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Foresight Intelligence: Risk intelligence for Government and National Security

Supporting Governments and National Security organizations with accessible, shareable security dynamics and outlooks anchored in local insight

The global pandemic and ongoing trade wars have emphasized the need for intelligence analysts to have an accessible, shareable and holistic view of the factors shaping agendas and activity globally – whether by state or non-state actors. Geopolitical uncertainty is front of mind not just for political and security analysts but for decision-makers across departments. Together, they must understand how events will unfold, who the critical actors are, and what the impacts are likely to be in order to set effective and pro-active policy.

The Foresight Intelligence service helps national security teams identify, predict and act on today's complex, interconnected risk drivers. Our solutions provide granular forecasts and location specific risk analysis, alongside geopolitical analysis and scenarios that connect security to wider political, economics and industry dynamics. We leverage structured intelligence methodology alongside cutting-edge innovation for the application of data, analytics and modelling to provide a credible, independent view of the evolving security risk environment.

Is Turkey seeking to escalate confrontation with Greece to drive negotiations or armed conflict? Analysis of Turkey-Greece maritime disruption
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Combining the world's richest datasets and the largest network of local experts, award-winning analysts and data scientists, the Foresight Intelligence platform enables intelligence professionals to:

  • Map interdependent developments across geographies, economies, and industries: Spot and evaluate change early to enable pro-active responses with forward-looking view of political, economic, legal, tax, operational and security risks globally.
  • Understand location-specific threat environments: We assess and score security risk at a granular local level, providing risk scores for every 500m X 500m globally to help our clients understand the threat to them.
  • Anticipate change: Foresight Intelligence delivers relevant indicators of the future security environment to decision makers, highlighting changing dynamics and anticipated impacts early enough for those risks to be addressed.
  • Monitor activity and risk trends: The quantified threat metrics, granular forecasts, and location specific intelligence events provide actionable inputs for strategic monitoring of risk and trends to enable early diplomatic engagement where necessary
  • Communicate effectively internally: Foresight Intelligence’s analysis is concise, actionable, and always forward-looking. It empowers intelligence teams to communicate effectively with other departments and governments using open source data and insight.

What's Included

Country-level risk quantification
Forward-looking country risk scores

Turn qualitative country risk information into quantitative risk analysis and scores. Quantify the risk environment with detailed scores for 8 aggregate and 28 sub-aggregate categories for 211 countries. Includes Government instability, Terrorism, Interstate and Civil war, Protests & riots, Criminal violence, plus others forecasting the country’s Legal, Operational and Economic outlook. Customize weights to the Overall country score to pinpoint risk for those aspects of most direct interest. See all risk categories in a single view or switch between Risk Views with a Security or Strategic focus.

Geospatial risk quantification
Location-specific political violence risk scores

Scores for civil unrest, terrorism and war risk for every 500m x 500m with presented in an interactive risk heat map. Crime risk now added to reflect evolving Duty of Care parameters and criminal violence / terrorism nuance in certain countries.

 

Custom geography scores and intelligence

Track risk for the specific geographies that matter to you. Draw custom geographies on the risk map, generate an average location risk score for the defined area and capture security intelligence events and receive alerts when these change.

 

Route risk scores and intelligence

Understand risk along a transport route to inform planning. Generate an average risk score for a route on the risk map, plus points along the route; capture nearby security intelligence events and receive alerts when these change.

 

Location Analytics

Visualize and risk score your global assets of interest and networks with our custom location intelligence tool. Upload up to 200,000 locations and company-specific data to generate political violence scores for each asset, conduct quick portfolio analytics, add as a layer on our interactive risk map and set up alerts for security incidents occurring within a designated distance from each asset.

Intelligence data, analytics and monitoring
Intelligence events stream

Curated daily intelligence feed for security-relevant incidents and indicators. Around 4,000 new intelligence events published each week. Database of over 2,000,000 events.

 

Global Security and Global Attack Trend dashboards

Quickly understand the specific nature of security risks at specific locations and how it has changed over time. Our dashboards enable analytics of security events and leverage enhanced metadata for attack location, type, target types, actor and tactics.

 

Cyber risk
Compare and quantify the environment for cyber attacks as part of regular security risk evaluations 

Our country-risk-centered approach to cyber risk aims to address the country context and high-level picture of cyber risk, to be assessed in the context of other security risks. Entities can be targeted directly or suffer indirect disruption from attacks on a country’s Critical National Infrastructure (CNI).

  • Impacts include damage, disruption and theft.
  • Global comparisons for 211 countries – both quantitative and qualitative. Based on: 1) the extent to which commercial operations and infrastructure in each country is a likely target for cyberattacks; 2) state capability to prevent & respond effectively to cyberattacks; 3) how dependent a state’s CNI is on systems that are vulnerable to cyberattack; 4) how aware the population is of cyberattack risks and the practice of good ‘digital hygiene’.
  • Help to foresee potential impacts and allocate resources and budget.
  • Threat actor profiles identify common target sets. Includes national-state aligned cyber actors, cyber criminals and hacktivists. Covers their organization, intent, capability and target sets.
  • Valuable compliment to other potential internal and external information sources.
Insight and analysis
Detailed country reports, special reports, hot topics and headline analysis

Comprehensive, in-depth country reports as well as daily analysis of key developments, events and trends, and their impact on security and the operating environment in 211 countries and territories.

COVID-19 insights and tools

Our proprietary COVID-19 Vulnerability Index measures the potential disruption of economic, political and operational activity as a result of the virus. It combines country-level measures of vulnerability such as capacities of health system, the demographic structure of society and trade openness with measures of resilience such as effectiveness of the state and fiscal capacity.

