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Economics & Country Risk

Foresight Security: Risk intelligence for corporate security

Curated forward-looking insights and risk analysis and data to build and maintain a best-in-class corporate security function within your organization

Business may be global, but security is almost always local. Corporate security managers increasingly face questions that require geo-referenced, risk tagged, actionable intelligence combined with highly proprietary data on their organization’s operational footprint, business cadence and personnel locations around the world.

Designed for pro-active corporate security teams our Foresight Corporate Security service provides granular forecasts and location-specific risk analysis for 211 countries and territories, and enables security professionals to:

  • Understand location-specific threat environments: We assess and score security risk at a granular local level, providing risk scores for every 500m X 500m globally to help our clients understand the threat to them.
  • Anticipate change: Foresight delivers relevant indicators of the future business environment to decision makers, highlighting changing operational and security environments early enough for those risks to be efficiently managed.
  • Monitor risk exposures: The quantified threat metrics, granular forecasts, and location specific intelligence events provide actionable inputs for strategic monitoring of risk exposures with the ability to track your specific operational footprint globally.
  • Communicate effectively internally: Foresight’s analysis is concise, actionable and commercially relevant. It empowers more than 100 corporate security teams to support their business grow profitably and safely.


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What’s Included

Country-level security risk quantification
Forward-looking country risk scores

Turn qualitative country risk information into quantitative risk analysis and scores. Covers risks to property from protests and riots, terrorism, interstate and civil war, as well as risks to individuals, cargo and transport, criminal violence and the general business environment.


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Geospatial risk quantification
Location-specific political violence risk scores

Scores for civil unrest, terrorism and war risk for every 500m x 500m with presented in an interactive risk heat map. Crime risk now added to reflect evolving Duty of Care parameters and criminal violence / terrorism nuance in certain countries.


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Custom geography scores and intelligence

Track risk for the specific geographies that matter to you. Draw custom geographies on the risk map, generate an average location risk score for the defined area and capture security intelligence events and receive alerts when these change.


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Route risk scores and intelligence

Understand risk along a transport route to inform planning. Generate an average risk score for a route on the risk map, plus points along the route; capture nearby security intelligence events and receive alerts when these change.


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Location Analytics

Visualize and risk score your global assets of interest and networks with our custom location intelligence tool. Upload up to 200,000 locations and company-specific data to generate political violence scores for each asset, conduct quick portfolio analytics, add as a layer on our interactive risk map and set up alerts for security incidents occurring within a designated distance from each asset.


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Intelligence data, analytics and monitoring
Intelligence events stream

Curated daily intelligence feed for security-relevant incidents and indicators. Around 4,000 new intelligence events published each week. Database of over 2,000,000 events.


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Global Security and Global Attack Trend dashboards

Quickly understand the specific nature of security risks at specific locations and how it has changed over time. Our dashboards enable analytics of security events and leverage enhanced metadata for attack location, type, target types, actor and tactics.


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Insight and analysis
Detailed country reports, special reports, hot topics and headline analysis

Comprehensive, in-depth country reports as well as daily analysis of key developments, events and trends, and their impact on the security and environment in 211 countries and territories.

COVID-19 insights and tools

Our proprietary COVID-19 Vulnerability Index measures the potential disruption of economic, political and operational activity as a result of the virus. It combines country-level measures of vulnerability such as capacities of health system, the demographic structure of society and trade openness with measures of resilience such as effectiveness of the state and fiscal capacity.

Daily headline analysis article from our dedicated life sciences team examines latest infection rates as well as developments with vaccines, treatments and diagnostics. Their weekly R&D tracker highlights the candidates for treatments and vaccines against COVID-19.


