as the transportation sector reinvents itself and the demand for fuels no longer supports the current refinery setup.

This study addresses IHS Markit’s view on the complex product and feedstocks balance of the integrated downstream system under future scenarios.

This study will enable stakeholders to:

  • Decide which technologies to invest in
  • Determine how to construct new refineries
  • Compare strategic position versus competitors
  • Forecast future margins and profitability based on different infrastructure options

Study deliverables include

  • Strategic industry analysis for refinery and petrochemical integration, from a consolidated full value chain review from crude oil, refined products and chemical feedstocks to key basic petrochemicals such as plastics/polymers and aromatics
  • Demand analysis across refined products and key petrochemicals
    • Key analysis will be considered using two different scenarios “Rivalry” (IHS Markit base case) and “Autonomy” (IHS Markit accelerated progression towards circularity case)
    • Technology and economic evaluation across greenfield “crude to chemicals” vs. incremental brownfield investments
    • Supply capacity and integration
    • Pricing/margins in one single study
    • Detailed supply analysis at the regional level, including incremental adjustments to brownfield assets, as well as addition of greenfield supply
  • Alternative supply analysis sensitivity to gauge size of major uncertainties
  • Datasets for global regions from 2010 through 2050 including:
    • Refining, petrochemical and integrated downstream capacities and projects for traditional and new integration processes
    • Benchmark economics for assessed refinery and petrochemical configuration options
    • Main refined product balances, prices and price/margin relationships
    • Supply/Demand balances and prices

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