Daily headline analysis article from our dedicated life sciences team examines latest infection rates as well as developments with vaccines, treatments and diagnostics. Their weekly R&D tracker highlights the candidates for treatments and vaccines against COVID-19.

 

Enhanced country and economic risk strategic planning

Monitor emerging risks to the investment climate and broader operating environment, which potentially impact on the state or sub-state level security environment.

Interrogate key economic data pertinent to your own requirements
  • Conduct your own analysis by leveraging our deep coverage of each economy
  • History and 5-year forecast outlook 
  • Key headline indicators for each economy
  • Data concept coverage includes GDP, output, prices, exchange rates, financial and monetary indicators, government sector, external

 

Sovereign risk analysis

Independent credit risk assessments for 206 countries to evaluate the potential for default on sovereign debt.

  • Set country limits for loan, investment portfolio
  • Identify short-term credit opportunities, risks
  • Accuracy – ahead of rating agencies

Detailed scores and analysis for:

  • Solvency ratios
  • Liquidity (short-term and medium-term)
  • Economic policy impacts
  • Political factors
  • Extensive database of debt indicators with forecast
  • Consistent database back to Q1, 2006
Delivery and workflow tools
Connect®

Access your subscription through our highly customizable web platform
  • Interactive mapping functionality with multiple security risk layers
  • Report builder
  • Organized content views for a broader perspective on countries, regions, industries
  • Easy-to-use search capability
  • 24/7/365 access anywhere, anytime from laptop or mobile device

 

Application Programming Interface (API) feed

Speak to us about how best to access all your Foresight Intelligence risk intelligence through API to ingest into your own or third-party platforms supporting your workflows.

Custom alerts and newsletters

Set up custom alerts that capture the addition of or updates to the content most relevant to you and your operations. Select from a range of curated daily, weekly, monthly and ad-hoc bulletins and newsletters.

Experts

Natznet Tesfay

Her areas of specialization include analysis of political developments affecting the offshore energy sector in West Africa, particularly Nigeria; commercial developments, especially in mining, energy, and infrastructure in East Africa; and piracy risks in the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Guinea. Ms. Tesfay leads the development of the Africa risk indicator and horizon scanning infrastructure, drawing on a range of methodologies such as geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. She supports business growth across the continent, advising C-level executives on market entry, stakeholder engagement and risk management, and African governments on leveraging their natural resource potential for sustained economic growth. In 2017, Ms. Tesfay was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. She regularly speaks in major media outlets and at high-level conferences. Previously, at Exclusive Analysis she managed the Africa intelligence team of in-country analysts and sources, as well as Exclusive Analysis's Johannesburg office. She also advised municipal governments on sustainably developing megacities and national governments on the development of free trade zones, foreign policy and the mining sector in East Africa. Ms. Tesfay's degrees include a BA in Government from Harvard University and a MSc in Urbanization and Development from the London School of Economics.

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Firas Modad

Mr. Modad focuses on the conflict between Turkey, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia and how it shapes security and political risks in the region and terrorism risks in the West. He has also studied the rise of Islamist militant and non-militant groups, their ideology, their capabilities and their communication strategies. Currently, he is focused on the risk of another wave of unrest in MENA, the migrant flows it would trigger and its impact on terrorism. Mr. Modad has briefed executives and directors in insurance the insurance and energy sectors, as well as C-level executives at blue chip firms with interests and operations in MENA. He has helped clients understand the rise of the Islamic State, the conflicts in Libya, Syria and Iraq, risks in Egypt and the conflict between Israel, Iran and the Arabs. Mr. Modad also makes regular appearances on the media, and has been interviewed by Reuters, Bloomberg, the BBC, CNN, ABC News, and others. Mr. Modad holds a Bachelor of Arts in economics from the American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon, and a Master of Science in International Management for the Middle East and North Africa from the University of London in the United Kingdom.

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Carlos Cardenas

Mr. Cardenas, Director of Latin America Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting, is responsible for the generation of commercially relevant political and violent risks forecasts for a variety of sectors in Latin America, including energy, manufacturing, mining and insurance. He manages a team of Latin American experts, as well as a remote network of contributors based in the region, covering risks such as expropriation, non-payment, contract frustration, civil unrest, business disruption and security-related risks (extortion, kidnapping, crime and terrorism). Mr. Cardenas has also worked and delivered numerous consulting projects for a variety of clients interested in understanding the role of stakeholders and risks at the project level in Latin America. His areas of expertise include petroleum policy and economics, public governance in natural resource rich countries, international relations, criminal dynamics in Latin America and political economy. He holds a BA in International Studies from Universidad Central de Venezuela (Magna Cum-Laude), an MA in International Political Economy from Birmingham University (distinction) and an LLM in Petroleum Law and Policy (distinction) from Dundee University.

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Deepa Kumar

Ms. Kumar leads political, operational and security risk analysis for multiple Asia-Pacific countries, primarily India, Myanmar and Nepal, as an analyst for the IHS Markit Country Risk team, having previously also covered Indonesia and Malaysia. Her areas of expertise include electoral politics, stakeholder analysis and assessing changing regulatory dynamics in emerging economies. Previously, she was an entrepreneur in New Delhi focused on promoting participatory policymaking by facilitating dialogue between members of parliament and citizens in India. Ms. Kumar holds a Master of Public Policy degree from the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford, United Kingdom. She also holds a First-Class Bachelor of Arts in Political Science, with minors in English literature and Economics from the St. Xavier's College, Mumbai. She is fluent in English and four Indian languages including Hindi, Marathi, Tamil and Gujarati, and a beginner in Arabic.

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