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Enhanced country and economic risk strategic planning

Subscribe to Foresight Security Premium and monitor emerging risks to the investment climate and broader operating environment

Additional risk scores and analysis help risk teams go beyond security risk impacts to assess risks to the broader business and operating environments
  • Detailed political and operational risk scores allow for more precise evaluation of the impacts of policy and regulatory changes
  • Risk scores of each country's legal and tax environments can inform project assessments, ongoing evaluation requirements
  • Economic risk assessments and scores allow for systematic monitoring of recession, inflation and capital transfer risk levels


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Identify the economic drivers of growth in key markets
  • More effectively evaluate the impact of economic fluctuations on your business
  • Regularly updated analysis of economic developments for each country
  • Data concept coverage includes GDP, output, prices, exchange rates, FDI (Foreign direct investment), financial and monetary indicators, external debt
  • History and 5-year forecast outlook


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Sovereign risk scores help flag credit, non-payments risk

Independent credit risk scores for 206 countries enable clients to assess credit and non-payments risk for key markets easily.

  • Track score changes from IHS Markit as well as ratings agencies of record (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch) with analysis of score changes by our team of experts
  • Use IHS Markit’s Consensus score (incorporating IHS Markit views plus the Big 3 rating agencies)as a convenient, overall benchmark of risk

Detailed scores and analysis for:

  • Solvency ratios
  • Liquidity (short-term and medium-term)
  • Economic policy impacts
  • Political factors
  • Extensive database of debt indicators with forecast
  • Consistent database back to Q1, 2006


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Custom security exposure dashboard

Subscribe to Foresight Security Premium and examine your overall exposure and relative threats in a single, customized view.

Custom security exposure dashboard

Create a custom selection of scores for your assets and locations of interest, and intelligence event and trends around the locations. Calibrated through an interactive workshop and accessed through Connect.


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Cyber risk
Compare and quantify the environment for cyber attacks as part of regular security risk evaluations 
 
Our country-risk-centered approach to cyber risk aims to address the country context and high-level picture of cyber risk, to be assessed in the context of other security risks. Entities can be targeted directly or suffer indirect disruption from attacks on a country’s Critical National Infrastructure (CNI).
  • Impacts include damage, disruption and theft.
  • Global comparisons for 211 countries – both quantitative and qualitative. Based on: 1) the extent to which commercial operations and infrastructure in each country is a likely target for cyberattacks; 2) state capability to prevent & respond effectively to cyberattacks; 3) how dependent a state’s CNI is on systems that are vulnerable to cyberattack; 4) how aware the population is of cyberattack risks and the practice of good ‘digital hygiene.
  • Help to foresee potential impacts and allocate resources and budget.
  • Threat actor profiles identify common target sets. Includes national-state-aligned cyber actors, cybercriminals and hacktivists. Covers their organization, intent, capability and target sets.
  • Valuable compliment to other potential internal and external information sources.
Delivery and workflow tools

Connect®
Access your subscription through our highly customizable web platform

  • Interactive mapping functionality with multiple security risk layers
  • Report builder
  • Organized content views for a broader perspective on countries, regions, industries
  • Easy-to-use search capability
  • 24/7/365 access anywhere, anytime from laptop or mobile device

Security Risk API
Speak to us about how best to access all your Foresight Security risk intelligence through API to ingest into your own or third-party platforms supporting your workflows.


Custom alerts and newsletters
Set up custom alerts that capture the addition of or updates to the content most relevant to you and your operations. Select from a range of curated daily, weekly, monthly and ad-hoc bulletins and newsletters

The IHS Markit difference

Methodology and expertise
  • Managed by the largest team in the market – more than 110 dedicated country risk analysts and economists, 200 in-country analysts and 1,000 global sources
  • Rigorous forecasting tools and risk frameworks
  • Consistent record for forecasting accuracy, with analysis by full-time expert economists, political analysts and modelers
  • Inputs gathered from a network of in-country analysts, official sources, local and regional media, social media, and our extensive human source network
Expert Access
  • Direct email access to our team of country analysts and economists for insights on developments that could impact the risk environment
  • Exclusive invitations to regular webinars and events briefing on significant political, violent and economic risk trends
Custom Analysis from our consulting team

Our risk analysts can help frame security risks to your business environment with these additional services:

  • Stakeholder flagging: Identification of key project players/influencers
  • Agenda/pressure analysis: Impact analysis of stakeholder priorities and constituency demands
  • Stakeholder mapping: Early risk alerts and key players to engage
  • Scenario planning: Realistic country situational changes and operational impacts
  • Strategic planning: Stakeholder engagement and risk mitigation needed to sustain business operations

Experts

7 Experts

Natznet Tesfay

Her areas of specialization include analysis of political developments affecting the offshore energy sector in West Africa, particularly Nigeria; commercial developments, especially in mining, energy, and infrastructure in East Africa; and piracy risks in the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Guinea. Ms. Tesfay leads the development of the Africa risk indicator and horizon scanning infrastructure, drawing on a range of methodologies such as geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. She supports business growth across the continent, advising C-level executives on market entry, stakeholder engagement and risk management, and African governments on leveraging their natural resource potential for sustained economic growth. In 2017, Ms. Tesfay was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. She regularly speaks in major media outlets and at high-level conferences. Previously, at Exclusive Analysis she managed the Africa intelligence team of in-country analysts and sources, as well as Exclusive Analysis's Johannesburg office. She also advised municipal governments on sustainably developing megacities and national governments on the development of free trade zones, foreign policy and the mining sector in East Africa. Ms. Tesfay's degrees include a BA in Government from Harvard University and a MSc in Urbanization and Development from the London School of Economics.

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Firas Modad

Mr. Modad focuses on the conflict between Turkey, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia and how it shapes security and political risks in the region and terrorism risks in the West. He has also studied the rise of Islamist militant and non-militant groups, their ideology, their capabilities and their communication strategies. Currently, he is focused on the risk of another wave of unrest in MENA, the migrant flows it would trigger and its impact on terrorism. Mr. Modad has briefed executives and directors in insurance the insurance and energy sectors, as well as C-level executives at blue chip firms with interests and operations in MENA. He has helped clients understand the rise of the Islamic State, the conflicts in Libya, Syria and Iraq, risks in Egypt and the conflict between Israel, Iran and the Arabs. Mr. Modad also makes regular appearances on the media, and has been interviewed by Reuters, Bloomberg, the BBC, CNN, ABC News, and others. Mr. Modad holds a Bachelor of Arts in economics from the American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon, and a Master of Science in International Management for the Middle East and North Africa from the University of London in the United Kingdom.

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Carlos Cardenas

Mr. Cardenas, Director of Latin America Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting, is responsible for the generation of commercially relevant political and violent risks forecasts for a variety of sectors in Latin America, including energy, manufacturing, mining and insurance. He manages a team of Latin American experts, as well as a remote network of contributors based in the region, covering risks such as expropriation, non-payment, contract frustration, civil unrest, business disruption and security-related risks (extortion, kidnapping, crime and terrorism). Mr. Cardenas has also worked and delivered numerous consulting projects for a variety of clients interested in understanding the role of stakeholders and risks at the project level in Latin America. His areas of expertise include petroleum policy and economics, public governance in natural resource rich countries, international relations, criminal dynamics in Latin America and political economy. He holds a BA in International Studies from Universidad Central de Venezuela (Magna Cum-Laude), an MA in International Political Economy from Birmingham University (distinction) and an LLM in Petroleum Law and Policy (distinction) from Dundee University.

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Deepa Kumar

Ms. Kumar leads political, operational and security risk analysis for multiple Asia-Pacific countries, primarily India, Myanmar and Nepal, as an analyst for the IHS Markit Country Risk team, having previously also covered Indonesia and Malaysia. Her areas of expertise include electoral politics, stakeholder analysis and assessing changing regulatory dynamics in emerging economies. Previously, she was an entrepreneur in New Delhi focused on promoting participatory policymaking by facilitating dialogue between members of parliament and citizens in India. Ms. Kumar holds a Master of Public Policy degree from the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford, United Kingdom. She also holds a First-Class Bachelor of Arts in Political Science, with minors in English literature and Economics from the St. Xavier's College, Mumbai. She is fluent in English and four Indian languages including Hindi, Marathi, Tamil and Gujarati, and a beginner in Arabic.

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Research & Analysis

Podcasts

19 May 2022 21:09 min
15 May 2022 47:56 min
21 April 2022 24:10 min
02 April 2022 19:27 min
19 March 2022 20:39 min
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